MLB Preview 2011: A Complete Breakdown of the AL Central Race
One of the most interesting races in baseball should be the AL Central Division. The Midwestern division isn't the sexiest in baseball, but it's highly underrated.
ESPN will give more coverage to one Red Sox/Yankees series than they will to the combined seasons of the five teams in the division, but the fans of those teams know it's shaping up to be a great race in 2011.
A strong argument could be made for the Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox or Minnesota Twins winning the division. If everything goes right for the Cleveland Indians, they could stick around for awhile and even though the Kansas City Royals aren't close, they're a team that will improve rapidly in the near future.
Here's my primer for fans of the AL Central for the 2011 season. It has thoughts on the best lineup, rotation, bullpen, coaching, defense, each team's key player and a predicted win total for the teams.
There is no clear-cut favorite to win the division, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Best Lineup: Chicago White Sox
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This one is very close.
The Indians have some talent in Shin-Soo Choo and potential in Carlos Santana and Matt LaPorta, but they need too much to go right, namely Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner finding a time machine.
The Royals lineup is a mess, but their farm system is stocked. Their cleanup hitter is projected to be Kila Ka'aihue. Yeesh. Billy Butler is their best hitter and he's just kinda...meh.
Ultimately, I go with the White Sox over the Tigers and the Twins. For the Tigers and Twins to have an explosive offense, a lot of things have to go right.
For the White Sox not to, a lot of things have to go wrong. I'm a glass-half-empty guy.
Miguel Cabrera and Justin Morneau are the two best hitters in the division, but they each are coming into the season with baggage. Cabrera needs to sort his personal issues and Morneau needs to stay healthy. If those happen, then they're just as good as the White Sox.
The White Sox really don't have any lineup concerns. They don't quite have the monster middle of the lineup the Tigers and Twins do, but one through six are scary.
One concern is how Adam Dunn will fit in. He is a strikeout machine and not exactly known to be clutch. He could run into issues with some of the power arms in the AL Central rotations and bullpens
Best Rotation: Detroit Tigers
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So I might catch some heat for this one. I really struggle between the White Sox and Tigers here.
The White Sox might be a little more dependable one through five, but the Tigers have the best starter in the division (Justin Verlander) and arguably the third- or fourth-best starter (Max Scherzer), both of whom are the two best power arms in the AL Central.
The Tigers starters thus far in spring training have let up two earned runs in almost 26 innings pitched. There's just more potential for the Tigers rotation than any other team.
The White Sox lack a true ace unless Jake Peavy can stay healthy. That is a huge if. Even though he looked great in his first spring outing, he needs to prove it long-term. If he's back to his old self, they could leap-frog the Tigers.
The Twins have a fine ace in Francisco Liriano. Carl Pavano is the No. 2. He had an excellent 2010, but I just can't help but wonder when he's going to revert to his Yankee days. Scott Baker is OK, but the rest of the guys still have a lot to prove.
The Indians and Royals aren't worth mentioning other than Fausto Carmona of the Indians, who I'm sure will be out of the division anyway by the end of the season.
Best Bullpen: Detroit Tigers
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Again, it comes down to the Tigers and White Sox.
The Indians have a good closer in Chris Perez, and the Royals have the best closer in the division in Joaquin Soria, but neither of those guys will get much help from the rest of the bullpen.
The Twins bullpen just got demolished this offseason, and their closer (Joe Nathan) is coming off major surgery. They need too much to go right.
The White Sox suffered their own loses in Bobby Jenks and JJ Putz, but added Jesse Crain from the Twins as well as the well-travelled Will Ohman. Matt Thornton and Chris Sale anchor a strong bullpen.
I'm going with the Tigers because of their depth. They already had an All-Star closer in Jose Valverde and added all-world setup man Joaquin Benoit.
Their righty specialists will be Joel Zumaya, who is an injury concern but extremely talented, and Ryan Perry, a top draft pick who finally seemed to get it in the second half of the season and will fill that role nicely.
Daniel Schlereth is another guy who ascended last year, so much so that the Tigers' best lefty last season (Phil Coke) was moved to the rotation.
Best Coaching: Minnesota Twins
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While Ozzie Guillen of the White Sox and Jim Leyland are both good managers, Ron Gardenhire is the class of the division.
When other teams have collapsed in the face of injuries, the Twins have gotten better. They're a disciplined team that plays baseball the right way.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Gardenhire lead the Twins to the division crown again, but I don't think it's happening this year. The Twins have gotten worse this offseason, and the Tigers and White Sox, who weren't far behind already, got much better.
Manny Acta of the Indians and Ned Yost of the Royals are JV compared to the other three managers.
Best Defense: Minnesota Twins
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In my opinion, this is the easiest category to decide. It's not even close.
Every team in the division has a great defender or two, but the Twins are strong across the board. If you can't play defense, you don't play for the Twins...unless you're the DH.
The Twins were one of the top defensive teams in the league last year, and they only got better with the addition of second baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka from Japan. How many Japanese position players do you know that can't play defense?
Defense is like a religion to the Twins and it all starts with the preacher, Joe Mauer. They are especially strong up the middle with Mauer, Nishioka, Alexi Casilla and Denard Span.
Detroit Tigers Key Player: Miguel Cabrera
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No doubt this team will do as well as their beefy first baseman.
Cabrera is a perennial MVP candidate, but he enters the season with many doubters wondering when his next drunken encounter will be.
Cabrera will rebound and lead the Tigers to the playoffs this year.
Chicago White Sox Key Player: Jake Peavy
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Jake Peavy is the biggest wild card in the division. He's looked good in spring training, but White Sox fans will be holding their breath all season long.
Peavy is a dynamic pitcher who gives the White Sox the true ace they need to make a run. His health, though, will be a lingering issue the whole season.
If he gives the Sox an entire season, expect them to roll this year.
Minnesota Twins Key Player: Joe Nathan
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You could easily say Justin Morneau here, but with the hits the Twins bullpen has taken, they absolutely need Nathan to return to form.
Nathan was one of the top closers in the game, and without him the Twins bullpen will be in trouble.
He gives them the ability to shut down games, where the rest of the guys in the bullpen might make any lead interesting.
So far so good this spring, which is a great sign for Twins fans.
Cleveland Indians Key Player: Grady Sizemore
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Grady Sizemore's inability to stay healthy has been destructive to the Indians.
He truly was a five-tool player and any chance for the Indians to return to the postseason begins and ends with Sizemore.
They have a few other pieces like Choo and Carmona, but Sizemore really is the face of this team.
It doesn't look like he'll be ready to start the season, which means it'll be a long year for an already long-suffering fan base.
Kansas City Royals Key Player: Eric Hosmer
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Or add Mike Montgomery or Mike Moustakas to that list. Take your pick of any of the top prospects in the Royals system.
Sorry Royals fans, the future is not now. But it's not that far away. The Royals have a loaded farm system and should be contenders in a few years.
The organization is definitely on the way up. They just need to keep some of the pieces they have now, such as Joaquin Soria, and they'll be very good soon.
Projected Records
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Projections
Detroit Tigers (90-72)
The back of the rotation steps up and Miguel Cabrera stays sober. The Tigers and White Sox fight tooth and nail the whole season.
Chicago White Sox (90-72)
The White Sox play well all year, but seeing how the AL Central is due for one again, they lose a play-in game to the Tigers and Justin Verlander.
Minnesota Twins (84-78)
The Twins stumble early behind their bullpen and lingering health issues, and their late-season charge is too little, too late this year.
Cleveland Indians (76-86)
The Indians surprise most by flirting with .500 as Carlos Santana emerges as one of the top catchers in the game.
Kansas City Royals (60-102)
It's gonna be a long season in KC, but this is really just all fluff before the kids get called up.
