With the seventh pick in the first round of the 2011 NFL draft, the San Francisco 49ers select…
Blain Gabbert, Cam Newton, Christian Ponder and Ryan Mallet—please sit down.
2011 is not the year the 49ers will be spending a first-round draft pick on a quarterback. If this year’s list of available quarterbacks were included with next year’s group, each 2011 prospect would be lucky to make the second-round, if not a later round.
2012 will be an exceptional year for quarterback draft prospects. Consider this partial list of probable quarterback prospects: Andrew Luck, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley, Bryant Moniz, Kellen Moore, Darron Thomas, Terrelle Pryor, Dan Persa, Landry Jones, Brandon Weeden, Dominique Davis, Ryan Lindley, Kyle Padron, G.J. Kinne and Robert Griffin to name just a few. And there is quite a list of Restricted and Free Agent QBs available (slide nine).
Drafting a mid-round, second-tier QB, and signing a FA QB would be optimum to augment Carr.
Supply: For the 2011 draft, the depth comes in cornerbacks, defensive tackles, defensive ends and outside linebackers. Most teams will be concentrating their top two or three draft picks on these positions, but for those who want offense, running backs, wide receivers and offensive tackles will be available at a bargain.
Demand: San Francisco has tremendous needs at many positions but especially at quarterback, cornerback, 3-4 outside linebacker, nose tackle, 3-4 defensive end and perhaps offensive center.
Factor: The 49ers will add a top quarterback in 2012 with their first pick which may be in the top ten. They have spent quite a bit of time this season (2011) studying project-quarterback's workouts that will be available in second-through-fifth rounds.
Result: Expect the 49ers to sign a free-agent quarterback (after recertification) to augment David Carr and develop the likes of a Colin Kaepernick or Pat Devlin (or both).
The 49ers will draft to their team needs in the first three rounds. No reaching for a "best available."
The likely order could be cornerback in the first round, a quarterback or 3-4 OLB in the second round, and perhaps a nose tackle in the third round.
Later rounds may see a 3-4 defensive end, offensive center, free safety and a wide receiver.
This gets a little complicated in the second round since all of the available second-to-third round quarterbacks, nose tackles or 3-4 OLBs may have nearly an equivalent late second or third-round value not worthy of pick 45.
Since the top tier of 3-4 OLBs (Von Miller, Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith, Brooks Reed and Akeem Ayers), are gone....
and the decent quarterbacks (Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Cam Newton, Ryan Mallet and Christian Ponder) are gone...
and the top tier of nose tackles (Marcell Darius and Phil Taylor) are gone...the 49ers will look for the most mileage with their 45th pick.
The second tier of 3-4 OLBs (Sam Acho, Jabaal Sheard, Chris Carter, Dontay Moch and Bruce Miller) will be available in later rounds.
This applies to the second tier of quarterbacks (Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Pat Devlin).
The next tier of nose tackles (Jerrell Powe, Kendrick Ellis) are even further down to the fourth round .
And there are teams wanting to trade up:
Seattle would like to trade pick No. 57 get a cornerback before Oakland’s pick at No. 48.
Atlanta would trade up pick No. 59 to beat St. Louis in grabbing Kyle Rudolph versus a Luke Stocker at TE.
Chicago would trade up (pick No. 62) to grab OT Marcus Cannon or Danny Watkins before New Orleans, rather than settling for James Carpenter
There will be quite a few teams looking to trade up their second-round pick; however, the most likely would be San Diego trading up sixteen spots (pick No. 61 for the 49ers No. 45). The Chargers can be assured of capturing a better player (perhaps wide receiver Torrey Smith).
The 49ers could realize three picks for their one!
This is based on Oakland’s 2009 second-round (40th pick overall) trade with New England’s spot (47th pick overall). In return for moving down seven spots, Oakland also received New England’s fourth-round pick (124th pick overall) and New England’s sixth-round pick (199th pick overall).
This is also similar to what the 49ers did in the third round last year to get Navorro Bowman (pick No. 91), Anthony Dixon (pick No. 173) and this year’s fourth-round selection (pick No. 124).
Starting in the first round, the 49ers will probably pick cornerback Patrick Peterson.
The top 10 prospects changes from week to week, depending on which mock you follow, but the consensus lately seems to indicate that Peterson will fall to the 49ers. If Peterson is picked by Buffalo, Prince Amukamara could be the “fallback position” cornerback to select.
On with the draft...
After Carolina captured Blaine Gabbert, Denver designated Da’Quan Bowers, Buffalo selected Marcell Darius, Cincinnati collected Cam Newton, Arizona acquired Von Miller, Cleveland claimed A.J. Green…
With the seventh pick in the first round of the 2011 NFL draft, the San Francisco 49ers select:
Cornerback Patrick Peterson, LSU
(Alternate at Pick 7: CB Prince Amukamura, Neb)
Note: Peterson scored the lowest (9/49) on the NFL combine's intelligence test. Amukamura score was one of the highest (35/49). Supposedly a measure of common sense smarts, not football smarts.
The top defensive back in college football in 2010, earning two national awards (Thorpe and Bednarik) as well as being a consensus All-America selection.
The 49ers’ two biggest needs at this point are 3-4 OLB, QB, 3-4 DE and NT.
QBs Gabbert, Newton, Locker, Ponder and Mallet are gone. Colin Kaepernick probably won’t be selected until the 57th pick (to Seattle) or at the 79th pick (to Miami).
NTs Marcell Dareus and Phil Taylor are gone. Jarrell Powe probably won’t be selected until the 86th pick (to Kansas City).
3-4 OLBs Von Miller, Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith, Brooks Reed, Akeem Ayers and Sam Acho are gone. Jabaal Sheard could go to the Giants at pick No. 52, but Chris Carter will be on the board until Buffalo’s third-round pick or maybe even San Diego’s third-round choice. Bruce Miller and Dontay Moch, along with Sheard and Carter, are all second-value prospects that will be available in the third round because the 3-4 OLB position is the deepest in the draft.
The best strategy for the best available player that meets 49er team needs is to trade down to. 3-4 OLB is the deepest of the three positions of need for the 49ers.
The San Francisco 49ers trade the 45th pick in the 2011 NFL draft to San Diego.
In return, the 49ers get San Diego’s 61st pick, the Charger’s 89th pick in the third round (that San Diego acquired from Seattle) and their sixth-round pick in the 2012 draft.
With the 61st pick in the second round of the 2011 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select:
3-4 Outside Linebacker
Sam Acho, Texas
(Alternate at Pick 61 if available: OLB Jabaal Sheard, Pitt)
Acho received numerous honors during his time in Austin. He received the academic Heisman Trophy in 2010, taking home the William V. Campbell Trophy and was awarded the Wuerffel Trophy given the college football player who contributed on the field and in the community. Acho was also won the Awards & Recognition Association Sportsmanship Award.
The 49ers’ biggest needs at this point are QB, 3-4 DE and NT.
Despite his early March climb in mock drafts, Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is still available in the third round and both the 49ers and Dolphins are talking to him on the phone.
With the 76th pick in the third round of the 2011 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select:
Quarterback Colin Kaepernick, Nevada
(Alternates at Pick 76 if available: QB Ricky Stanzi, Iowa or QB Greg McElroy, AL)
NFL Quarterbacks that may be available: Kyle Boller (UFA) - Oakland; Brian Brohm (RFA) Buffalo; Marc Bulger (UFA) - Baltimore; David Carr (UFA) - San Francisco; Kellen Clemens (UFA) - NY Jets; Kerry Collins (UFA) - Tennessee; Todd Collins (UFA) - Chicago; Brodie Croyle (UFA) - KansasCity; Dennis Dixon (RFA) - Pittsburgh; Trent Edwards (UFA) - Jacksonville; Brett Favre (UFA) - Minnesota; Charlie Frye (UFA) - Oakland; Bruce Gradkowski (UFA) - Oakland; Chris Greisen (UFA) - Dallas; Rex Grossman (UFA) - Washington; Caleb Hanie (RFA) - Chicago; Matt Hasselbeck (UFA) - Seattle; Shaun Hill (UFA) Detroit; Tarvaris Jackson (UFA) - Minnesota; Kevin Kolb (Trade?) Philadelphia; Matt Leinart (UFA) - Houston; J.P. Losman (UFA) - Seattle; Peyton Manning (UFA) - Indianapolis; Luke McCown (UFA) - Jacksonville; Donovan McNabb (Trade?) Washington; Matt Moore (UFA) - Carolina; J.T. O'Sullivan (UFA) – Oakland; Carson Palmer (Trade?) - Cincinnati; Jordan Palmer (RFA) - Cincinnati; Chad Pennington (UFA) – Miami; Brady Quinn (Trade?) - Denver; Patrick Ramsey (UFA) - Minnesota; Chris Simms (UFA) - Tennessee; Alex Smith (UFA) - San Francisco; Troy Smith (RFA) - San Francisco; Jim Sorgi (UFA) - NY Giants; Brian St. Pierre (UFA) - Carolina; Drew Stanton (UFA) - Detroit; Tyler Thigpen (UFA) - Miami; Michael Vick (UFA) - Philadelphia; Billy Volek (UFA) - San Diego; Seneca Wallace (UFA) – Cleveland; Vince Young (Trade?) - Tennessee
This pick is from the San Diego trade. The 49ers’ biggest needs at this point are 3-4 DE and NT.
With the 89th pick in the third round of the 2011 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select:
3-4 Defensive End Allen Bailey, Miami
(Alternate at Pick 89: DE Christian Ballard, Iowa)
Named All-ACC twice in his career, earning first team honors as a junior and second team honors as a senior…Started 27 games in his career (4 in 2008; 10 in 2009; 13 in 2010)…Wrapped up his career with 103 total tackles (55 UA, 39 A) Recorded 12 sacks for a loss of 112 yards in his career...Tallied 31 tackles behind the line (9 in 2008; 11 in 2009 and 2010) for a total loss of 183 yards
The 49ers’ biggest need at this point is NT.
With the 108th pick in the fourth round of the 2011 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select:
Nose Tackle Jerrell Powe, Ole Miss
(Alternate at Pick 108: NT Kendrick Ellis, Hampton)
Powe garnered second team All-SEC honors in 2009 and 2010. He missed only one game in his three seasons in the Red and Blue and started 22-of-25 games the past two years. The 6'2", 320-pounder piled up 69 total tackles, 24 TFLs and seven sacks over his career.
With the 114th pick in the fourth round of the 2011 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select:
Center Kristopher O’Dowd, USC
(Alternate at Pick 114: OC Tim Barnes, Missouri)
O'Dowd, a three-year starter at center for the Trojans, was an honorable mention All-Pac-10 in 2010. He was part of an offensive unit that ranked third in the Pac-10 in rushing (189.8 ypg), fourth in scoring offense (31 ppg), fourth in passing offense (241.7) and fourth in total offense (431.5 ypg) in 2010
With the 138th pick in the fifth round of the 2011 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select:
Quarterback Pat Devlin, Delaware
(Alternate at Pick 138: Ricky Stanzi, Iowa)
Devlin, one of the nation's highest-rated quarterbacks, was outstanding as a senior in 2010 as he completed 261-of-384 passes for 3,032 yards and 22 touchdowns with just three interceptions. He led the nation in pass completion percentage with a mark of .680 and ranked No. 5 in passing rating with a total of 151.64. He threw for over 200 yards nine times and threw four touchdowns passes in a game twice. In just two seasons at Delaware after transferring from Penn State, he threw for 5,696 yards and 38 touchdowns and won 18 games…He earned third team Associated Press All-American honors, was the CAA Offensive Player of the Year. Devlin becomes the sixth Delaware player to earn ECAC Player of the Year honors and the first since current NFL standout quarterback Joe Flacco in 2007.
With the 169th pick in the sixth round of the 2011 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select:
Fullback Owen Marecic, Stanford
(Alternate at Pick 169: FB Stanley Havili, USC)
Height: 6-0 Weight: 246
Class/Draft Year: Sr/2011
40 Time: 4.87
Projected Round: 4-5
Rated No. 3 out of 101 FB's
Marecic was a first team All-America selection by the American Football Coaches Association of America. The inaugural winner of the Paul Hornung Award honoring college football's most versatile player, Marecic finished as Stanford's fifth-leading tackler with 51 stops and also had five rushing touchdowns from the fullback position.
With the 185th pick in the sixth round of the 2011 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select:
Free Safety Deunta Williams, North Carolina
(Alternate at Pick 185: FS Jermale Hines, Ohio St)
Height: 6-2 Weight: 205
Recognized by some scouting services as one of the five best "skill" athletes in the nation coming out of high school. Williams posted 59 tackles and a team-leading three interceptions in 2007. He was even better in 2008, registering 65 stops—including 55 solo tackles—and three interceptions. Williams exploded in 2009, earning first-team All-ACC honors as a junior.
With the 199th pick in the seventh round of the 2011 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select:
Wide Receiver Ryan Whalen, Stanford
Whalen, an honorable mention All-Pac-10 selection this season, finished his senior campaign with 41 receptions for 439 yards and two touchdowns to rank as Stanford's second leading receiver. A three-year starter, the Alamo, Calif. native finished his collegiate career with 140 receptions for 1,184 yards and seven touchdowns.
With the 200th pick in the seventh round of the 2011 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select:
Inside Linebacker Mike Mohamed, California
Earned first-team All-Pac-10 honors in his first season as a full-time starter in 2009 after garnering an honorable mention all-conference selection in 2008 and before picking up second-team all-league recognition as a 2010 senior. Finished his collegiate career fourth on Cal's all-time list for tackles with 340 (197 unassisted, 143 assisted). Named Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Week four times, twice as a junior in 2009 and once during both his 2008 sophomore and 2010 senior seasons.
Round 1 - Pick 7: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
Round 2 - Pick 45: Traded to San Diego for Pick 61, Pick 89, and a 6th round next year
Round 2 - Pick 61: 3-4 OLB Sam Acho, Texas
Round 3 - Pick 76: QB Colin Kaepernick, Nevada
Round 3 - Pick 89 (from SD '11): 3-4 DE Allen Bailey, Miami
Round 4 - Pick 108: NT Jerrell Powe, Ole Miss
Round 4 - Pick 114 (from SD '10): C Kris O'Dowd, USC
Round 5 - Pick 138: QB Pat Devlin, Delaware
Round 6 - Pick 169: FB Owen Marecic, Stanford
Round 6 - Pick 185 (from SEA '10): FS Deunta Williams, UNC
Round 7 - Pick 199 (from DET '10): WR Ryan Whalen, Stanford
Round 7 - Pick 200: MLB Mike Mohamed, California