Washington Nationals: Five Reasons Why the Nats Could Win the NL East in 2012
I know, I know. You must think I'm crazy. Maybe I am. But there's no question that, for the first time in a long, long while, there's legitimate excitement about the future of baseball in Washington, D.C.
Am I jumping the gun a little bit? Maybe. Could I be falling for the hype and headed for inevitable disappointment? It's possible. But maybe I'm right.
Since the return of baseball to the nation's capital in 2005, Nationals fans have had very little to be excited about. It wasn't like the Minnesota Twins or Texas Rangers (former Washington Senators franchises) were returning home after leaving this town without America's pastime since 1971. The Twins at least had a young Joe Mauer and Johan Santana on the roster.
Nope. We got the Montreal Expos whose best players were Jose Vidro and Livan Hernandez (who's still truckin' by the way).
Despite the lack of talent, baseball was welcomed home in D.C. with open arms. The addition of Alfonso Soriano was icing on the cake.
Unfortunately for Nats fans, Soriano was the lone bright spot on a team that was lackluster from top to bottom, including management and ownership.
And so it began, a five year stretch of less than stellar baseball. A fan base that was initially buzzing with a boyish excitement began to dwindle, year after disappointing year. An attendance mark that was 11th in Major League Baseball in 2005 fell to 24th in 2009.
Just when it couldn't get any worse, the Nationals were rewarded for all those years of losing. A franchise saving player arrived gift-wrapped in the 2009 MLB draft: Stephen Strasburg.
Instantly, the buzz was back! After his first major league start in which he fanned 14 Pirates with 100mph fastballs and looping curveballs, Nationals fans finally had something to be excited about.
Strasburg would go on to have his season cut short, requiring Tommy John surgery, but his 5-3 output (with almost no run support to speak of) left a lasting impact in D.C.
So here we are, heading into 2011 blessed with another 1st overall pick waiting in the wings, a phenom named Bryce Harper. Throw in a change in management, a big free agent signing, and responsible roster improvements and we have a team that's ready to compete.
This upcoming season won't be the prettiest. It won't be nearly as bad as last year or the year prior, but don't expect a miracle. The Nationals have a lot of young, talented players that are still getting used to the big leagues, but the foundation has been built. I contend that this team has a real chance to win the NL East in 2012 and make a decent playoff run.
Here's why.
Number 5: New, Better Management
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When Ted Lerner and company bought the Nationals in 2006, one thing we knew he has plenty of is money. His estimated worth in 2010 was over $3 billion.
Unfortunately, however, the Nationals appeared unwilling to spend big money over the years, letting free agents like Alfonso Soriano and Adam Dunn walk away. As a Nats fan, it was frustrating to see teams like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox throw money at free agents while the Nationals stood by and watched.
That is until they gave Jayson Werth a blockbuster 7-year, $126 million contract. Sure, they probably overpaid, but that's what a bad team has to do to bring in real talent. It's a good sign that the owner actually wants to win in this league.
Two years ago, Jim Bowden, then General Manager of the Nationals, had this team spinning its wheels. Not only could he not make the team better, but he was also the center of an embarrassing scandal in the Dominican Republic involving bonuses paid to DR prospects.
Stan Kasten, then President of the Nationals, was part of the problem as well. He had good intentions and great enthusiasm, but he also marketed tickets to Nationals games in Philadelphia, basically inviting Phillies fans to come on down.
Enter Mike Rizzo, the former Director of Scouting for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He was brought into D.C. as a temporary stop-gap after the Jim Bowden debacle, but quickly proved to be a talented, responsible baseball mind.
He was promoted to full time General Manager and Executive VP of Baseball operations, and he has been making all the right moves, developing prospects and building around Ryan Zimmerman just to name a couple.
Number 4: Passionate Fans
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Back in the '50s and '60s, Major League Baseball was the center of attention in America, and the Washington Senators were the center of attention in D.C.
Although they were never particularly good, Washingtonians were still passionate, and Robert F. Kennedy (RFK) Stadium was a fun place to watch baseball.
My Dad would tell me stories of watching Frank Howard hit monster home runs. He would always focus on one in particular in which Howard hit a line drive where the ball soared ten feet off the ground, slowly rising like a missile, finally ending up in the top-level of the upper deck. The seat in which the ball landed was painted white, along with a few others courtesy of Howard, and they're still white to today.
This is a baseball town. Sure, the Washington Redskins will always be a cornerstone in D.C., but baseball is at the city's foundation.
These fans are ready for a winning team. We're ready to cheer for a contender. With guys like Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, and Bryce Harper likely playing together five to ten years, Nationals Stadium is a place that really could create a true home field advantage.
No. 3: Competition
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I know this part of the article will probably generate some backlash from Mets, Braves, and Phillies fans (sorry to the 17 Marlins fans I'm ignoring), but the NL East isn't what it was a few years ago.
I'd like to apologize in advance. I'm a Nationals fan and couldn't possibly know the ins and outs of the teams listed above as well as their own fans. All I can do in this limited capacity is provide a quick snapshot from an outsider.
The New York Mets, despite their payroll, simply can't find a way to win. Whether it's Carlos Beltran missing more games than he plays, Jose Reyes' lack of power, or David Wright losing the Gold Glove battle to his buddy Ryan Zimmerman, they just can't get it right.
The Atlanta Braves are a pretty good team every year, but not great. Jason Heyward looks to be a rising star, but I think Chipper Jones' age and diminishing play are going to keep this team from going very far.
The Florida Marlins just don't have the management. They develop great players and immediately ship them out.
The Philadelphia Phillies are great and only got greater with the additions of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. They're clearly the team to beat in the NL East and I hope they and the Nationals battle it out for the next decade.
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No. 2: Leadership
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Jim Riggleman was given the keys to the Nationals car in a temporary move following the firing of Manny Acta. He had all the experience in the world but was thought to be a short-term solution until Mike Rizzo could find a full-time replacement.
He didn't have to look very far. Riggleman immediately showed that he's capable of managing this team and moving things in the right direction and the "interim" tag was deservedly removed.
He respects his players and lets them play the game, and they respect him for that.
The Nationals also have a leader on the field.
Ryan Zimmerman, the face of the franchise, has proven to be a solid Major League Baseball player. There's a reason why he was chosen to welcome both Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper at their introductory press conferences.
Additionally, established veterans like Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche, and Livan Hernandez provide much needed locker room support and on-field leadership.
No. 1: Talent
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The Nationals can have all four of the previous team attributes, and that's great, but it doesn't mean they're going to do anything. It's nice to have responsible management and effective leadership, but it doesn't necessarily translate to winning.
What does translate to winning is talent. And for the first time since coming back to D.C., the Nationals actually have it, and a lot of it.
Ryan Zimmerman has always been talented. Since bursting onto the scene his rookie season, he's been widely regarded across the league as a rising star. Unfortunately, he hasn't had a ton of talent around him.
Adam Dunn can hit home runs, sure, but he doesn't do a whole lot else. And pardon me for saying that guys like Dimitri Young, Christian Guzman, and Josh Willingham probably wouldn't have been starting if they'd been on good major league teams.
Heading into 2011, though, Zimmerman finally has the pieces around him. Mike Rizzo and Jim Riggleman brought in proven veterans like Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche, and we're watching budding stars like Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa grow before our eyes.
Even guys like Michael Morse and Roger Bernadina are showing great potential.
Pitching isn't where it needs to be yet, but it's getting there. Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler are quickly rising. Veterans Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, and Tom Gorzelanny provide stability, and Drew Storen is shaping up to be a legitimate big-league closer.
Not to mention Stephen Strasburg, who will be back in 2012, and Bryce Harper, who will likely be called up for opening day in 2012, if not then, soon after.
The Nationals have been a running joke for the past five years. But now, and especially in 2012, this team is ready to play. And ready to win.
So what's this contender going to look like in 2012?
2012 Batting Order and Starting Rotation
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Lineup:
1. Nyjer Morgan / Roger Bernadina, CF
2. Ian Desmond, SS
3. Jayson Werth, LF
4. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
5. Adam LaRoche / Michael Morse, 1B
6. Bryce Harper, RF
7. Danny Espinosa, 2B
8. Jesus Flores / Wilson Ramos, C
9. Pitcher
Rotation:
1. Stephen Strasburg
2. Jordan Zimmermann
3. Ross Detwiler
4. John Lannon / Livan Hernandez / Yunesky Maya
5. Tom Gorzelanny / Jason Marquis / Garrett Mock / Colin Ballester
Bullpen: Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Todd Coffey, Henry Rodriguez, Craig Stammen
Closer: Drew Storen
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