2011 NFL Mock Draft: Worst-Case Scenarios for All 32 1st-Round Picks
The results of the first round of the NFL Draft usually determine if a team was successful or not.
Not all first-round picks are sure Hall of Famers. There will be breakout players, starters and all-stars that will come out of the first round.
There will also be busts and players hampered by injuries throughout their careers.
Here is the latest mock draft for the first round and the worst-case scenarios for each team.
1. Panthers: Nick Fairley, Auburn
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For Carolina, it is either going to be Fairley or Bowers from Clemson.
The Combine will showcase both players' skills and flaws.
I still see Fairley going No. 1 because of the immediate impact he would make on the defensive line. Fariley will dominate the line for years to come.
Worst-Case Scenario: Fairley has a subpar Combine performance. Bowers outperforms Fairley, especially in the strength drills.
Things cannot get much worse in Carolina right now. Whether they take Fairley or Bowers, they should have a defensive playmaker for years to come.
2. Denver Broncos: Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
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Da'Quan Bowers out of Clemson is the best pure pass rusher in this draft. He has drawn comparisons to Julius Peppers.
Bowers has the speed to rush off the outside and the power to burst up the middle.
Worst-Case Scenario: Bowers gets selected No. 1 overall. Although the Broncos do not need a DT, I don't know if they can pass on Fairley.
3. Buffalo Bills: Marcell Dareus, Alabama
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Dareus is known for knocking out Colt McCoy is the BCS title game two years ago.
But, he should also be known as a great DT who can clog the middle of the field.
Worst-Case Scenario: Dareus played only two years at Alabama. He disappeared during some games. Dareus is a mini reach at No. 3, but the Bills need a defensive lineman. The worse case is if the Bills pass on Cam Newton and he becomes a star.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, Georgia
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A.J. Green may be the best prospect out of this entire draft. If Carolina had more of a need for a WR, Green could easily be the No. 1 overall pick.
T.O. is likely leaving the Bengals and Chad Johnson's status with the team is also up in the air.
Green will be a number one WR for a long time.
Worst-Case Scenario: If the Bengals draft Green and trade Carson Palmer, who will throw the ball to Green?
5. Arizona Cardinals: Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
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Most people have Gabbert as the top QB in this year's draft. Cam Newton may have the higher upside, but Gabbert is a safe bet to be a good starter in the NFL.
Gabbert has all the tools to become a great NFL QB. He has good accuracy, and knows how to win ball games.
Worst-Case Scenario: Cardinals select Gabbert over Newton. Newton becomes a star with his athletic ability at the QB position.
6. Cleveland Browns: Patrick Peterson, LSU
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Peterson is another prospect who could also go No. 1 overall if Carolina had different needs.
Peterson has the size and speed to be the next shutdown corner in the NFL.
His tackling skills make him the complete package.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Bills take Peterson with the third pick. That leaves the Browns with the option of selecting Dareus or taking the next DE off the board.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
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There really is not much of a drop-off in talent between the number one and number two CBs in this draft.
The 49ers will be happy to land Amukamara here at No. 7.
He is another shutdown corner in the making.
Worst-Case Scenario: The 49ers reach for another QB to replace Alex Smith. That QB, whether it is Locker or Newton, turns out to be another big bust for San Fran.
8. Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker, Washington
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This may be a little bit of a stretch for the Titans here at No. 8, but Gabbert is already gone.
Locker has the tools and the ability for him to be an NFL star.
He also has the inconsistency to be a big time bust.
Worst-Case Scenario: Titans select Locker, who continues to have his up-and-down ways. He will not be ready to start for 2-3 years.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Nate Solder, Colorado
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Solder is the cream of the crop for offensive linemen this year.
Solder has the size and quickness to make him a reliable tackle in the NFL.
Dallas allowed 31 sacks last year. With Romo back in at QB, they are going to need to shore up his protection.
Worst-Case Scenario: Dallas takes Solder but Tyron Smith becomes the best OL out of this class. He continues to rise up draft boards and may have the most potential out of the class.
10. Washington Redskins: Cam Newton, Auburn
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Do the Redskins dare pick another Auburn QB in the first round?
What else do they have to lose? They are going to have to find another QB if they let McNabb go.
Newton could fit well in a Mike Shanahan offense. He will be able to use his legs and work outside the pocket.
Worst-Case Scenario: Newton is the biggest bust of the draft. The college system he played will not work well in the NFL. Teams will be all over the ball when he starts to get inaccurate.
11. Houston Texans: Von Miller, Texas A&M
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With Wade Phillips now taking control of the Houston defense, the Texans are going to need another LB to fit into the 3-4 scheme.
Miller will be the first LB to go off the board this year. He is drawing comparisons to Clay Matthews.
Pretty lofty expectations for a rookie.
Worst-Case Scenario: Miller gets taken in the top seven. Houston then has to decide whether to take a defensive back or a DL. Robert Quinn or Amukamara would be decent consolation prizes.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Tyron Smith, USC
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Tyron Smith is rising up many draft boards around the league.
At 6'5" and 280 pounds, he would seem too small to play OT in the NFL.
However, Smith makes up for his size with his speed and his strength. He is very strong for only being 280 pounds, and should be able to hold blocks well.
Worst-Case Scenario: Smith gets taken in the top 10, maybe by Dallas. The Vikings are left to take Solder or the next DE on their board.
13. Detroit Lions: Akeem Ayers, UCLA
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Julian Peterson will not be back for Detroit so they will have to shore up an already weak LB corps.
Ayers should be able to come in right away and be a starter.
Ayers has the perfect size to play LB at the next level. His speed and his ability to play up on the line will boost his stock come draft day.
Worst-Case Scenario: With the top two CBs already off the board, the Lions reach and select Jimmy Smith here.
14. St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones, Alabama
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The Rams and Jones seem like a match made in heaven.
St. Louis needs a young WR that Bradford can target. With a top target like Jones, Bradford could blossom into a top-10 QB.
He had a very productive rookie season with inadequate WRs around him.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Redskins or another team select Jones with their pick. If the Rams leave this draft without Julio Jones, the draft is a bust.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, Alabama
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Ingram should be the third Crimson Tide player selected in the first round.
Both of Miami's RBs are free agents and they may lose both.
Even if they re-signed one, Miami still needs depth at that position. With the wildcat in place, the Dolphins need to have two starting RBs.
Worst-Case Scenario: After coming off knee surgery last offseason, Ingram did not have a great follow-up year to his Heisman season. Ingram may be plagued by injuries due to his small frame.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Robert Quinn, UNC
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Quinn may be long gone here, but on my list he is still available and a perfect fit for the Jags.
Jacksonville badly needs a pass rusher to get to the QB.
Quinn is another athletic DE that should be in the NFL's elite class in the a few years.
Worst-Case Scenario: Quinn gets selected before 16. Jags have to take a DE here, so they select Cameron Jordan out of Cal.
17. New England Patriots (from OAK): Cameron Jordan, Cal
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Jordan was a standout at this year's Senior Bowl, making him a definite top-20 pick this year.
New England has few needs. They have their choice between OL, DL and LB.
Worst-Case Scenario: Until this year, Jordan was no where to be found. Coming into this year he was projected to go in the sixth round. He disappears under Belichick's system.
18. San Diego Chargers: Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
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I have a feeling that Carimi will improve his draft stock at the Combine. He will show off his great footwork and strength.
The Chargers have needed an OT for years now, and it's about time they get one.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Chargers pass on Carimi and instead take Justin Houston. Larry English turns out to be what they thought they were getting and now they are stuck with too many LBs.
19. New York Giants: Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
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With William Beatty having a shaky season at LT for the G-Men, they may look to sure up that position in the draft.
Castonzo has the perfect body and skill set to be a dominate tackle in the league.
He dominated in the ACC and earned All-ACC honors.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Giants may have to move up a couple slots to make sure they get their man. They may have to give up a second- or third-rounder.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
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Tampa Bay will be looking for any pick that will help their defense out.
Watt had a great Rose Bowl game against TCU and showed off how dominant he can be on the line.
Worst-Case Scenario: Watt does not fit into a 4-3 scheme well. He will go through growing pains.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Corey Liuget, Illinois
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Tyson Jackson, Glen Dorsey and Corey Liuget. That should be a great defensive line for years to come.
The Chiefs struggled with stopping the run last season and Liuget should fill up the middle along with Dorsey.
Worst-Case Scenario: Liuget gets taken earlier, possibly by San Diego. KC reaches for the next DT in Phil Taylor.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Rahim Moore, UCLA
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With the recent release of Bob Sanders, the Colts have a gaping hole in their secondary.
Moore might be a reach this high, but they need someone to replace Sanders.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Colts pass up on getting the next OL on the board in Derek Sherrod. LT becomes a glaring weakness for the Colts next season.
23. Philadelphia Ealges: Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State
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The Eagles have to address their OL or their secondary with their first pick this year.
Both are very big needs, but I think OL is the bigger need. The Eagles could grab a CB in free agency.
Worst-Case Scenario: Sherrod and the rest of the first-round O-linemen are gone. The Eagles have to trade down and select Aaron Williams from Texas or draft a second-round OL talent.
24. New Orleans Saints: Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
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Although the Saints do not have many glaring holes to fill in their lineup, they could use another pass rusher to get to the QB.
If Clayborn drops this far, it will be a steal for the Saints.
Worst-Case Scenario: With Clayborn gone, the Saints select Ryan Kerrigan.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
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Seattle, even though they are in the terrible NFC West, has to somewhat rebuild.
Matt Hasselbeck will not be around for much longer and the Seahawks are going to need a QB to build their team around.
Mallet may not be a first-round talent now, but he has shown enough accuracy to be a starter in the NFL.
Worst-Case Scenario: Hasselbeck comes back for another year and impresses. Mallett is left waiting on the bench for over two years.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Jimmy Smith, Colordao
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Baltimore needs help in their aging secondary, as seen last year.
Baltimore would love to take Smith here. He will be a shutdown corner.
Worst-Case Scenario: All the CBs are taken, and the Ravens have to settle for Marcus Cannon of TCU.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Justin Houston, Georgia
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Atlanta needs another pass rusher to complement John Abraham.
Houston would be the perfect guy to do so. He can fill both the DE and OLB positions that the Falcons need.
Worst-Case Scenario: Houston is a little undersized and does not pan out in the NFL. Atlanta is still without another pass rusher.
28. New England Patriots: Mike Pouncey, Florida
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After addressing the DL with their first pick, I see the Patriots looking to take care of their needs on the OL.
With all the talk and comparisons to his brother, Pouncey would be a great pick for NE here. Pouncey may be the best OG in the draft.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Patriots draft for depth instead and select Brandon Harris out of Miami.
29. Chicago Bears: Ben Ijalana, Villanova
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The Bears offensive line was terrible last year. They have to draft a couple of OL to sure up that position.
Ijalana is a small-school talent with NFL skills.
He has tremendous size and strength, along with very good footwork and quickness required for a great offensive lineman.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Bears select anyone besides an OL.
30. New York Jets: Stephen Paea, Oregon State
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The Jets can no longer rely on Kris Jenkins to be healthy for an entire season.
They need an eventual replacement for the aging DT. Paea would fit that role.
He would provide depth for a year or two, then step in and become the starter.
Worst-Case Scenario: Paea is taken earlier and the Jets have to settle with combo lineman Muhammad Wilkerson from Temple.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
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DE is not a pivotal need for Pittsburgh, but if Kerrigan drops this far, they should jump on him.
The Steelers would have liked to get a CB or a OT here, but all the first-round talent is gone.
Worst-Case Scenario: This is the worst-case scenario for Pittsburgh, settling for a value pick instead of a need pick.
32. Green Bay Packers: Aldon Smith, Missouri
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Another player who I have dropping is Aldon Smith. Not sure if he falls this far, but the Packers would love it if he did.
They need another LB to rush opposite Clay Matthews.
Smith is also decent in coverage, mostly because of his athleticism and his speed.
Worst-Case Scenario: Smith is taken way higher. Green Bay is drafts a DE (Cameron Heyward) or RB (Mike Leshoure).
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