Cleveland Indians: 10 Over/Under Predictions for the 2011 Season
Prior to the Cinderella run the Cleveland Indians put together in 2007, they had not made the ALCS since 1998.
From 1998 through 2007?
The Tribe managed only two other playoff appearances in 1999, and then again in 2001.
Since 2007, however, Cleveland has seen a gradual decreases in wins in addition to simultaneously losing two Cy Young winners (C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee).
Well, Cleveland fans, the beauty of each new season is that everyone begins 0-0 and it's anyone's championship to win.
Therefore, here are 10 over/under predictions for the Tribe this summer. Take a look!
Over/Under: .300 Batting Average for Shin-Soo Choo
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The past three seasons, Shin-Soo Choo has hit at least .300, while increasing his home runs and RBI each year.
He was also more patient at the plate in 2010 in drawing 83 walks, up four from 79 in 2009.
The big difference here is that in 2009, he struck-out 151 times.
In 2010? Only 118 strike-outs, a decrease of 33 in one season.
If his other teammates, such as Asdrubal Cabrera, can maintain their consistency, then expect even more from Choo in 2011.
PREDICTION: Over a .300 Batting Average
Over/Under: 20 Steals for Grady Sizemore
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For his career, he has 134 steals and has only been caught 41 times.
2008 was his best year for swiping bags. He took 38 and was only caught five times.
His average per year is just under 20 and after an injury-prone 2010 season, Grady may not be ready come opening day.
Not to mention, even when healthy, his best year at the plate was .290 in 2006.
PREDICTION: Under 20 Stolen Bases
Over/Under: .990 Fielding Percentage for Asdrubal Cabrera
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He's easily the most versatile infielder on the team, and arguably one of the best gloves in baseball.
He has the ability to play either second base, third base or shortstop.
As of now, he's the starting shortstop and has a .974 career fielding percentage at that position.
This season, don't expect anything less than his best efforts. Maybe that could spark the Tribe into priding themselves on playing great defense.
Can Cabrera be perfect?
I challenge him to do so. Because one error could be the season, just ask Bill Buckner.
PREDICTION: Over a .990 Fielding Percentage
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Over/Under: 100 RBI for Travis Hafner
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Each year from 2004 through 2007, Travis Hafner drove in over 100 runs and jacked the ball at least 20 times.
Also, he batted over .300 from 2004-2006 and was actually under .300 during that Cinderella 2007 season.
After 2007 through 2009, Hafner got progressively worse and also battled some injuries.
However, in 2010 he got back on track a bit by driving in 50 runs with just under 400 appearances at the plate.
For himself, he should have high expectations coming into this season and he could go under the radar to opposing pitchers.
PREDICTION: Over 100 RBI's
Over/Under: 3.00 ERA for Fausto Carmona
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After his dominant 19-8 campaign with a 3.06 ERA in 2007, Fausto Carmona had significantly dropped off right after.
2008 was a winning record of 8-7, but his ERA increased to 5.44.
Then it only got worse in 2009, when he went 5-12 with an ERA over six.
2010 however, showed signs of light at the end of the tunnel, with Fausto going 13-14 (with hardly any offense) and an ERA of 3.77.
And since he somewhat got back on track last season...
What is in store for 2011?
Well, he's shown that he has the potential to win 20 games with an ERA of 3.00 or less, but baby steps.
Don't expect an overzealous performance when he's not back to his 2007 self just yet.
PREDICTION: Over an ERA of 3.00
Over/Under 40 Saves for Chris Perez
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Despite having a winning record in one-run games in 2010 (24-20) the Tribe needs to turn more of those games around if they want to compete within their division.
Just think if 10 of those games were wins, then you're looking at a 79-83 record.
As for Chris Perez, he had 32 saves on the year in 43 opportunities with a record of 6-7.
He also had a decent 3.06 ERA in 161.2 innings.
However, 11 blown saves is 11 more than he or any Cleveland fan wants.
2010 was his rookie year though, so you can't ask for much more.
2011 should be improved and have increased expectations.
PREDICTION: Over 40 Saves
Over/Under 5 All-Star Selections
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After Fausto Carmona was the lone representative for the Tribe in 2010, 2011 looks a bit more promising.
If players like Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera can maintain/improve what they've done in previous seasons, look for them to crash the party.
Long shots are Travis Hafner and Carlos Santana, but not out of the "this is ridiculous" realm.
Also, if closer Chris Perez can up his save and win total from last season don't be surprised if he is in consideration.
However, you can't ask for too much in a rebuilding season, so don't get your hopes up.
PREDICTION: Under Five All-Stars
Over/Under 700 Runs Scored
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In 2010 the Indians scored only 646 runs.
That dismal number ranked them 12th out of 14 AL teams in runs scored, just in front of Seattle and Baltimore.
If they want to win more games, how else do they think that's going to happen?
Get some runs across the plate and start taking some chances.
That's just under four runs per game, which may seem like a lot; But not when you compare it to division champion Minnesota (781 on the year, averaging almost five per game).
PREDICTION: Over 700 Runs Scored
Over/Under 700 Runs Allowed
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Much like their ranking in runs scored, the Tribe ranked 12th in runs allowed in the AL.
After giving up 752 runs in 2010, Cleveland needs to improve (as a unit) in the field.
Obviously the pitching staff needs to improve in their collaborative ERA as well, which was 4.30 in 2010 ranking them 24th in all of the bigs.
Improvement seems to be on the rise, and once the season begins you can only stay optimistic.
PREDICTION: Under 700 Runs Allowed
Over/Under 81 Wins for the Tribe
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Can Cleveland slowly work back their way into the ranks?
Well, a division championship (although not an unrealistic thought) is about a year or two away.
After winning 97 games in 2007, the Tribe dropped to 81 games in 2008 and 65 games in 2009.
They did improve last year by winning four more games, but four games in a 162 game season is barely noticeable.
With that being said however, the Indians do have some of the pieces to put together a respectable ball-club and a record around .500 is a definite possibility.
PREDICTION: Over 81 Wins
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