MLB Predictions: 8 Reasons Why the Baltimore Orioles Will Surprise You in 2011

Charlie HerrmannJun 7, 2018

Yeah, I've heard it on many occasions. And it's true, the Baltimore Orioles have been truly awful as of late.

But when you take a look at their off-season activity and what talent they've added, you might wanna consider the possibility that the Orioles could have a strong team this year.

I'm not going to go as far as to say they can hold their own against the likes of teams like the Yankees or the newly-beefed up Red Sox, but they have a strong chance of making a significant improvement from the years past.

Here's why...

J.J. Hardy

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Acquired in December 2010 from the Minnesota Twins, former All-Star short-stop J.J. Hardy makes the Orioles infield a heck of a lot better.

In spite of missing 51 games with a wrist injury, Hardy still managed to hit .268 in 375 Plate Appearances, a .038 improvement over the 2010 O's short-stop Cesar Izturis (.250, 513). Izturis's fielding stats are slightly better (Hardy- .976 FLD% and 11 E in 2010, Izturis- .985 FLD% and 9 E in 2010), but when you think about how much of a better bat Hardy brings to the table, there's a fair improvement.

Consider this...

If Hardy were to ever improve back to his former All-Star self, he'd make Izturis look worse than most people already think he is. Even in his All-Star season he doesn't match up to the likes of J.J. Hardy. In Hardy's 2007 All-Star year, he hit .277, with 26 HR and 80 RBI. In Izturis's 2005 All-Star year, he hit .257, with 2 HR and 31 RBI. For those of you keeping track at home, that's a .020 BA, 24 HR and 49 RBI difference between the two in peak performance. I'd take that any day.

Hardy is kind of a "high risk, high reward" player, but the high reward beats anything Cesar Izturis can do for you. Keep an eye out for him in 2011.

Kevin Gregg

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Signed in January 2011, closer Kevin Gregg (Toronto) has made the team better without even stepping on the field.

In his 2010 year with the AL East competitors known as the Toronto Blue Jays, Gregg set a career number of saves with 37, while posting a 3.51 ERA. Hitters had their struggles against Gregg, hitting only .237 against him.

Consider this...

If he can throw at or around the same number of saves, that helps the O's a lot. He recorded 37 saves in Toronto. That's 2 more saves than the 6 pitchers who recorded a save for the O's in 2010 (pretty sad, eh?). Gregg's ERA of 3.51 is also better than the combine ERA of the 6 Baltimore pitchers who recorded a save last year (4.16 ERA).

And I know what you're gonna say, "Well, you have to get to Kevin Gregg first.", which is a fair statement considering the weak bullpen of the Orioles. But if the situation of a save were to ever arise, Gregg would be all over it.

Buck Showalter

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Making his debut as manager on August 3, 2010, Buck Showalter made the Orioles look like winners the second half of the season.

The 2-time AL Manager of the Year made an immediate impact on the club. Taking the reigns of the league's worst record of 32-73, he went 34-23 with the O's, better than any AL East team in that stretch of time.

Showalter has a track record of making losing teams improve, as shown by his tenure with the Texas Rangers. During his first year in 2003, he only put up a 71-91 record. However, in 2004, without the help of the then reigning AL MVP Alex Rodriguez, Buck and the Rangers posted a 89-73 record, finishing 3rd in the AL West. He won AL Manager of the Year that year. He even had success as manager of the New York Yankees, which doesn't hurt.

If Baltimore can rally around Buck Showalter, they could put up a better record than the forgettable 66-99 record they earned last year.

Vladimir Guerrero

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Acquired in February 2011, DH Vladimir Guerrero (Texas) added a good right-handed bat into the Orioles lineup.

Given that he is a 9-time All-Star and 2004 AL MVP, "Vladdy" has proven that he is one of the great players of his time. Being a very key part to the team's overall success, he put up great numbers last year with the AL Champion Texas Rangers with a .300 BA, with 29 HR and 115 RBI.

Putting up 25+ HR in 12 out of his 15 season in the big leauges, Guerrero is a legitimate bat in the lineup. He's guaranteed to produce in any lineup you put him in, seeing as he swings at everything and has never struck-out more than 95 times in any given season.

Consider this...

Not saying that the Orioles didn't have a good DH in Luke Scott, but Guerrero is somewhat of a step up for them. Scott hit .284 with 27 HR and 72 RBI in 2010. If my math is correct, Vlad gives them an increase of .026 BA points, 2 HR and 43 RBI. Run production from the DH spot is very important to a team's success.

With Vladimir Guerrero's power in a very hitter-friendly ballpark in Camden Yards, look for Vladimir Guerrero to help out this team a lot.

Mark Reynolds

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Acquired in December 2010 via trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks, third-basemen Mark Reynolds adds a huge right-handed bat the the Orioles line-up.

Reynolds put up great power numbers, recording 32 HR and driving in 85 RBI. His only real issue is striking out, which he does far too much. In 2010, he only posted a horrible .198 BA. In 499 AB, he struck out 211 times. That's once per every 2.4 AB, virtually half of the time. Due to those awful numbers, he was only worth 0.8 WAR. There are reserves that have a higher WAR than Reynolds did in 2010. However, there are upsides to this.

Consider this...

He's going to put up better power numbers drive in more runs than the other Orioles who played third base last season. The two players who predominately played third base last year, Miguel Tejada and Josh Bell together only hit 9 HR and 51 RBI, with a combine .242 BA. Yeah, the batting average is much better than that of Reynolds, but the 23 HR and 34 RBI improvement is always a good thing. Plus if you keep in mind that Camden Yards is no match for the great power of Reynolds, expect him to put up crazy HR totals.

If the O's hitting coach can work on that striking out problem, Mark Reynolds could greatly impact on the 2011 Baltimore Orioles lineup.

Derrek Lee

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Signed in December 2010, 3-time Gold Glove award winning first-baseman Derrek Lee (Chicago/Atlanta) adds a steady right-handed bat and great glove in the field.

In 2010, between playing with the Chicago Cubs and the Atlanta Braves, Lee hit .269, with 19 HR and 80 RBI. He's also been known to have great fielding ability, with a career .994 fielding % and 3 NL Gold Glove awards.

Consider this...

He and the lone 2010 All-Star from the Orioles, first-baseman Ty Wigginton are fairly similar players. Wigginton's 22 HR and 76 RBI are close to the statistics Lee posted last year. Though his .248 BA is .021 points lower than Lee's. And his lifetime fielding % as a first-baseman of just .003 points lower than Lee's. They're pretty much the same player, only Lee has a slightly higher batting average.

Look for Lee to make some great defensive plays and replace Wigginton with a very similar bat.

Brian Matusz with run support

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While he isn't a new acquisition, starting pitcher Brian Matusz could potentially have a stellar year in his second full year in the big leagues.

A highly regarded prospect, the Baltimore Orioles selected Matusz with the 4th overall pick in the 2008 Major League Baseball Draft. He tore up at the minor league level, quickly reaching the O's in August 2009. In his first years in the majors in 2010, he posted a 10-12 record with a 4.30 ERA and 143 strikeouts.

Consider this...

While those numbers don't seem too impressive, you have to think about how little run support he's had in the past. The Baltimore Orioles aren't exactly the best team to pitch for. Matusz's WAR is 3.1, a team best for pitchers, and 3rd on the team overall behind Nick Markakis and Luke Scott. Without Matusz, the O's are even more of an awful than they already are from a pitching stand point. With the additions of Guerrero, Reynolds and Hardy, along with the talent already in Baltimore, Matusz should put up greater numbers with the good amount of run support he should have.

Look for Brian Matusz to post a great record and increase in wins in 2011.

Newly Acquired Right-Handed Power in Camden Yards

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The biggest reason the 2011 Baltimore Orioles will do better than expected next year: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, perhaps one of the best hitter's parks in the game.

With the right-handed power they have in Vladimir Guerrero, Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee and Adam Jones, the O's should have stellar power numbers in 2011.

The park itself is very small. It's only 318 feet to right field, 373 feet to right-center and 400 feet to dead center. Those dimensions make for a great venue for right-handed power hitters.

In the last 3 years, Guerrero, Reynolds, Lee and Jones have combine for 296 HR, 1,017 RBI and a .475 slugging %, and those are just 4 out of the 9 players in the O's lineup.

Reynolds has recorded 104 HR, 284 RBI and .481 slugging % predominately hitting in a pitcher-friendly park in Chase Field. Imagine what he could do in Camden Yards as his stomping grounds.

The shallow outfield walls and the credentials of the four players mentioned should make for amazing power numbers and lots of run support in 2011.