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Jason Bay: Fantasy Baseball Bounce-Back Player of the Week

PORT ST. LUCIE, FL - FEBRUARY 24:  Jason Bay #44 of the New York Mets poses for a portrait during the New York Mets Photo Day on February 24, 2011 at Digital Domain Park in Port St. Lucie, Florida.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Elsa/Getty Images
Brian HoltContributor IMarch 4, 2011

Jason Bay had a terrible season last year. He was injured and missed over 60 games. Even when playing, his slugging was way down and he finished with his lowest home run total since his rookie season—during which he played in only 30 games. Prior to 2010, Bay had been a borderline great player that you could count on for 30 HRs and 100 RBI:

 

YearGamesRHRRBIAVGOBPSLGBABIP
2007145782184.247.327.418.292
200815511131101.286.373.522.321
200915110336119.267.384.537.315

 

These stats show a player who is improving in the power categories and seems to have settled in at about a .260 to .270 batting average range. I believe this is the player the Mets were expecting when they signed him to a four-year $66 million deal.

In 2010, Bay hit the wall both literally and figuratively:

YearGamesRHRRBIAVGOBPSLGBABIP
20109548647.259.347.402.329

 

While we saw a steep fall in overall numbers, much of that can be accounted for by the decline in games played due to the concussion Bay suffered. However, what cannot be accounted for is the drop in slugging. Bay saw a huge decrease in power with only six home runs in 95 games. I think much of that can be attributed to the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field.

Last season, the center field fence was addressed, and we saw David Wright bounce back with 29 home runs. With a return to full health and a full season of production, I think we can expect to see much better stats from Mr. Bay in 2011. Probably not quite his Red Sox days, but at least starting outfield worthy.

2011 Fantasy Forecast: 90 R, 22 HR, 90 RBI, .260 Avg

 

Previous Bounce-Back Selections: Pablo Sandoval, Justin Upton, Jimmy Rollins

 

Brian is a Senior Writer for 4thandHome.com where this, and other work, can be found. Additionally, he is co-host of the 4th and Home Radio show on Blog Talk Radio.

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