New York Mets 2011 Preview: Handicapping a No-No and 19 Other Single-Game Feats
Will the New York Mets toss a no-hitter in 2011? No? How about slugging a walk-off grand slam, a steal of home, a triple play or back-to-back-to-back homers?
Spring training games got underway this weekend and that means that Opening Day is just a month away.
With that in mind, here are 20 single-game accomplishments up for grabs in 2011.
Some, like a complete game or a multi-home run outing, are sure bets. Others, like hitting for the cycle are less likely, but still very much possible.
In this slideshow I have handicapped 20 feats, showing the last time it happened and who is most likely to re-write the record books this season.
Multi-Home Run Game -500
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Last time it happened: Carlos Beltran, Sept. 26, 2010 at Philadelphia.
Beltran hit a solo shot in the fifth off of Cole Hamels and a two-run blast off of Ryan Madson in the ninth. It was his 27th multi-home run game and the 322nd in Mets history.
The Mets have averaged six multi-homer games each year, so at least one is 2011 is a safe bet.
Most likely options: Ike Davis, Jason Bay.
Hit For the Cycle +300
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Last time it happened: Jose Reyes, June 21, 2006 vs. Cincinnati
Reyes led off the bottom of the first inning with a home run, doubled in the third and tripled in the fifth. He completed the cycle bid with an eight-inning single off Jason Standridge.
There have been nine Mets who have hit for the cycle, one every 5.5 years. It's certainly not a given that this will happen. The hardest part of the cycle is the triple, so the player needs good speed, a little pop and an element of good fortune.
Most likely 2011 options: Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan.
Inside-the-Park Home Run -200
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Last time it happened: Angel Pagan, May 19, 2010 at Washington
Pagan legged out an inside-the-park homer with two outs in the fourth inning off Nats' Livan Hernandez.
His drive to center field bounced off the wall and away from Nyjer Morgan and third-base coach Chip Hale gave him the green light to head for home.
It was the first inside-the-park home run since Pagan led off with one against the Phillies on Aug. 23, 2009, at Citi Field.
There's enough speed on the Mets roster that this is a realistic goal, especially considering the spacious outfield at Citi Field.
Most likely 2011 options: Angel Pagan.
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Walk-Off Home Run -200
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Last time it happened: Josh Thole, Oct. 1, 2010 vs. Washington.
Thole smacked a 3-1 pitch into the right-field stands in the 10th inning off Tyler Clippard to give the Mets their eighth walk-off victory of the 2010 season and the fourth via a home run.
The walk-off blast was the 115th such occurrence in Mets history, meaning they have averaged roughly two a season.
There's no guarantee in will happen in 2011, but it's not a bad bet to make.
Most likely 2011 option: David Wright.
Pinch-Hit Home Run -300
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Last time it happened: Fernando Tatis, April 20, 2010, vs. Chicago Cubs.
Tatis' third pinch-hit home run as a Met came against John Grabow with two outs in the bottom of the eighth. The drive to left-center scored Ike Davis and gave the Mets a 4-0 lead.
The Mets have hit 135 pinch-hit homers in its 49-year history, so it's almost a certainty that they hit at least one this year.
Assuming the Mets don't bring in a starter who had a regular day off to pinch hit late in a close game, there's only a few real options to go deep.
Most likely 2011 option: Scott Hairston or Daniel Murphy.
Walk-Off Grand Slam +1100
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Last time it happened: Kevin McReynolds, June 25, 1991, vs. Montreal
The Mets plated four runs in the first inning and carried the lead into the fifth frame before the Expos rallied for five runs off Doc Gooden. The Mets loaded the bases in the ninth inning, but Gregg Jefferies popped out in foul ground down the first base line to put the club down to their last out.
McReynolds was down to his final strike, but he took the 2-2 pitch deep to left-centerfield to give the Mets the dramatic victory.
Only three Mets have ever hit a grand slam walk-off. Mike Jorgensen did it against Rick Sutcliffe in 1980; Tim Teufel broke an 11th-inning 4-4 tie by taking the Phillies' Tom Hume deep in 1986; and Kevin McReynolds hit a three-on, two-out jack against Scott Ruskin and the Expos to walk off 20 years ago.
A lot of things needs to go right. You need to be at home, you have to be in at least the ninth inning, you need to have the bases loaded and you need to be tied or losing by no more than three runs. It doesn't happen that often, and I don't think you'll see it at Citi Field in 2011 either.
Most likely 2011 option: You have to look to the middle of the order. Bay or Wright have to be the top contenders.
A Three-Home Run Game +400
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Last time it happened: Jose Reyes, Aug. 15, 2006, at Philadelphia
Reyes took the very first pitch of the game for a homer run, then he tagged Randy Wolf for a second bomb with one out in the third. Reyes completed his historic day with a two-run jack off Brian Sanches in the eighth inning.
There have been seven games where a Met has slugged three homers in the same game...once in the '60s, once in the '70s, three times in the 1980s, once in the '90s and once in the last decade.
It happened just five years ago, and there's a pretty good chance it won't happen this year, especially by someone like Reyes who only has 74 homers in eight years.
Most likely 2011 option: David Wright.
Six Home Runs As a Team +650
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Last time it happened: April 19, 2005 at Philadelphia
On April 19, the Mets didn't hit just six home runs, they hit seven in a 16-4 blowout. Jose Reyes and Victor Diaz each hit two, and Mike Piazza, Doug Mientkiewicz and David Wright each went yard.
It was the third time the Mets have hit six or more homers in a game, following six on June 15, 1999 and April 4, 1988.
Since 1920 there have been 303 games where one team has hit six or more homers. That's in all of baseball. Ever. Do the Mets have a chance at a six-homer game? They will likely need at least four people to go deep, maybe even five and, potentially, six.
If it's going to happen, it's going to have to be on the road.
Most likely 2011 option: Wright, Davis, Bay, Beltran, Emaus and Thole.
Back-to-Back-to-Back Home Runs +400
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Last time it happened: June 7, 2007 vs. Philadelphia
Carlos Delgado, David Wright and Paul Lo Duca hit consecutive homers off Cole Hamels in the sixth inning of a game at home to the Phillies.
Eight different Mets had double-digit home runs in the 2007 season...Lo Duca was not one of them. All this tells you is that if you have two awesome power hitters, a role player can be the third person to join the party.
You have to assume that both Beltran and Bay will produce double-digit homers in 2011. Thole, Reyes and Angel won't bring too much pop in the nine-one-two holes in the lineup, but everyone else has at least a puncher's chance. Either way, you have to think someone in the meat of the lineup like Bay will have to be involved.
Most likely 2011 option: Wright-Beltran-Bay or Bay-Davis-Emaus.
Complete Game -2000
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Last time it happened: R.A. Dickey, Sept. 14, 2010, vs. Pittsburgh
The knuckleballer allowed one run on five hits and three walks while striking out four over nine dominant innings in a 9-1 victory at Citi Field. Dickey needed 127 pitches to get through the complete game.
The Mets have averaged around 20 complete games a year, so it's not a matter of "if?" it's a question of "when?"
New York's rotation is a mess, but it's a clad iron guarantee that its pitchers will hurl multiple complete games. The Pittsburgh Pirates had a team ERA of 5.00 last year and they even had one. Even without counting the efforts of Johan, the Mets had four.
Santana alone could have one or two in 2011 after he returns from injury although the Mets will likely keep him on somewhat of a leash.
Most likely 2011 option: Mike Pelfrey.
Back-to-Back Shutouts +1300
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Last time it happened: David Cone, 1992
Before Cone was a Cy Young award winner in Kansas he was also a pretty great pitcher in New York.
During the '92 season, he tossed a seven-hit shutout against the San Diego Padres on May 19 and then followed it up with a four-hit, 10-strikeout gem on the road in San Francisco five days later.
It's a little surprising that it hasn't happened since, but it goes to show just how difficult it is to dominate two lineups in succession. When studs like Santana only toss two a season, having them back-to-back is near impossible. Remove Santana from the equation and it gets even less likely.
Most likely 2011 option: R.A. Dickey.
Three Straight Shutouts As a Team +600
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Last time it happened: May 25, 2010 to May 27, 2010 vs Philadelphia
After 8-0 and 5-0 victories over the reigning NL East champs, the Mets blanked the Phillies 3-0 behind seven innings from Mike Pelfrey and three hits and two RBI from Jose Reyes.
According to a Newsday report, It was the seventh time in franchise history that the Mets have pitched three straight shutouts and the first since April 12-15, 1988, when the pitchers were Ron Darling and Bobby Ojeda (against Montreal) and Dwight Gooden (against St. Louis).
The last time the Mets shut out one team over a three-game span was at Philadelphia on Sept. 26-28, 1969. The starting pitchers were named Koosman, Seaver and Gentry.
This kind of feat has happened once every seven years in Mets history, so a repeat is unlikely, especially against a team like Philadelphia.
Most likely 2011 option: Early-to-mid June, when the Mets play six with the Pirates, six with the Braves and three with the Brewers.
10 Strikeouts -600
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Last time it happened: Pat Misch, Oct. 1, 2010, vs. Washington
Misch fanned 10 in eight innings in a no-decision against the Nats. It was the 303rd time a Mets pitcher reached double-digit Ks, and the 19th time over the past four seasons.
That averages out at five or six a year, so there's a really great chance that at least a couple starters will achieve this in 2011.
Most likely 2011 option: Mike Pelfrey.
15+ Strikeouts +450
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Last time it happened: Al Leiter, Aug. 1, 1999, at Chicago Cubs
Leiter struck out a career-high 15 Cubbies over seven sparkling innings in a no-decision in a game the Mets won 5-4 in 13 innings.He struck out the side in the second and fourth innings and whiffed at least two batters in six of the seven frames.
Leiter did not have another double-digit K game that year, and he only had two more starts with 10 or more strikeouts in his career.
There have been 15 games in Mets history where a New York pitcher has fanned 15 or more, so that averages out at around one every three years.
Most likely 2011 option: Johan Santana or Mike Pelfrey.
3 Hits by a Pitcher +250
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Last time it happened: Tom Glavine, Aug. 11, 2005 at San Diego
Glavine, who allowed two runs on nine hits over seven innings, singled three times off Padres' Woody Williams. He went to left field in the third, to center in the fifth and then the other way again with a liner in the seventh.
For Glavine, a career .186 hitter, it was his second three-hit game.
It marked the 24th and most recent time that a Met pitcher had three base knocks. That averages out at one every other year. No Met pitcher has ever had a four-hit offensive performance.
Most likely 2011 option: R.A. Dickey.
4 RBI by a Pitcher +600
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Last time it happened: Dwight Gooden, May 11, 1990 vs. Los Angeles
Gooden plated Daryl Boston on a groundout in the second inning, beating the throw on the back end of a double play attempt. Dodgers pitcher Mike Morgan had a 3-2 lead going in to the third inning, but after two walks, a single through the hole, a run-scoring groundout and a ground rule double, the Mets had a 4-3 lead.
With two outs, Morgan intentionally walked Mackey Sasser to get to Gooden, a career .183 hitter heading into the season. On a 2-2 pitch, Gooden laced a drive to centerfield, clearing the bases and padding the lead with his second, third and fourth RBI of the day.
It has only happened six times in Mets history, or once every eight years. The Mets are more than due.
Most likely 2011 option: R.A. Dickey
A 1-0 Mets Victory -1300
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Last time it happened: Sept. 13, 2010, vs. Pittsburgh
Dillon Gee scattered five hits over six innings, Elmer Dessens and Pedro Feliciano tossed a perfect inning apiece and Hisanori Takahashi worked around a walk and a base hit to seal the 10-inning win. Nick Evans had the walk-off hit, scoring Ruben Tejada from second base with one out.
Of New York's 79 wins in 2010, 19—almost one quarter—were shutouts. Of these 19, five were 1-0 games. Two were against Philly and one each was against Atlanta and Colorado.
It's almost a certainty that there will be a lot more in 2011.
Most likely 2011 option: Vs. Philly when Joe Blanton starts.
Triple Play +600
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Last time it happened: May 19, 2010 at Washington
Angel Pagan had quite a day. After an inside the park home run, Pagan started the first Mets triple play in eight years with a shoestring catch in center field.
The Nationals had runners on first and second in the fifth. Pagan snagged Cristian Guzman's sinking line drive and threw home. Catcher Henry Blanco alertly threw to shortstop Jose Reyes at second base to double off Livan Hernandez. Reyes relayed to first baseman Ike Davis to catch Nyjer Morgan to complete the triple play.
It was the 10th in Mets history. The last one came May 17, 2002, against San Diego, an around-the-horn play on a groundball by Wiki Gonzalez.
Most likely 2011 option: With men on first and second and a contact hitter at the plate, the runners take off on a hit-and-run play. The batter lines the ball at Reyes, who is shaded toward second. He steps on second to double off the lead runner and then tags then throws to first.
Steal Of Home +200
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Last time it happened: Luis Castillo, Sept. 4, 2010 at Chicago Cubs
Trailing 2-0 in the fourth inning, the Mets had Castillo on third base and Carlos Beltran on first. There was one out and Lucas Duda had worked the count full.
Beltran was running on the pitch but Duda struck out swinging. The Cubs tried to nail Beltran at second base, but the outfielder slid around Stalin Castro's poor tag. Castillo, meanwhile, had edged off of third and scored standing up without a play on the back end of the double steal when the throw went to second.
Most likely 2011 option: Jose Reyes or Angel Pagan.
No-Hitter +5000
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Last time it happened: Never
Just for fun, I had to throw this one out there. Only New York and San Diego have never tossed a no-hitter. The Padres have been around since 1969, making the Mets the longest-standing franchise without a no-no.
At the start of the season, the Mets will have played 7,806 games without accomplishing the feat.
They have had 35 one-hitters. Ten pitchers tossed a no-hitter before they came to the Mets and six different pitchers did it after leaving the Mets. Nolan Ryan tossed seven after he left New York.
Most likely 2011 option: You would have to say Johan I suppose, but John Maine and R.A. Dickey came close in 2007 and 2010 respectively and Jonathon Niese tossed a gem last year.
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