2011 Buffalo Bills: Dissecting the Bills' Pourous Run Defense
There was an interesting article written by Sean McCormick of Football Outsiders that was run on ESPN recently. The article broke down many different aspects of NFL rush defenses and it was very revealing about the numerous problems that the Bills are facing in trying to shore up this glaring area of need.
The link to the story is here. McCormick writes for Football Outsiders and their analysis was as thorough as any I have seen regarding rush defenses. A link to their charts is here.
When you start to go up and down these various areas, it is obvious that the Bills have to address the line of scrimmage first and foremost. It is all well and good to think about landing a franchise quarterback, but until the Bills can physically start to win at the line of scrimmage with more regularity, they will continue to be run out of the stadium by more physical teams.
Bills Need Greater Penetration At Line Of Scrimmage
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On average, NFL defenses are stuffing running plays 19 percent of the time. A stuffed run play means that the running back was tackled either at the line of scrimmage or in the backfield. The Bills run defense was last in this category, coming in at 32 in the NFL, with only 13 percent.
Kyle Williams, the Bills Pro-Bowl nose tackle, can't do it alone. He needs help from fellow lineman Dwan Edwards, Marcus Stroud, Terrell Troup, Spencer Johnson, Alex Carrington and whomever the Bills draft.
With the strong defensive linemen available in the draft, it is unfathomable for the Bills not to draft at least one of the linemen, if not two. Guys like Marcel Dareus from Alabama, Cameron Haywood form Ohio State and Phil Taylor from Baylor are all examples of athletic types that can blow up running plays.
It Is Not All The Front Seven's Fault
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The Football Outsiders analysts continues on to look at the second level defense. Once you get past the front seven, how many yards are gained before the secondary comes up to make a stop? Well, for the Bills the answer isn't pretty. Out of the 32 teams, the Bills ranked 31st.
Granted Donte Whitner made more tackles this year than he ever did before. If they are eight to 10 yards down the field, it is just too much real estate to be giving up on a consistent basis. The Bills need to find a way to allow the secondary to come up and help out in run support sooner than they do, without giving up the long play via a play fake. Therein lies the rub.
When the Bills are looking to add secondary help with all of their potential free agency vacancies, I hope they will be addressing physical players in addition to pass coverage skills.
The Bills Front Seven: Get More Physical and Have a Chip On Your Shoulder
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When analyzing the Bills front seven, the Football Outsiders looked at Adjusted Line Yards, which is one of their more complicated formulas. Once again, the Bills came in ranked at dead last.
Not to beat a dead horse, but any way that you cut it, the Bills simply have to be bigger, stronger and meaner at the line of scrimmage. If that fits the description of anyone coming up in the draft, then there you go.
The front seven has to develop more of a mean streak and come in with a chip on their shoulder. You look at the way that the Baltimore Ravens defense carries themselves in games. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense is another example.
The Bills need to demonstrate that they can't be run on. Part of it is mental and part of it is physical, but bottom line is that this unit has to come together as a group and make a statement.
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Open Field Tackling Is Actually Better Than Average
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One of the results of the Football Outsiders analysis that I found interesting was that the Bills are actually better than most NFL defenses at tackling in the open field. Out of all NFL teams, the Bills ranked 13th in the league. I guess that if you get enough practice at it, you start to get good at it after awhile.
Open field tackling would be a compliment to the Bills secondary, who by all accounts are generally thought to be solid tacklers in the open field. That doesn't take in to account how far down the field the ball carrier has already progressed, just that they made the tackle when they had the opportunity.
Rush Defense Has Issues Across The Line
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Another interesting thing that Football Outsiders did was to break down all of the rushes according to what area of the line the running play went through. Each area of the line was broken down and graded. Brace yourself, Bills fans.
Running at the left end (Bills right side of defense—Reggie Torbor side) - Bills ranked 26th
Running at left tackle - (Marcus Stroud area) Bills ranked 29th
Running at middle guard (Kyle Williams/Torrell Troup area) - Bills ranked 32nd
Running at right tackle (Dwan Edwards area) Bills ranked 17th
Running at right end (Chris Kelsay area) Bills ranked 32nd
This just goes to further illustrate how wide the Bills problems really are. The Bills have to be able to neutralize the line of scrimmage, and set the edge better than they do now. If the current personnel are not able to do the job, then get better people that can. It all starts with the third overall pick in the draft.
Who Will Be Back From The Front Seven?
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The Bills front seven in 2011 will not be the same as it was in 2010. The Bills began 2010 with a defensive line of Marcus Stroud, Kyle Williams and Dwan Edwards. During the course of the season, Torell Troup was brought in to fortify the line and Alex Carrington and Spencer Johnson were given their share of snaps to relieve the starters.
The linebackers included Akin Ayodele, Paul Posluszny, Andra Davis and Chris Kelsay. Reggie Torbor started and got hurt, as did Andra Davis. Towards the end of the season Arthur Moats stepped up to take on a bigger role on defense.
Since then, the Bills have signed Shawne Merriman to a two year deal. They have not done anything yet with their unrestricted free agents in Paul Posluszny, Donte Whitner, George Wilson, Akin Ayodele, Keith Ellison, Donte Whitner and Drayton Florence.
There is talk that Marcus Stroud may have regressed enough to not be back, and many speculate that Aaron Maybin is so far behind where he should have been by now, that he might not be back either.
From the linebackers, it will be interesting to see if both Ayodele and Torbor are back. It seems like the Bills want to bring Posluszny back, so you would have Poz, Davis, Kelsay. Moats, Danny Batten and Shawne Merriman signed to contracts. That is okay for a starting point, but you still need more and the depth is still weak there.
As much as the NFL is about quarterbacks and passing the ball up and down the field, the Bills defense convincingly proved that if you can't stop the run, there is no need to worry about throwing the ball.
Combines Begin In Ten Days
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Just as Torell Troup impressed the Bills last year, the scouting combines offer teams a chance to test out the defensive lineman in a number of ways—speed, power, agility and all of the interviews as well.
There really are a plethora of great linemen available, so figure to see several added to the Bills roster over the first four rounds. Curious to see if any of them were from the Senior Bowl, where the Bills coaches had such a close look at the players involved.
The Bills scouts have already lined up who they want to interview at the combines. You can be sure that of their allotted interviews, they are talking to players that are thought to be premier run stuffers. They have to have more of them than they do now.
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