NFL Draft 2011: Top 10 NFL Draft Questions for Buddy Nix and the Buffalo Bills
Coming in to the second year of his massive rebuilding project, sometimes referred to as "restoring the Buffalo Bills to a winning organization," Buffalo Bills General Manager Buddy Nix still has his work cut out for him.
The Bills took some baby steps in 2010 to show that they were able to become competitive in the NFL against the upper echelon teams. There was the overtime losses on the road to Baltimore and the overtime loss at home to Pittsburgh. They extended another playoff team, the Chicago Bears, to the fourth quarter. They did not manage any wins against teams with a winning record, but they never quit and continued to battle all season.
Head Coach Chan Gailey is trying to change the culture to become a team that believes in itself and thinks that it can win every game. That is a tall order playing in the AFC East against the New York Jets and the New England Patriots, but nobody ever said that this was going to be easy.
So, now with the draft a mere 37 days away, we are going to take a look at the 10 biggest questions that Buddy Nix faces in the upcoming draft.
10) Does Nix Buy Some Insurance on the Tendered Free Agents via the Draft?
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Before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expired, the Bills made a sort of pre-emptive strike by placing a tender offer on three of their potential free agents.
Two of them, linebacker Paul Posluszny and safety Donte Whitner, were unrestricted free agents, while the third, tight end Scott Chandler, was a restricted free agent. The Bills are not allowed to negotiate with any of the three until a new CBA is in place or the NFL and the union comes to an agreement that free agency will start back up again.
Since Nix has his hands tied with regards to free agency, will he hedge his bets and draft a player that is capable of taking the roster spot for all three players? Of the three, Paul Posluszny seems like the one player that both sides think will return to the fold. Donte Whitner was said to have made a rather outlandish salary demand, so his services are questionable at best to return.
Scott Chandler is a tight end that is more of a raw prospect, as he just completed his second year in the league. The Bills think he could become serviceable, but that remains to be seen. But the tight end position is more of an afterthought for the Bills, so they may need to step up and draft someone in the fourth round or higher if they want to secure a stronger option than Chandler.
Buddy Nix has gone on record as saying the Bills need bigger inside linebackers. So, with that in mind, I would not be surprised to see an inside linebacker, a safety and a tight end drafted among the eight overall picks that the Bills currently hold.
# 9) Will Buddy Nix Draft Any Underclassmen This Year?
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Here is a picture of Arthur Moats knocking Brett Favre out of the Vikings game, that effectively ended his starting games streak. Moats is just one of the senior players that Buddy Nix drafted in 2010.
Would you be surprised to learn that the entire draft class of 2010 was all seniors? I was, and need to give a tip of the cap to Bleacher Report Bills' fan Ronald Wolf, for sharing that little tidbit with me. Think of the 2010 Draft class:
C. J. Spiller, Torell Troup, Alex Carrington, Marcus Easley, Ed Wang, Arthur Moats, Danny Batten, Levi Brown and Kyle Calloway. The entire draft class were all seniors.
My first reaction to this realization, was that Nix wanted to steer as far away as he could from the one-year wonder types like Aaron Maybin. Well, in that he succeeded. However, if there is a limited ceiling with some of these players, but a higher ceiling with some of the underclassmen, you would like to think he could mix in a small percentage of risk to try to raise the talent level.
So, that brings us to the question, will Nix draft any underclassmen this year, or will he continue to stay with seniors only? Looking at the first pick, that would seem to suggest Von Miller is more likely the pick than Marcell Dareus, but Dareus is clearly not a one-year wonder, so I think he is still a viable option.
When the dust settles, it will be an interesting tidbit to discover, does Buddy bring in any underclassmen, or does he purely stay with the seniors once again.
# 8) Will the Arrival of Dave Wannstedt Impact the Bills Draft ?
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After serving as the head coach at the University of Pittsburgh for the past five seasons, Dave Wannstedt will be a busy man on draft day. He will be lobbying for the guys that he wants to see the Bills draft that impact his specific position assignment, coaching the Bills inside linebackers.
For the players that he directly coached at Pitt, Wannstedt will be serving as their ambassador to the Bills, answering every question about his players and trying to figure out where they should be ranked in regards to their positional peers in the draft.To that issue, he does have some quality players that the Bills might very well be interested in.
They are defensive linemen Jabaal Sheard and Greg Romeus, tackle Jason Pinkston and safety Dominic DeCicco. There is also Jonathan Baldwin, who is a very talented player, but the Bills don't appear to be hurting at wide receiver.
There will also be times when he will wear the Assistant Head Coach hat to Chan Gailey, and try to help out in the war room to play referee and sway opinion towards whatever works best for the team. He is not the defensive coordinator, as George Edwards has retained that role, but you can bet that Wannstedt now has a good handle on the defensive woes, and wants to see a majority of picks go to the defensive side of the ball.
One of the other areas to note is that Wannstedt has a firm handle on who is who in the Big East, and if any players get drafted by the Bills from that conference, you can rest assured that his opinion was part of what convinced the team to draft that player.
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# 7) How Many Players Will Bills Draft from the South Team at the Senior Bowl ?
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We have already established that Buddy Nix prefers to draft seniors. We also know that the Bills have a great handle on at least 45-50 seniors that were part of the South team that the Bills coaching staff worked with up close and personal at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama.
So, how many players will the Bills wind up drafting from that South team? I can envision a one-two punch coming right out of the box where the Bills draft Von Miller and Christian Ponder in the first two rounds. That combination would work for me. But I am jumping ahead of myself.
If you want a brief refresher course on who the Bills coached that week, here is the link to use to see the South roster: http://www.seniorbowl.com/southroster.asp
If you want to see the North roster: http://www.seniorbowl.com/northroster.asp
Besides the main two players we listed, here are some names that could wind up wearing red, white and blue in 2011: Allen Bailey, Ahmad Black, Clint Boling, James Carpenter, Andy Dalton, Rodney Hudson, Colin McCarthy, DeAndre McDaniel, Brooks Reed, Kelvin Sheppard, Derek Sherrod, Luke Stocker, Phil Taylor, DeMarcus Van Dyke and D.J. Williams. That is an impressive collection of talent.
Granted, the Bills don't know the North team players as well as they do the South team, but they were allowed to spend time with them in a unique meeting, as part of the privileges of coaching in the game.
It would be considered a genuine upset if the Bills did not draft anybody from the South team.
# 6) How Many Players Does Buddy Nix Draft for the Offense?
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How many picks will Buddy Nix use in the draft for the offense? That is a reasonable question. There at least three positions that seem to have a greater need than others, possibly four positions overall.
I would prioritize them in to:
1) Quarterback—either Franchise Quarterback, or immediate backup to Ryan Fitzpatrick for 2011,
2) Tight End—Bills ranked last in NFL in completions to their tight ends in 2010
3) Tackle—either tackle position could use an upgrade but having some competition on the team to win a starting berth would be a welcome sight. Also need to upgrade the talent from a depth perspective.
4) Guard—this is the Eric Wood question. If he is moved from guard to center, who is the starting guard? If the Bills want to challenge Kraig Urbik or Chad Reinhart, they will draft an athletic guard.
Obviously Chan Gailey is an offensive-oriented coach and as head coach, he will be lobbying for some help for the offense. I envision at least two players being drafted for offense. Probably a quarterback and either a tight end or a tackle. What is so hard about predicting this is that all it takes is one player that unexpectedly drops down to the point that he is a steal compared to the Bills value chart or grade, that they take someone unexpected.
If Danny Watkins fell down the draft, that could really tempt the Bills. Tackles like Derek Sherrod or James Carpenter could also be very tempting depending on where they sit on the big board as well. Due to his hamstring injuries it is also possible that Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph falls as well.
But, the overall winner has to be the defense. Last in rushing defense, last in allowing first downs on the ground, 28th in points allowed. the defense needs lots of help and lots of new blood.
# 5) What Holes on the Bills Roster Will Have to Be Left for Free Agency?
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In recent articles leading up to this presentation, we have documented that there are more holes on the Bills team, than the number of draft picks that they have available. Since the team will not be allowed to sign any of the undrafted rookie free agents at the conclusion of the draft, (until a new CBA is in place), the Bills have no choice but to wait for free agency to kick in to complete their roster.
The 10 holes we have determined so far would be: Backup Quarterback (Franchise Quarterback), tight end, safety, inside linebacker, outside linebacker, corner, tackle, guard, defensive end and defensive tackle.
We just discussed the Bills can look to free agency to secure some additional depth for either the guard, tackle or tight end spot. Not for all of them, but for one or two of those positions.
On defense, the Bills might want to bring in a free agent linebacker or secondary member as the team just can't hit every roster need this time around in the draft. Defensive linemen are the best commodity in the draft, so it makes sense to take advantage of that fact and come out of the draft much stronger across the defensive front line.
If the Bills do sign Whitner to a new deal, then they don't need to draft a safety. They still have Bryan Scott and George Wilson there for depth.
# 4) Will Buddy Nix Ever Trade Down in the Draft?
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New England Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick has mastered the art of trading down in the NFL Draft to acquire more picks to constantly keep the pipeline full of young talent coming in to his organization. Hopefully Buddy Nix has been paying attention to his AFC East rival and been taking notes.
Whenever he is questioned about it, Nix prefers to to state that he likes staying at whatever slots the Bills are assigned to. For a team that has such a difficult task ahead to rebuild the team, you would think that coming up with additional picks is one sure way to get there faster. But Nix doesn't seem to understand or appreciate the merits in trading down to acquire more draft picks.
In his rookie campaign as the Bills General Manager, Nix did not execute one trade during the draft. He never gave other teams a chance to trade with him in the first round, as he had the Bills pick sprinted up to the podium within the first minute that the Bills were on the clock.
What lessons did he learn from the 2010 Draft? Will he more composed this year, and take his time and see what everybody has to say to him first, and then act on it, or just put his head down and fill out the draft card when the Bills turn comes up?
There is the potential for a trade in either of the first two rounds. After that, the likelihood drops down significantly. So, if the Bills draft where they are slotted in the first two picks, then you can figure that Buddy was not in the mood to do any trading.
# 3) Will Buddy Nix Suprise the NFL with Another C.J. Spiller Type Pick?
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For the better part of the past month and a half, we have been discussing the numerous needs that the Bills organization has. To shore up the run defense, to become more physical along the line of scrimmage, to upgrade the talent and size of the linebackers. These are all well-documented discussions that make sense based on the 2010 Buffalo Bills season.
But this slide is meant to address the possibility that Buddy Nix might want to throw everybody a curve ball yet again. It happened originally in the 2010 draft, when Nix chose to ignore all of the other positions of need on the team and draft running back C.J. Spiller out of Clemson in the first round. Nix drafted Spiller even though Fred Jackson was coming off of a 1,000 yard season, and the Bills still owned Marshawn Lynch.
If there is a position that is deemed to be reasonably deep, it would be receiver. So, that then becomes the position where Nix may want to throw his curve ball this year. If you hear that the Bills drafted A.J. Green, Julio Jones or Leonard Hankerson, it is because Buddy Nix felt that this was the best player on the board and that is what he is going to go by.
For the Bills sake, and the fans sake, I hope that there is not another repeat of C.J. Spiller. Sure, I try to keep an open mind to all of the various possibilities that the draft holds, but in light of the mess over free agency and the CBA situation, Buddy needs to focus on the positions that the Bills have to make improvements in to compete in the AFC East.
# 2) What Round Will Buddy Nix Draft a Quarterback?
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Ralph Wilson has promised the fans that the Bills will be looking to draft a quarterback. The real question is then: In what round does this happen? Last year, the Bills took Levi Brown in the seventh round.
This question boils down to some factors the Bills control and some other factors that they don't control. For starters, when the Bills have finalized their internal big board, what draft slot does the top quarterback on that board occupy? If he is there in the top three, and if Carolina does not draft a quarterback, and Denver does not trade out of the two slot, then the Bills might surprise everyone (or nobody if you are inclined to think they are going to take a QB regardless) and draft a quarterback with the third pick.
While it is possible the above scenario is played out, I am of the opinion that there are going to be a number of defensive players that are ranked higher or grade out higher than any quarterback does. Because of the depth of defensive talent in the draft class, that is going to trump out the quarterbacks in this draft class, at least for the first round.
Second round is a different story, and I really think that the 34th pick is where the Bills will be very tempted to take their quarterback.
Here is my current QB prediction for the first three rounds:
1st round—Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton and Jake Locker.
2nd round—Christian Ponder and Ryan Mallett.
3rd round—Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton and Ricki Stanzi.
# 1) What Will Buddy Nix Do with the Number Three Pick?
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So, here it is the big question. What does Buddy Nix ultimately do when the Bills are on the clock with the third pick? That for now is the million dollar question.
The more I try to play this out in my mind, I see it coming down to Marcell Dareus and to Von Miller. I know that there is the remote possibility that both players could be off of the draft board by the time that the Bills turn is up, but I consider that unlikely to happen.
If by fate, both players are sitting there, I am going to go on record and say that it will be Marcell Dareus. There is just a sneaky suspicion I have that he is going to be gone by the time the Bills pick rolls around.
If that is the case, then I see the pick being Von Miller. The defense gets a major impact athlete and it sets the stage for the rest of the draft. Nix would have continued drafting his preference for seniors and the Bills worked with him enough at the Senior Bowl to know that they really like him.
There is the Patrick Peterson option, and many Bills fans are interested in Peterson, and for good reason.
The Bills have not worked that much with either Gabbert or Newton so far. Nix did in fact dine with both quarterbacks right around their college Pro Day, so he is interested in both, but I think that comes down to doing his due diligence on the duo.
In my opinion, defense will rule out. So, there you have it Bills fans. The top 10 questions for Buddy Nix at the draft. Feel free to share your observations, or comments, and we can continue the conversation.
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