2011 Fantasy Baseball: Jayson Werth Will Be a Bust
In the past three years, Jayson Werth has averaged 29 HR, 92 R, 83 RBI, 17 SB, and .279 AVG. In 2010, Jayson Werth established a career-high .352 BABIP. This number suggests luck because of his career-low line-drive rate of 17.5 percent.
Werth's LD percentage has actually decreased every year with the Phillies. In 2008, his line-drive rate was 22.7 percent, in 2009 it was 19.7 percent and in 2010 it dropped to 17.5 percent. Due to his dwindling line-drive rate and career strikeout rate of 28.9 percent, don't expect a .296 AVG ever again.
His HR/FB has also dropped every year with the Phillies. In 2008, he posted a HR/FB rate of 21.1 percent, 19.3 percent in 2009 and 14.3 percent in 2010. Since the 14.3 percent HR/FB rate he posted in 2010 resembles his career mark of 16.1 percent, we shouldn't see much of a home run increase.
Werth turns 32 this season, so we should also see his speed continue to decline. In 2008, he stole 20 bases with a 95-percent success rate, which is the same number of bases he stole in 2009 but with a 85-percent success rate. In 2010, he dropped to 13 stolen bases with a 77-percent success rate.
Werth is slated to bat cleanup for the 2011 'Nats. Even though it's a small sample size, Werth's career numbers from the cleanup spot do not look good. In 29 at-bats, he has registered a .241 BA with three RBI and three BB versus 13 K.
Which of the following will have a better fantasy season?
The Washington Nationals lineup is very different from the Philadelphia Phillies lineup. The Phillies scored 102 more runs than the Nationals in 2010 and the loss of Adam Dunn does not help matters. Expect fewer runs and RBI for Werth in 2011.
In 2010, Jayson Werth had the opportunity to feast on Nationals pitching, posting a .368 BA with a 1.217 OPS against his new team. Livan Hernandez, John Lannan, Craig Stammen and Jason Marquis certainly are no Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels.
The Nationals play the Phillies 18 times this year.
The differential in park factors point to Werth having a decrease in home runs. The home run park factor index for a right-handed hitter in Citizens Bank Park was 120 in 2010. The home run park factor index for a right-handed hitter in Nationals Park was 100 in 2010.
Currently, Jayson Werth's average draft position is 50.3. You should get similar if not BETTER production from outfielders such as Jason Heyward (ADP 52.3), Alex Rios (ADP 59.5), Curtis Granderson (ADP 71.5), Jay Bruce (ADP 78.2), Hunter Pence (ADP 82.1), Colby Rasmus (ADP 93.2), Tori Hunter (ADP 94.6), Chris Young (ADP 97.7) and many others.
2011 Projection: .269 AVG , 24 HR, 90 RBI, 77 R, 10 SB
Our next "Bust" will be: Rickie Weeks.
Previous "Bust": Derek Jeter
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