Boston Red Sox: Who Will Be in Their Starting Rotation by the All-Star Break?
The Boston Red Sox enter the 2011 season with high expectations.
Buoyed by the Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford signings as well as the return to health of Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and others, optimism regarding the Sox chances to return to a World Series may be at an all-time high.
But what about the pitching staff?
Will Jonathan Papelbon bounce back in 2011? Will Josh Beckett return to health? Can Daisuke Matsuzaka return to 2008 form? Are Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz legitimate Cy Young candidates? Were expectations surrounding John Lackey in 2010 justified?
Here’s your opportunity to tell us who you think Terry Francona will have in the Sox starting rotation by the All-Star break.
Jon Lester
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A healthy Lester is a lock to hold down a starting spot in 2011.
Lester is one of just four pitchers to win 50 or more games over the last three seasons (along with Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, and CC Sabathia).
Finished fourth in the 2010 American League Cy Young voting.
The most consistently productive Red Sox starter over last three seasons, and it’s not even close.
Clay Buchholz
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Buchholz seems to be off to a good start in spring of 2011 reassuring fans his 2008 nightmare season is in his rear view mirror for good.
His spectacular 2007 call up, which most notably included a no-hitter in his second career start, had set some pretty lofty expectations back in 2008.
Considered the jewel of the Sox farm system at the time his name was often included in blockbuster trade rumors.
Who knows the exact cause but some combination of expectations, rumors, and inexperience probably contributed to his disaster of a 2008 season.
The 2009 season led to a modest recovery, returning Buchholz to prize prospect status.
The 2010 season was Clay Buchholz’s coming out party. His 2.33 ERA was good for second best in the American League while his 17 wins nearly doubled his production from 2008 and 2009 combined.
Josh Beckett
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Beckett is certainly still considered a lock by most to hold on to a starting spot in the Red Sox rotation.
Most of the scuttlebutt regarding Becket revolves around two areas; his health and whether he is a true top of the rotation ace.
In Beckett’s second season with the Sox (2007), he had added to his reputation as one of MLB’s top pitchers. His 20 wins had led the majors as he finished second in the AL Cy Young voting.
Beckett’s true defining moments in 2007 came during the postseason as he posted a perfect 4-0 record with a stingy 1.20 ERA helping lead the Sox to their second World Series title in four years.
Since 2007, Beckett’s career has been on something of a roller coaster.
In 2008, his ERA ballooned to over 4.00 and he finished with just 12 wins.
2009 saw Beckett recover to win 17 games and show flashes of his youth.
2010 saw him reach new lows. His ERA approached 6.00 while he finished with just six wins in 21 starts.
So far here in 2011, Beckett’s spring results have been mixed at best.
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John Lackey
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Here’s the deal regarding John Lackey. His 2010 expectations had been set not by his performance in the past but by the size of his contract.
Lackey is a good pitcher, considerably better than average, but he’s not great and rarely ever has been.
His 2010 numbers (14-11 4.40 ERA in 215 IP) fit in quite well with the rest of his career. His 14-win total is tied for his second best ever, and it’s not like he hadn’t pitched for his share of strong clubs in the past. His ERA did go up some but probably not unexpectedly considering his move to Fenway Park.
Those Red Sox Nation fans who hoped to see the Lackey of 2007 were disappointed.
In 2007 Lackey had, at least till this point, a career year. He finished with 19 wins, led the AL in ERA, and finished third in the AL Cy Young race.
However, at this point in his career, his 2007 season appears to be more of an aberration than his 2010 season.
As for spring of 2011, Lackey has gotten off to a solid start with a sub 2.00 ERA and not having allowed a walk in his first 10.2 innings. A healthy Lackey will start in 2011 but don’t be disappointed when he wins between 13 and 15 games.
Daisuke Matsuzaka
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OK well to tell you the truth there seems to be a pretty good consensus among fans, media, and likely the Red Sox themselves when it comes to the status of the first four pitchers we looked at.
Now it gets tricky.
Daisuke Matsuzaka is having a horrible spring. Giving up over two base runners an inning while owning an ERA north of 10.00 is not the way to win over the Fenway faithful.
When Dice-K joined Boston before the start of the 2007 season it was international news and represented a $100 million investment by the Sox.
The move was cloaked in mystery as most Americans had little to no knowledge of the Japanese phenom. There was the legend of his 250-pitch game in high school and of course the mysterious gyroball.
His 2007 season hardly qualified as spectacular but, considering the acclimation process that had to take place in relocating to the United States, it would have to be considered a solid start.
Dice-K’s 2008 season built on his 2007 success and it looked like Matsuzaka may indeed be a top of the rotation type of pitcher.
Then the wheels fell off.
Dice-K’s 2009 and 2010 seasons combined have resulted in just 13 wins and a ERA of 4.99. Not the stuff of legends.
So should Dice-K hold on to a starting spot?
Not in my opinion and here’s why. It’s not just about the bad Dice-K it’s about the good Dice-K. Even when Matsuzaka is pitching well he rarely gives the team innings.
Over the last two seasons Dice-K has not been able to finish the 6th inning in 51 percent of his starts (19 out of 37 starts) Compare this to fellow starters Lester;18.8 percent, Lackey; 18.3 percent, Beckett; 24.5 percent, Wakefield; 25 percent and Buchholz 36.3 percent (who improved to 32 percent last season).
That’s a significant difference and certainly taxes a bullpen.
The problem is once removed from the rotation what do you do with him? Guys who can't throw strikes in the bullpen can be problematic, and frankly that's a pretty big contract for a middle inning reliever.
The problem here is going to be that contract which is going to make if difficult if not impossible to move him
Tim Wakefield
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Tim Wakefield joined the Boston Red Sox back in 1995 after two seasons in Pittsburgh.
His current teammate, and perhaps a competitor in his own right for the fifth starting spot, Michael Bowden was eight years old.
Fast forward 16 years, and 179 wins, and you have a knuckleballer who continues to defy the odds but the question is for how much longer?
Wakefield’s value in the bullpen seems limited as it could create a mid-game catching issue as well as a knuckler is hardly the guy you want to turn to in crucial situations with men on base.
Could he beat out Dice-K, Bowden and everyone else for the fifth starting spot? Maybe.
Could he be retained as a long inning reliever, someone who can eat up big innings in the event of an early hook to the starter?
My best guess is Wake makes the trip north out of spring training. He fills in as a great emergency starter/early inning reliever and he gets the opportunity to close in on his 200th career victory. But I don’t see Wakefield getting more than a dozen starts barring injuries.
Michael Bowden
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2010 was a bit of a misfire as far as Red Sox farmhands were concerned.
The Bosox farm system had enjoyed a nice stretch of supplying the big league club with certifiable big league players/stars. Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Paplebon, and Pedroia all had big impacts on the Red Sox often helping shape pennant races.
2010, however, was something of a disappointment. Where was Lars Anderson? How about Michael Bowden?
Bowden had been called up to Boston back in 2008 on the heels of a solid minor league season that had been split between AA and AAA. He made an immediate impression in his first big league start exhibiting composure rare for such a youngster.
It was not surprising when Bowden went back to AAA in 2009. Bowden started all 24 games he appeared in that season in Pawtucket but during the 2010 season the organization starting toying with the idea of using him as a reliever.
Bowden split 2010 in Pawtucket between starting (16 starts) and relieving (15 appearances). He returned to Boston in July of 2010 this time as a reliever appearing in 14 games.
Is Bowden bullpen bound for good, or could he compete for the fifth spot in the rotation?
My guess is he makes the big club out of spring training. I don’t know if he will get the opportunity to start in Boston, but I will predict this. When he does get the opportunity he will enjoy some success, whether that’s in Boston or not, I don’t know.
Player to Be Named Later
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Will someone else emerge to take over the five spot?
Will he be a farmhand or a Theo Epstein mid-season acquisition?
Where do Alfredo Aceves and Felix Doubrant figure in?
What are your thoughts?
For my money, I think it’s time to see what Bowden can do, I guess we’ll have to wait to see what Terry Francona believes.
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