2011 NFL Draft: Dissecting the Quarterbacks To See Who Is Really No. 1
Listening to the expert analysts at NFL Network. the general consensus is that at least eight teams in the bottom 10 need some sort of help at the quarterback position. It appears that as important as the quarterback position is to NFL teams, especially since it is a quarterback-driven league, it is quite remarkable that so many teams are finding themselves lacking in this ultra-important position.
With so much speculation on which quarterback is first-round worthy, who is a stretch and who is going to be a bust, I thought it made sense to really go inside the numbers and take a closer look at the prospect quarterbacks in the upcoming draft class.
For what it is worth, we will also compare this group to Andrew Luck, in case some of you are looking ahead to 2012 already. For the purposes of this analysis, we have created our own little point system, which will be discussed in detail.
The Most over-Analyzed Position in Football Is Quarterback
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Analysts can point to any number of areas that can be found to be lacking in a quarterback and use that rationale to justify why they are going to fall out of the first round. The list is unbelievably long, but it also shows how important the quarterback is to his team when you add them all up.
Areas under scrutiny include: taking care of the ball, game management, extending plays with his legs, decision making ability, deep ball accuracy, arm strength, pocket awareness, work ethic, character, leadership, brightness, student of the game, throwing technique, NFL offense scheme ready or not, caliber of opposition, toughness, reliability and dependability, footwork, play maker, off-field behavior, coach-able, release point, field of vision, escapability and then the all-important intangible qualities.
So, you want your child to grow up to be a quarterback, huh?
Which QB's Will We Be Grading?
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In this article, we are going to be evaluating the following players, and they will be listed alphabetically: Andy Dalton, Blaine Gabbert, Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker, Ryan Mallet, Cam Newton and Christian Ponder. At the end, we will even throw in some bonus coverage of Andrew Luck for a comparison.
In case you are fans of Ricky Stanzi or Pat Devlin, they are just not being talked about enough in the upper echelon of quarterbacks to warrant a closer look. If you want to see how they fare, the point system being used will be broken down on the next slide. You can plug anyone's numbers in to compare them, or maybe do some 2012 prospecting. Matt Barkley, anyone?
By the way, if the 2011 NFL season never happens, this might prove to be an entertaining basketball team. You have to put Cam Newton's jumping ability in at center, as he goes 6'6." Power forwards are Ryan Mallett and Colin Kaepernick at 6'6" and then you have some fairly tall guards, at 6'3" in Christian Ponder and Jake Locker. We still have Andy Dalton (6'3") and Blaine Gabbert (6'5") ready to come in off the bench.
Wonderlic Scores for Our QB's in This Study
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Just learned that the QB scores for the recent Wonderlic exam held at the Scouting Combines came out.
From the quarterbacks we are discussing in this slide show, the winner was Colin Kaepernick with a 37 (out of 50). Following Kaepernick were Christian Ponder (35), Blaine Gabbert (31), Andy Dalton (29), Ryan Mallett (26), Cam Newton (21) and Jake Locker (20).
Other QB scores at the Combines were Greg McElroy - Alabama (43) and Ricky Stanzi - Iowa (30).
For what it is worth, some other notable QB scores from the past include Drew Brees (28), Peyton Manning (28), Jim Kelly (15) and Dan Marino (15).
It is thought that QB's now score higher because they take more time to prepare for the exam than the players did in the past.
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Analyzing Andy Dalton
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50 career starts = 100 points
71 career passing TD's = 142 points
22 career rushing TD's = 44 points
42 career wins = 210 points
completed 60 percent or more of passes twice = 20 points
3,000 yard passing in a season = zero points
1,000 yard rushing season = zero points
Was sacked 50 times = - 25 points
Threw 30 interceptions = - 30 points
TOTAL POINTS = 461
Inside Andy Dalton's Numbers
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Closed out his college career by winning 25 of his final 26 games. This kid is a winner.
Trended in the right direction in a number of areas. Sacks continually went down from freshman year to senior year.
QB Passer Rating went up every year as well.
Threw for more touchdowns every year at TCU.
Turned in greater than 60 percent completions in his final two years.
Bottom Line: In conducting this exercise, I conclude that Dalton is undervalued and deserves a closer look. Could turn out to be a steal.
Analyzing Blaine Gabbert
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26 Games Started = 52 points
40 Passing TD's = 80 points
Eight Rush TD's = 16 points
18 wins as a starter = 90 points
One season completed more than 60 percent of passes = 10 points
Two seasons of passing for more than 3,000 yards = 20 points
No seasons of rushing for more than 1,000 yards
43 career sacks = - 21 1/2 points
18 career interceptions = - 18 points
TOTAL POINTS = 228.5 points
Inside Blaine Gabbert's Numbers
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Went from 24 TD passes in 2009 down to 16 in 2010. Wrong way there.
Interceptions stayed the same—threw nine picks each over the last two years.
QB Passer Rating was 140 in 2009, went down to 127 in 2010. Wrong way there again.
Was sacked more 23 times in 2010, compared to 19 times in 2009. Wrong way once more.
Threw for 3,593 yards in 2009, dropped down to 3,186 yards in 2010. Yes, you guessed it.
Only positive development was his completion percentage went up. He completed 58.9 percent in 2009, and it rose to 63.4 percent in 2010.
His 2010 ratio of 16 TD passes to nine INT is less than 2:1, which is a red flag.
Bottom Line: Analysis of inside the numbers look says that he is overrated. There are too many areas where he is trending in the wrong direction. He may have benefited if he stayed in school for one more year. One other thing to consider: Running the same offense as Gabbert, Chase Daniel threw for 39 TD passes in 2008. The most TD passes Gabbert ever had was 24. On the positive side, the consensus among NFL teams was that Gabbert gave the best interview of all QB's at the Scouting Combine.
Analyzing Colin Kaepernick
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Started 49 Games = 98 points
Threw 82 career TD's = 164 points
Rushed for 59 career TD's = 118 points
Won 32 games as a starter = 160 points
Completed more than 60 percent of passes one time = 10 points
Passed for more than 3,000 yards in a season one time = 10 points
Rushed for more than 1,000 yards in a season three times = 30 points
Sacked 57 times in career = - 28 1/2 points
Threw 24 career interceptions = - 24 points
TOTAL POINTS = 537.5 points
Inside Colin Kaepernick's Numbers
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Kaepernick closed out his career by winning 21 of his final 24 games. During the four years at Nevada, he averaged 15 rushing TD's and 20 passing TD's per season.
Sack total kept trending positive, as it went down every year; 18 - 16 - 13 - 10.
Eclipsed the QB Passer Rating of 150 in both freshman and senior years ,but failed to in sophomore and junior years.
2010 was a great season—did the rare double double of 20 TD rushing and passing, more than 3,000 yards passing and over 1,000 yards rushing and completed more than 60 percent of passes. That is some rarefied air right there.
Bottom Line: Been starting to sneak up draft boards. May make it all the way to second round if the hype machine keeps rolling along.
Analyzing Jake Locker
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Started 40 Games = 80 points
Threw 53 career TD's = 106 points
Rushed for 29 career TD's = 58 points
Won 16 starts = 80 points
Did not have any season that he completed 60 percent or more of his passes
Never threw for 3,000 yards in any season
Never rushed for 1,000 yards in any season. Did manage 986 as a freshman for what it is worth.
74 career sacks = - 37 points
Threw 35 career interceptions = - 35 points
TOTAL POINTS = 252 points
Inside Jake Locker's Numbers
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The numbers tell the story in this case. No season of 3,000 yards. Closest he ever got 2,800 in 2009. Only started four games in 2008.
16 career wins in 40 starts is batting less than .500. That is a concern.
Never had better than a 2:1 ratio in TD passes to interceptions, which is another concern.
Was sacked 28 times in 2009, which is the most of any QB in this analysis for any one season. That speaks to his lack of running away from pressure or in learning how to get rid of the ball to avoid a sack. It also speaks to the offensive line he had in front of him.
Bottom Line: Locker should have benefited from the extra year with much better numbers as a senior. But the numbers don't lie. He really didn't help himself that much, so will go from a potential first overall to out of the top 10 overall picks. Where he goes depends on his private workouts.
Analyzing Ryan Mallet
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Started 29 Games = 58 points
Threw 69 career TD Passes = 138 points
Rushed for 7 career TD's = 14 points
20 career wins as a starter = 100 points
Had one season where he completed over 60 percent of his passes = 10 points
Had two seasons where he passed for over 3,000 yards = 20 points
Did not have any season where he rushed for over 1,000 yards
Was sacked 61 times in his career = - 30 1/2 points
Threw 24 career interceptions - = - 24 points
TOTAL POINTS = 284.5 points
Inside Ryan Mallett's Numbers
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Ryan Mallett has been able to throw a football over 80 yards. That is a very strong arm.
He is still paying the price for his public intoxication in 2009.
During his three year career in college, he threw a pass that went for at least 83 yards in all three years.
He never had one season where he rushed for positive yards. For teams that give up many sacks, his lack of mobility will be a serious issue.
Is the only quarterback in the group that posted consecutive seasons of throwing at least 30 touchdowns.
Fumbled six times between his year at Michigan and first year at Arkansas.
QB passer rating went over 150 in last two years; 152.5 in 2009 and 163.6 in 2010.
Bottom Line: If an NFL team wants a big body that can stand there in the pocket delivering the ball all over the field and can offer him reasonably good pass protection, Mallett would be ideal.
Analyzing Cam Newton
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Started 14 Games = 28 points
Threw 30 TD passes = 60 points
Rushed for 20 TD's = 40 points
Started for 14 wins = 70 points
Had one season where he completed over 60 percent of his passes = 10 points
Had one season where he rushed for over 1,000 yards = 10 points
Won one National Championship = 10 points
TOTAL POINTS = 228 points
Inside Cam Newton's Numbers
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Too bad Newton didn't have more major college Division I experience, or else he would have scored much higher on this grading system. As it was, he registered 228 points, and all of that was just in one season.
His QB passer rating of 182.0 was the highest mark of any QB in this group for any season that they had in their careers.
Is the only QB in the class that threw for 30 TD's and rushed for 20 TD's in the same season.
In the earlier slide where we listed all of the areas that people scrutinize when evaluating a quarterback, he is the guy that takes the most heat for some of these fine-tooth-comb areas.
Bottom Line: This is one talented QB. If he is a first round draftee, will his team allow him enough time to learn the right way, or will he be thrust into action before he is ready? Could have tremendous upside, but could also be a bust. What will lots of money do to him? Will he lose touch with reality? Will he be a good teammate? Many questions that need to be addressed.
Analyzing Christian Ponder
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Started 33 Games = 66 points
Threw 49 career TD's = 98 points
Rushed for 10 career TD's = 20 points
Had 21 career wins as a starter = 105 points
Had two seasons of completing at least 60 percent of his passes = 20 points
Did not have any season passing for over 3,000 yards.
Did not have any season rushing for over 1,000 yards.
Was sacked 57 times in career = - 28.5 points
Threw 30 career interceptions = - 30 points
TOTAL POINTS = 250.5 points
Inside Christian Ponder's Numbers
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Attempted 105 passes as a freshman, but was never sacked once that season.
QB Passer Rating never topped 150 mark. Highest score ever was 147.7 in 2009.
Highest yardage total was also 2009, when he threw for 2,717 yards.
Ugly ratio of TD's to interceptions in 2008, 14 TDs to 13 INT. Ratio improved to 2:1 in each of last two years.
His completion percentage of 68.8 in 2009 was the highest mark of any of the quarterbacks in the draft class for any given year of their career.
Bottom Line: Injuries have hampered his overall numbers. Is there any QB that has done more over the past month to two to improve their draft day stock? Should be off the board by the second round at the latest.
Could I Have the Envelope Please?
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The picture is Colin Kaepernick when he learned that he scored out as the highest graded quarterback in the class. You know he is happy, because he is signifying for all to see that he is indeed number one.
Here is the breakdown from our point system:
1) Colin Kaepernick - 537.5 points
2) Andy Dalton - 461 points
3) Ryan Mallet - 284.5 points
4) Jake Locker - 252 points
5) Christian Ponder - 250.5 points
6) Blaine Gabbert - 228.5 points
7) Cam Newton - 228 points.
This is not the order that these quarterbacks will be drafted, but maybe it should be? It will be ironic when the players with the least points get drafted ahead of the quarterbacks with the most.
For those of you that were curious to see how the above numbers compare to some quarterback from Stanford, continue on to the next slide.
Analyzing Anderw Luck
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Started 25 Games = 50 points
Threw 45 career TD's = 90 points
Rushed for five career TD's = 10 points
Has won 20 career starts = 100 points
Had one season where he completed over 70 percent his passes = 10 points
Had one season where he passed for more than 3,000 yards = 10 points
Been sacked 12 times in career = - six points
Thrown 12 career interceptions = - 12 points
TOTAL POINTS = 252 points
Inside Andrew Luck's Numbers
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In 2010, the light bulb went on over the head of Andrew Luck. He zoomed up from 13 TD passes in 2009 to a whopping 32 in in 2010. The 32 tied Ryan Mallet for the most TD passes for a QB in any specific season in the draft class.
His completion percent went up from 51.3 in 2009 to 70.7 in 2010. That is just an amazing number, blowing away the rest of the QB class.
His QB Passer Rating of 170.1 was only bested by Cam Newton at 182, and that was greatly helped by rushing for 20 TD's.
Bottom Line: His growth rate was so incredible over the past two years that it will be of keen interest to see if he has more growth in 2011. He will be playing for a new head coach after all, so his work is cut out for him. If any team makes a trade at the draft to try to secure an extra number one draft pick for 2012, it is going to be for Andrew Luck.
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