2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 48: Why Cole Hamels Is the Most Underrated Pitcher
Ourย 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5ร5 H2H settings.
Since 2007, only eight pitchers with at least 800 inningsย have an ERA lower than Cole Hamelsโ mark of 3.44. Of those eight pitchers, only Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren have a strikeout rate higher than Hamelsโ 8.32 K/9. Further, only Halladay and Haren have a walk rate lower than Hamelsโ 2.21 BB/9.
Hamelsโ 2009 campaign (4.32 ERA) apparently erased the memories of his sparkling 3.39 and 3.09 ERAs in the two years before, not to mention his World Series MVP performance in 2008.
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After reminding fantasy managers of his brilliance with a 3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.10 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9 in 2010, observers have still been slow to notice.
Yahoo! compositeย ranks Hamels as the 14th best pitcher in 2011, while heโs being drafted as the 15th best pitcher according to Mock Draft Centralโs ADP. In all reality, Hamels makes a strong case as a top-10 pitcher.
Last year, Hamels ranked among the leagueโs best in pitching statistics that indicate true swing-and-miss stuff:
- Contact rate: 74.8 percent (second)
- Swinging strike rate: 11.9 percent (second)
- Strikeout rate: 9.10 (10th)
If thatโs not enough to convince you ofย his dominance, consider this: Hamels posted a ridiculous 2.23 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.69 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9 in the second half last year.
Entering his age-27 season, Hamels is clearly the best No. 4 starter in the majors. Matchups against the likes of Jair Jurrjens, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Young and Jason Marquis will favor Hamels, allowing him the opportunity to post a career-high in wins this season.
| ย | IP | W | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | WHIP |
| 2010 Stats | 208.2 | 12 | 9.10 | 2.63 | 3.06 | 1.18 |
| Three-Year Average | 210 | 12 | 8.22 | 2.24 | 3.46 | 1.18 |
| 2011 FBI Forecast | 214 | 17 | 8.60 | 2.30 | 3.20 | 1.18 |
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
Fantasy Baseball Insidersโ 2011 Big Board:
- Nos. 1-10:ย Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
- Nos. 11-20:ย Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
- Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
- Nos. 31-40: Heyward, Upton or McCutchen?
- No. 41: Clayton Kershaw
- No. 42: Alex Rios
- No. 43: Brian McCann
- No. 44: Drew Stubbs
- No. 45: Ichiro Suzuki
- No. 46: Andre Ethier
- No. 47: Martin Prado
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:
Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- Guerreroย to Baltimore: Why Heโs Betterย Off inย Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
- The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
- 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
- 2011 Closerโs Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options
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