MLB Predictions: 5 Ways the Tampa Bay Rays Can Still Sting the Boston Red Sox
Matt Garza's a Cub. Ditto for Carlos Pena. Jason Bartlett is a Padre. Rafael Soriano now calls the Bronx home. Grant Balfour's in Oakland. Carl Crawford is, of course, now a Boston Red Sox, as is Dan Wheeler. Dioner Navarro? He's a Dodger.
After a winter heavy on exits and light on entrances, Tampa Bay entered camp this spring with prognostications of hopeless mediocrity.
The contending team of the past three seasons? Lost to the winds of financial reality, which has never been a happy reality for the Rays.
A general sentiment still pervades that Joe Maddon's depleted team is prime to be sliced and diced by the New York Yankees, the vastly retooled Red Sox and a potent Blue Jays squad on the up and up.
Weakened? Yes, the 2011 Rays are undoubtedly an inferior team to the 2010 Rays. But crippled? Hardly. The Rays are still a well-rounded team that will continue to challenge and perhaps even vex the Red Sox. Boston hasn't won a season series against the Rays since 2007, going a combined 24-30 against Tampa since 2008.
1. Tampa's Starting Pitching
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Even without Matt Garza, Tampa's rotation still has bite. Or at least the potential for bite. David Price is one of the best pitchers in the game. The pitchers after him present a host of questions.
James Shields is trying to bounce back after a disastrous 2010.
Wade Davis will be looking to prove that his strong second half last year (3.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) is what he's consistently capable of.
Rookie Jeremy Hellickson, "Hellboy," hopes that he can live up to high expectations and deliver on juicy scouting reports
Jeff Niemann, a solid option for the back end of any rotation, will shoot again for the 30 starts benchmark (He made 30 starts in 2009 and 29 last season).
Price is one of the best pitchers in the game, and Shields has shown the potential to be a solid No. 2. Davis and Hellickson both have serious upside, and you could do much worse than Niemann in the five-spot.
Of course, given the depleted state of Tampa's bullpen, it will be all the more paramount that their starters log quality starts against lineups like Boston's.
2. Tampa's Speed
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The days of Carl Crawford's personal track meets against Boston catching are now over, however the Rays still have speed on the base paths, and, more importantly, the Red Sox still have big questions behind the dish.
Jason Varitek is notoriously poor at nabbing runners. The jury is still out on Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who needs to prove himself adept at virtually every defensive aspect of the position, never mind just at throwing out base-runners.
With Crawford's departure, B.J. Upton (42 SB in 2010) now has the best wheels in the Rays lineup. Ben Zobrist (24) has some zip, and even Evan Longoria (15) shows some speed now and then.
Newcomer Johnny Damon only swiped 11 bags last year for the Tigers, but the Rays might get Boston's former Baseball Jesus running more than he was in Detroit.
As long as Boston's catchers continue struggle at stopping the Rays' running game, it is a very safe bet that Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon will continue to be aggressive and test Varitek and Salty.
3. Tampa's Hitting
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No Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena? No problem.
Evan Longoria is ready to take things to a new level. He bulked up this past winter at the famous Athletes Performance Institute in Phoenix and is wowing Grapefruit League crowds with monstrous moon shoots.
Losing Crawford's multi-dimensional offensive game obviously leaves a void, however there is more to the Rays' offense that just Longoria.
Ben Zobrist slipped a bit last year after his breakout 2009. If Zobrist is able to bat like he did that year, he and Longoria will be a pretty solid 3-4 combination.
Sean Rodriguez and Dan Johnson will look to provide a little pop from the right side of the infield, which should make up for whatever power production the Rays lost with the departure of Carlos Pena. The Rays surely won't miss Pena's .196 2010 batting average.
With the trade of Jason Bartlett, Reid Brignac inherits the starting shortstop position.
It will be intriguing to see what the Rays can muster out of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon. The two veterans are well past their heydays as Boston stars; together, they can make no more than a combined $8 million this season.
Might a motivated Ramirez have the kind of season that Vladimir Guerrero had with Texas last year?
Damon will always have the fitness to be an everyday player, however does he still have the plate vision and bat speed to keep him productive in such a role?
Tampa's path to offensive success in 2011 will be much different and more unorthodox than the path the franchise has followed in previous Maddon years. The 2011 Rays are slower and older than in previous years, however they still have the potential to give pitchers fits.
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4. Boston's Starting Pitching
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If Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz could pitch every time the Sox face the Rays, Boston would be all set.
So what's wrong with the rest of the rotation? What's wrong is that Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Daisuke Matzusaka all had horrible 2010 seasons. Who's to say that even one of them will bounce back in 2011?
Beckett rides, perhaps, the highest expectations because he has had success in Boston. Last year was easily the worst of Beckett's career, however it also followed his pattern of a good year followed up by a poor one. If the pattern is to hold for Beckett he'll have to turn things around. He's been getting shelled this spring.
Indicators on Lackey's 2010 are mixed. His ERA (4.40) and his WHIP (1.42) are way above his career norms. However he also led the team in innings pitched (215) and quality starts (21). Interestingly enough, the QS figure was the highest total by a Boston pitcher since 2004. What is definitely troubling, however, is Lackey's record against the Rays. In six outings since 2008, Lackey has gone 3-3 against Tampa with a ghastly 6.62 ERA. Yikes.
Daisuke Matsuzaka hasn't fared much better versus Tampa over that same time span. Dice-K's numbers 1-3 over seven starts with a 6.00 ERA.
And one better hope that Terry Francona doesn't look to veteran Tim Wakefield for a pinch of long relief duty if any of these three guys gets the hook early. Wake's three-year splits against Tampa? 2-3 over six starts with a miserable 7.26 ERA.
Terry Francona better hope that Lester and Buchholz continue their winning ways in 2011, because it might be difficult to find consistency after those two take their turns.
5. Managing
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Tampa's 30-24 mark over the past three seasons is a pretty clear indicator that Tampa has a definitive edge over the Red Sox. And that figure does not include the statistical and psychological factor of Tampa's defeat of Boston in the 2008 ALCS, which is the only playoff series between the two teams.
I posit that Joe Maddon has Terry Francona's number.
It's hard to point at any stats on this argument. Francona has never exactly fooled anyone, however as being a masterful in-game tactician. When Francona receives praise, truly deserved as it is, it is almost always for what he does outside of the dugout.
Francona puts together good lineups. He rests his starters in a timely fashion. He's good about keeping his bench players fresh and in the mix. He's massaged egos that need massaging and, subsequently, brought the best out of them as players: Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, David Ortiz and Jonathan Papelbon.
Joe Maddon, his wacky defensive shifts not withstanding, is commonly perceived as a terrific game manager. Maddon has a deft hook, seemingly always plugging the right reliever at the right time into the right situation. He'll bunt, steal, sacrifice and squeeze runs out lineups that have no business being as productive as they are.
One can argue it was Maddon who turned Ben Zobrist into a fantasy stud in 2009.
Both men are successful managers with their respective franchises, however Maddon, with his Bill Belichick-esque shrewdness, may very well hold a solid edge over Francona, his Boston counterpart.
Wrapping It Up
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The 2011 Rays lack the punch of Rays teams in recent seasons, there's no denying that. However, Tampa still has enough weapons and players with AL East experience to compete with the division's heavyweights.
Their bullpen did take a mighty hit though, and GM Andrew Friedman did not exactly do a whole lot to shore up that area.
The thing with the Rays is that they are still a team well-prepared for the future. Their deep farm system has players like shortstop Tim Beckham and outfielder Desmond Jennings waiting in the wings. Jennings may very well inherit a starting outfield job in the Majors before 2011 is out.
The 2011 Rays will still win their share of games, and, with some favorable matchups, they will likely continue to beat up on the Boston Red Sox.
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