2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 67: Why You May Be Underestimating Jacoby Ellsbury

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

After batting .301 with 70 steals in 2009, Jacoby Ellsbury made a strong case for being selected as a top 20 player at this time last season.

2010 wasn’t kind to the 2005 first-rounder, however. Ellsbury fractured his ribs less than two weeks into the season, leading to three separate DL stints, limiting him to just 18 games. Ellsbury has since declared himself to be 100 percent this spring and has played without limitations.

In the two seasons prior to his injury-plagued 2010, Ellsbury showcased plus-plus speed and excellent contact rates:

Stolen Bases

• 2008: 50-for-61 (82 percent)
• 2009: 70-for-82 (85 percent)

Contact Rate

• 2008: 89.0 percent
• 2009: 88.4 percent

Over the last three seasons, Ellsbury has the fifth-most steals in baseball (127), despite missing nearly all of last season.

Red Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan recently mentioned that the team wants Ellsbury to bat leadoff, and I suspect he’ll be doing just that on Opening Day. Given a full season atop Boston’s potent lineup, Ellsbury should post totals similar to his ‘09 campaign, making him an extremely valuable fantasy asset.

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2010 stats	84	10	0	5	7	.192
3-year average	462	67	6	37	42	.285
2011 FBI Forecast	675	110	11	60	55	.297

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 (projections included): Is Pujols Still the Top Pick?
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• No. 61: Carlos Santana
• No. 62: Buster Posey
• No. 63: Kendry Morales
• No. 64: Adrian Beltre
• No. 65: Alexei Ramirez
• No. 66: Jered Weaver

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options