Jason Bay had a terrible season last year. He was injured and missed over 60 games. Even when playing, his slugging was way down and he finished with his lowest home run total since his rookie season—during which he played in only 30 games. Prior to 2010, Bay had been a borderline great player that you could count on for 30 HRs and 100 RBI:
These stats show a player who is improving in the power categories and seems to have settled in at about a .260 to .270 batting average range. I believe this is the player the Mets were expecting when they signed him to a four-year $66 million deal.
In 2010, Bay hit the wall both literally and figuratively:
While we saw a steep fall in overall numbers, much of that can be accounted for by the decline in games played due to the concussion Bay suffered. However, what cannot be accounted for is the drop in slugging. Bay saw a huge decrease in power with only six home runs in 95 games. I think much of that can be attributed to the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field.
Last season, the center field fence was addressed, and we saw David Wright bounce back with 29 home runs. With a return to full health and a full season of production, I think we can expect to see much better stats from Mr. Bay in 2011. Probably not quite his Red Sox days, but at least starting outfield worthy.
2011 Fantasy Forecast: 90 R, 22 HR, 90 RBI, .260 Avg