MLB Preview: Are the Houston Astros Too Young To Compete in the NL Central?
In 2010, the Houston Astros played well enough down the stretch to finish a better than expected 76-86. That was good enough to finish fourth in the NL Central. This year, however, the Astros are younger and more inexperienced.
With every other team in the division improving its roster during the offseason, the Astros have not done much as they are about to be sold. With so much uncertainty surrounding the team, can they do as well as they did last year?
Let's analyze each position and see if they can make a run for the Central.
Catcher: J.R. Towles and Humberto Quintero
1 of 12
In Houston, the battle for starting catcher is a mess. J.R. Towles (pictured at left) is a solid defender who can't hit a lick, and Humberto Quintero shouldn't even be considered for a starting job. To add insult to injury, prospect Jason Castro will now miss the season with a torn ACL.
The fact is that the Astros play in Texas, where people like everything bigger. At the catching position in Houston, neither Towles nor Quintero will put up big numbers. Both men played in under 100 games last year, and they just don't have what it takes to be a force behind the plate.
Unless another candidate emerges during spring training, look for Houston's catching situation to be just like the city itself: a hot mess.
First Base: Brett Wallace
2 of 12
On size alone, Brett Wallace is a dream first baseman. He has great size at 6'2" and 252 pounds and has a bright future as a powerful lefty bat. In 2011, he will have the opportunity to prove his worth as the Astros' starting first baseman.
Wallace was a late-season call up in 2010, posting a .222 batting average with two home runs and 13 RBI. The numbers aren't impressive, but believe me when I say that Wallace will emerge as a Rookie of the Year candidate.
He spent most of last season at Triple-A Las Vegas, where he batted .301 with 18 homers and 61 RBI. That was in 95 games. Just imagine what he could do on the major league level!
Wallace is still young at 24 and has already been traded three times in his career. Hopefully, Houston will be his last stop for a while and team management will be patient with him.
Second Base: Bill Hall
3 of 12
For the past few seasons, people have written Bill Hall off as being done. This is not fair at all. Many forget that he hit .270 with 35 home runs for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2006.
Still, he has not been the same since that season. Since 2008, Hall has essentially been in a reserve role. He somewhat bounced back last year with the Boston Red Sox, when he posted a .247 batting average with 18 homers and 46 RBI in just 120 games.
As of now, the veteran utility man is penciled in as Houston's starting second baseman. If he keeps that job, he can act as a mentor and leader to youngsters and fellow infielders like Wallace and Chris Johnson. His production will be hit or miss, but definitely count on Hall being a big locker room presence.
.png?w=256)
Shortstop: Clint Barmes
4 of 12
For the first time in his career, Clint Barmes is playing outside of the hitter-friendly Coors Field. Last year, in 133 games, he only managed to produce extremely mediocre numbers on offense: .235 average, eight home runs, and 50 RBI. That's not what you'd expect from a member of the Colorado Rockies.
This year, Barmes is in Minute Maid Park, considered to be more pitcher-friendly. For someone who wasn't really a great hitter to begin with, Barmes should be in for a tough 2011.
Third Base: Chris Johnson
5 of 12
This young man was a midseason call-up last year, and impressed right out of the gate. In 94 games, he hit .311 with 11 homers and 52 RBI. He has been the team's top prospect for a while, and he can only improve from here on out.
Johnson should have an even better 2011 now that he's a regular starter, but don't be surprised if he regresses just a bit. He is very impatient at the plate and swings freely. It will take him a while to get rolling, but he'll have a generally good season.
Left Field: Carlos Lee
6 of 12
2010 was not a good year for the man known as "El Caballo." After four consecutive seasons of 100-plus RBI and .300-plus batting average, Carlos Lee got off to a slow start and only hit .246 with 24 home runs and 89 RBI.
Chances are that Lee will have some sort of bounce back this season, but he still won't be the same player he was five years ago. He will turn 35 this season and has slowed down enough to the point where he is slowly becoming a liability in the outfield.
The offensive numbers may be there, but will they be enough to help a young team rise up?
Center Field: Michael Bourn
7 of 12
Bourn has been the Astros' bright All-Star for the past couple of seasons. He doesn't hit particularly well for average and has zero power whatsoever. Yet, he wows the fans and experts with his speed.
Bourn is a good leadoff man who can be a pest on the basepaths, so he has the potential to be one of few bright spots in Houston's starting lineup. Hopefully, if he keeps his strikeout totals down, he can finally have that .300-plus batting average season scouts say is just a year or so away.
Right Field: Hunter Pence
8 of 12
Last year, Hunter Pence was the most consistent hitter in the Astros' lineup. In 2011, he will hold onto that title.
He finished 2010 with a .282 average and 25 home runs, along with a career-high 91 RBI. This team's offense needs a leader and given the way Pence goes out and hits with ease night after night, he should step up.
He isn't too far removed from his stellar rookie season, so he would be the perfect candidate to lead the young guns like Wallace and Johnson. All that's left for him to do is actually do it before he becomes just another face in the crowd.
Starting Pitching
9 of 12
Last year, the Astros' rotation was a big question mark after Wandy Rodriguez. Fortunately, veteran Brett Myers (pictured at left) stepped up and took on a leadership role to help mold the young arms. He was so effective that the team signed him to an extension shortly before season's end. Here's what the rotation looks like it will be come Opening Day:
Wandy Rodriguez: 11-12, 3.78 ERA, 178 strikeouts
Brett Myers: 14-8, 3.14 ERA, 180 strikeouts
J.A. Happ: 6-4, 3.70 ERA, 70 strikeouts
Bud Norris: 9-10, 4.92 ERA, 158 strikeouts
Nelson Figueroa: 7-4, 3.29 ERA, 70 strikeouts (mostly out of the bullpen)
Some of those numbers may look solid, but the Astros' starting pitching is in for a tough 2011. The offense is unpredictable and as a result, the pitching will suffer. Don't expect much from these five guys.
Bullpen
10 of 12
It's safe to say that on teams like the Astros, save opportunities don't come about too often. Just ask closer Brandon Lyon (pictured at left), who only registered 20 saves in 79 games in 2010.
Lyon is the sole veteran arm in a bullpen that features young guns like Wesley Wright and former New York Yankees prospect Mark Melancon. Jeff Fulchino is another young arm in the 'pen, but he is coming off of elbow surgery. Unless Wright or Melancon steps up as a good bridge to Lyon, I wouldn't expect much out of Houston's relief pitching.
Manager: Brad Mills
11 of 12
After managing in the minor leagues for 11 seasons, Brad Mills came up to the majors and had a number of coaching stints. His most significant one was from 2004-2009, when he was the bench coach for the Boston Red Sox. His manager there was Terry Francona, so he of course had a good managing mentor.
That being said, Mills's first season in Houston wasn't bad at all. The team didn't make the playoffs, but they still did fairly well considering who was in the lineup. This year, however, the Astros are a new look team. And not in the good way, either.
In 2011, Mills will receive a wake-up call. He cannot rely on young talent alone if he wants to win. He has lost his clubhouse leader in Lance Berkman, and that is really going to hurt unless someone else steps up and fills that void.
Final Thoughts
12 of 12
So, given the multitude of youth on the team and the lack of overall veteran leadership, are the Houston Astros good enough to compete in the National League Central Division? I'm sad to say this, but the answer is no. They are simply too young of a team.
At this point, all the team can hope for is one of the few veterans stepping up and inspiring everyone. It doesn't matter if it's Pence, Lee or Myers. Any of those three will work.
The team is about to be sold, so there's no chance of signing a big name free agent in the near future. On top of that, trading for an expiring contract will be complicated. That all being said, 2011 is going to be a long and hard season for the boys in Houston.
Final Prediction: 61 wins, last in the NL Central
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
