As a Toronto Maple Leafs fan, it is my duty and pleasure to hate Daniel Alfredsson.
However, in this article, I could not help quoting him. He famously said the words: "Go ahead and write it, I guarantee we'll win the Stanley Cup."
It has been almost three years, about to become four, and we are still waiting for the Senators to win a championship.
So why did I start off this football article with a quote from a hockey player whom I despise? Is it because I'm insane? Possibly. Is it because I obsess over hockey? Most definitely.
But the real reason is that there are way too many guarantees thrown around in the world of sports. I used to write about rumors (which I will get back to soon), but a friend of mine started giving me rumors from his sources.
Now I had to see how accurate he was and he was right almost 80 percent of the time. So I decided to trust him.
Now, how can I guarantee that the NFL will not have a lockout? I can't at first. I can only say with 80 percent confidence that it won't.
My friend said he had two sources who had inside knowledge of a secret meeting between the owners. They have informed him that the majority of owners are against the lockout.
To be fair, even if this is true, negotiations can hit a standstill and we could be looking at a lockout. However, in this case, I think my friends sources are very accurate.
Will the NFL have a lockout?
Think logically for a moment: The main thing the owners thought is that in the event of a lockout they will all get the television revenue (they negotiated so that even if games are not televised they will get paid). However, with recent court rulings, it seems the players will get paid as well, which is very fair because after all, they are the ones who do all the real work.
So if the owners are going to benefit, then the players should as well.
How does this affect the lockout? For starters, now the owners make less money. If the game is actually played under the previous CBA, the owners would make more money than if there is a lockout.
So why would they want a lockout? What do they gain? Certain teams were losing money before; if they keep losing money they'll go bankrupt.
Then there's the NBA to worry about—they also have a lockout looming. If the NFL keeps churning, then they can steal some fans (and possibly Lebron James) from the NBA.
This is the biggest money maker of all sports leagues, so why on Earth would they risk alienating their fans?
Just imagine for a second that the NFL goes into a lockout and the NBA steals their fans. This would be outright terrible for the NFL. They would not make as much money as they did before the lockout.
If the NFL has a lockout, which sports league is most likely to steal their fans?
Furthermore, the NFL has to look at history. I know that the only thing we've learned from history is that we learn nothing from history. But let's see what has happened in the past.
MLB lockout occurred in the 1990s. It took them a long time to get the fanbases back to the number they had before.
The NHL lockout, however, is the better comparable. It was more recent, and probably has more die-hard fans. This is because the NFL is America's favorite sports league and the NHL is Canada's.
Here I noticed that after the lockout, a lot of people stopped watching hockey. Now why is that?
I believe the reason is that fans honestly believe (heck, I did) that the universe revolves around their sports team. As a result, many fans (myself included) were shocked that even during a lockout, the sun rises in the East and sets in the West.
What really intrigued me is that I could go an entire season without hockey! It shocked me, as it did many fans.
Some people responded by never watching it again; I watched it less. Either way, it is bad for the league.
People have argued that if the NBA has a lockout as well it won't affect the NFL fanbases. However, remember that hockey still occurs during these months.
Furthermore, the CFL exists and thus, they can expand better. This would be good for Canadian sports leagues (face it, hockey and the CFL are Canadian leagues, whereas the NBA, even though basketball was invented by a Canadian and the NFL are American leagues), and very bad for American sports leagues.
So, what would happen in the case of a lockout? Less NFL fans, which means less revenue. The profits will go down, and so the teams have to suffer heavy losses or moderate profits.
There is absolutely no reason for them to lock out the league.
In conclusion, I think my friend is right on this one. His sources are telling him the truth and are legitimate. Although he is only right 80 percent of the time, I think I can guarantee this time that he is right.
After all, it makes no sense at all to lock out the players now. So go ahead and write it, I guarantee the NFL lockout will not happen.