NFL Draft 2011: Is Buffalo Bills Franchise QB Newton, Gabbert or Luck?
When do NFL general managers, head coaches and scouts really know that they have their future franchise quarterback identified? When you consider all of the variables that help to make up a complete quarterback, someone that performs at an elite level, what are some factors that are okay to come up short on? What are the red flags that you just can't afford to live with in your franchise quarterback?
These are the some bigger picture issues and problems that Buffalo Bills General Manager Buddy Nix and Head Coach Chan Gailey must be wrestling with as they continue to dig in and learn as much as they can about the quarterback prospects in the 2011 NFL Draft class.
From Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker to Andy Dalton, the Bills have to continue to dig deeper on each of these quarterbacks to understand their make up and what makes them tick.
But after all the analysis is said and done, what if the consensus says that none of them are the franchise answer we are looking for. There is the Andrew Luck debate to consider, and that is just one short year away. The Bills have waited for 15 years to find Jim Kelly's replacement. What is waiting one more year? In fact, if the 2012 Draft is also held on April 28th, 2012, today means there are 400 shopping days to Andrew Luck and counting. Let the countdown begin.
The Bills Are Doing Their Due Dilligence
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On the evening before the college pro days of both Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert, Buddy Nix dined with both quarterbacks. He was there first hand to watch their workouts. Chan Gailey prefers to meet the quarterbacks at the Bills facilities, where he can put them through a private workout, and talk X's and O's with the players at length behind closed doors.
Conducting background checks, understanding the history of all the quarterbacks is just part of the process. You dig deep enough and you understand how people have coped with adversity, and find out if they make consistently good or consistently bad choices.
Coming to grips with their decision making processes, both on the field and off. What kind of a crowd do they run with, looking in to what kind of friends they have, is also revealing about what kind of person they are.
There is so much data to sort through, that it is little wonder that so many of these quarterback choices turn out to be bombs. The Bills have had more than their fair share of quarterback misses, with the most recent examples of J.P. Losman and Trent Edwards revealing that the guy that sets up the big board for the Bills, VP of College Scouting Tom Modrak, is not totally responsible for making the final call.
Who was responsible in the past is no longer the issue. Buddy Nix has gone on record to say that every pick from here on out is on him. He has the last call and the final word. It is good to have some kind of clarification on the mysterious ways of how the Bills War Room operates and functions.
Chan Gailey Heaping Lots of Praise on Both Gabbert and Newton
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During a recent interview in the past week, Chan Gailey was asked to assess what the future would hold in store for Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton. Gailey responded that he foresaw a bright future for both of them. He thinks they will be starting early in their careers and that they will still be starting late in to their careers as well.
So, trying to read the tea leaves, it sounds like Gailey does not think either quarterback will require an extraordinary amount of down time, or learning on the sidelines with the baseball cap and clipboard. He thinks that they will be able to grasp their job quickly, hit the field and keep their jobs. That is tall praise indeed.
So, the bi-product of those comments is that if either one of them happens to be picked by the Bills, Gailey has already created the conception that they will be seeing the field sooner than later. If they struggle, something must be wrong with Gailey and his approach, since he envisions them as being successful and not needing that much down time to grow and develop.
I suppose Gailey was trying to be forthright in the interview and give an honest answer, but by doing so, he might have placed his own neck in the proverbial noose. At least Gailey has enough experience at creating an offense to take the talents of Gabbert and Newton and putting in an offensive scheme that would work based on the things that each quarterback does well.
Evaluating the Quarterbacks: Cam Newton
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Cam Newton generated 50 touchdowns this past season at Auburn. He is the Southern-modern day Paul Revere, 20 by ground and 30 by air. The ultimate dual-threat quarterback, Newton has all of the physical tools you could ask for. He has the body, the speed, the escapability factor and a strong arm.
Then you have the rest of Cam Newton. The accuracy issues in his scouting combine drills. The checkered past. The ego that seems to be growing by the week. The epic "Icon and Entertainer" comments. The way he conducts every interview with the lack of sincerity, looking away from the camera to answer, coming back to it at the end to flash the big smile, and referring to himself in the third person.
What would the future be like for any team that drafts Cam Newton? Will there be lengthy contract holdouts? Will he be sitting out much of the summer training camp while he waits for his agents to sign as big a deal as they possibly can? If there is not a salary cap placed on the NFL this year, and the rookie wages freeze is not yet in effect, Newton can hold up the NFL team that drafts him for a kings ransom.
Every time I hear Newton refer to himself, I think that this is a guy that is going to have a hard time in the locker room winning over the rest of his teammates. I also wonder aloud if this is the second coming of Matt Leinart, because after all, what kind of entertainer and icon calls it a night before midnight to turn in and study his playbook? Nightclubs, pictures with the starlets, and partying all seem to be part of his near future.
It is very possible that I have Newton completely wrong. He may start off on the wrong path and someone gets to him early on and he sees the error in his ways. But as long as he continues to project himself as the entertainer, I sincerely hope that the Carolina Panthers will put the Bills out of their misery and take him with the first overall pick. Then we never have to wonder; what if?
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Evaluating the Quarterbacks: Blaine Gabbert
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Which quarterback is the real Blaine Gabbert? Is he a reincarnation of Trent Edwards, or is he a potential franchise quarterback?
I was happy to see that he completed over 60 percent of his passes last year at Missouri, but not happy to see that he did so at the expense of throwing shorter passes than he did in 2009, by checking down more to his backs and secondary options. His yards per pass attempt went down from 8.07 in 2009 to 6.71 in 2010. That is a rather significant drop. Instead of throwing the ball down the field, he kept things closer to the line of scrimmage. You should be completing more passes if that is your main objective.
It is understood that you have to take what the defense gives you. That much is a given. But then you start to look at other factors that are stables in evaluating quarterbacks. In his two years as a starter at Missouri, Gabbert was better in his sophomore year. As a junior, his touchdown passes went down from 24 to 16. His QB passer rating went down from 140 to 127. His passing yards went down from 3593 to 3186. All of that and his interceptions didn't go down, they stayed the same, throwing 9 each year.
Gabbert looks the part. He is a very smooth interview, and has a good head on his shoulders. He says the right things. But the proof is in the pudding. Looking at the track record and the declining production numbers, it is hard to endorse him as the franchise quarterback that the Bills have been waiting for.
Expectations Level and Ramifications of Drafting a Quarterback in First Round
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Another angle to explore in this huge decision facing the Buffalo Bills is the question of establishing expectations. If you draft a quarterback in the first round, you are doing so because you expect a greater amount of production and impact from that pick, so fans are going to expect more out of him. Just ask J.P. Losman if you are not sure. He knows how the bar was raised and couldn't deliver up to the expectations that came with being a first-round draft pick.
With a defense that was found to be lacking in so many areas in 2010, the Bills have to consider the short term and long term ramifications of drafting a quarterback with the third overall pick. Whoever they select, either quarterback would be probably watching on the sidelines for the vast majority of the 2011 season. They would be observing Ryan Fitzpatrick, and taking snaps with the second team in practice.
The team would suffer as a result of not having an impact player on the field that could have been anybody from a Von Miller, Marcell Dareus, Patrick Peterson, Robert Quinn or Nick Fairley. Think about the Bills defense with one of the players from that group, and now consider it without any of them being inserted. That is another result of the consequences of drafting a quarterback with the third pick.
If the impact is felt on defense, then the impact will also be felt on the scoreboard. That also has to be a consideration for the Bills. The difference a first-round impact player makes on the field for the 2011 season, compared to a first-round pick that primarily comes to the game with a clipboard and a pencil.
The Future Fate of Ryan Fitzpatrick
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Bills fans came to love watching Ryan Fitzpatrick, the "Gunslinger", take on opposing defenses and attack them in Chan Gailey's offense last season, myself included. I admired his toughness, willingness to put his body in peril by throwing a block for a teammate and challenging defenders off his scrambles rather than sliding down to prevent a big hit.
Fitzpatrick breathed life back in to a Bills team that was in sore need of it. If anybody had watched the Bills' first two games of 2010, you would understand that people thought the Trent Edwards led-offense was boring and far from exciting. Fitzpatrick changed all that.
Fitzpatrick is going to be entering the final year of his contract in 2011. We have no way of knowing yet what the Bills will do with Fitzpatrick until the draft is completed.
If the Bills do not invest a draft pick on a quarterback until the sixth or seventh round again, it means that the Bills are probably considering signing Fitzpatrick to a longer term deal in 2012. If the Bills draft a quarterback in the first, second or third round, it might change the mentality to looking at a one or two year deal, to keep the position warm until the prospect is deemed ready to take over.
We also have to allow that each passing year of Fitzpatrick gaining valuable NFL experience, that his game will continue to grow and take additional steps up in the level of his play. Is there any quarterback smarter than Fitzpatrick in the NFL? If he continues to be allowed to operate in an exciting offense, with some strong weapons and an improving stable offensive line, why can't we envision that he could improve off of what he did in 2010? If so, could he improve again in 2012?
These are part of the unknown factors that make the decision about what to do so difficult.
What If the Bills Hold off Until the Second or Third Round for Their QB?
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Over the past several weeks, I have been advocating the selection of Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder when the Bills turn comes in the second round at number 34. But Bills fans need to know that the Ponder train is continuing to gain support and it would not surprise me if he is off the boards by the time the Bills are on the clock.
There is a very real possibility that some team will be willing to meet Bill Belichick's asking price and trade up to the 33rd spot, and snatch Ponder away from the Bills. So, if that happens, and Ponder was who the Bills were targeting, is there still time to regroup and go with Plan B?
Plan B could include the likes of Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker and/or Andy Dalton. I don't envision any other current QB in the current draft class as being of a franchise QB level outside of that group. How many of them will still be there in round two, and can any of them slide down to round three?
Whether or not they are drafted in round two or three, the mere fact that they were not first-round picks, takes a considerable amount of pressure off of the player from an expectations level. They can make adjustments and learn the game at a more reasonable pace and progress naturally, like the Green Bay Packers did with Aaron Rogers. They allowed him to sit and watch, and learn.
Between the polish of Ponder's game, to the dynamic throwing arm of Ryan Mallett, to the physical skills of Colin Kaepernick, the starting experience of Jake Locker and the winning leadership of Andy Dalton, each of these quarterbacks offers a degree of skills and upside that is worthy of strong consideration. But we don't know if any of them will ever be able of reaching that pinnacle of being a franchise quarterback.
Andrew Luck: Is He the Long Term Answer for the Buffalo Bills?
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This is a question that I have been asking myself more and more lately. Do the Bills have an Andrew Luck strategy already in place for the 2012 Draft? This would have to be more of an emergency plan or fall back option Plan C, but allow me to detail how this works.
Let's say that the Bills ultimately decide that they have one quarterback they have settled on for the pick at number three. Carolina steps up and selects that quarterback with the first pick. The Bills then go to Plan B, which is who they feel represents good value with the pick at 34.
They are excited to see that the guy is still there at the end of Day One. Day Two starts out with the Patriots announcing that they have traded away that pick, and the Bills second quarterback option is then selected by the team that acquired the Patriots pick.
At this point in time, the Bills could look at one of the other QB's we mentioned in the prior slide in the second round, or hope that somebody will drop to them in the third round at pick 68 (Colin Kaepernick ?). But maybe that should be the time where they implement the Andrew Luck Contingency Plan.
Carolina has gone on record as stating that they want a second round pick. Based on how the first round shakes out, and what players surprisingly fall to the second round, other teams will also be looking to trade up if possible. The Bills would have to receive a first round draft pick in 2012 to give up that pick. But if they are able to secure that kind of a return, that is what they might need to have in their hip pocket to secure Andrew Luck in 2012. Two first round draft choices.
Is that strategy that far-fetched?
Current Depth at Quarterback Is Alarming
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Bills fans should be concerned about the depth at quarterback on the Bills current roster. It is very difficult to see any scenario that the Bills would want to bring back Brian Brohm. Given one spot start in each of the past two seasons, Brohm did however have the majority of the 2010 season to be adjusted to the Bills offense under Gailey, and to run the second team in practice for most of the season.
With all of that additional exposure, he looked completely lost in his start and probably sealed his fate with that performance. So, that leaves seventh round rookie quarterback Levi Brown as the sole backup to Ryan Fitzpatrick. As soon as the draft has concluded, the Bills will know if they got their guy or not.
If they did not it will be crucial to land some sort of a veteran QB that can offer some kind of hope to allow the Bills to compete if Fitzpatrick were to miss any extended time due to injury. There are some options that will be hitting the street whenever free agency starts. Tarvaris Jackson would be an example of somebody that could come in and be a place holder at QB for the Bills.
But, I don't think there is anybody that thinks Levi Brown is ready to take over at QB anytime soon.
Decisions, Decisions
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If the Bills do trade away the 34th draft pick, it would also mean that you have one less impact player joining the Bills roster in 2011. Based on the depth of the 2011 draft, it appears that there could be some very strong impact-type players that would be available for the Bills there. So, just like drafting a quarterback at number three that won't immediately play, this is another strategy that would ultimately hurt the Bills 2011 season in terms of scoreboard and standings.
But if you have decided that Andrew Luck is the ultimate piece of the jigsaw puzzle that you are missing to become a championship team, you will have to be creative to land him. Do the Bills have the creativity to make that happen, or will they hope that one of the various options we detailed will be able to be "the guy"?
Perhaps Ryan Fitzpatrick will somehow be the answer, and the Bills ultimately will wind up like the Philadelphia Eagles are now, having a surplus of quarterbacks that are worthy of starting, so they have to trade one away before they lose him. It could happen.
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