2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 38: Ian Kinsler: Elite Asset or High-Risk Tease?

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

When evaluating Ian Kinsler, it’s important to understand how good he is, and how disappointing he’s been.

In 2009, Kinsler posted just the fifth 30/30 season among second basemen since 2000. Unfortunately, it came with a career-low .253 batting average in a career-high 144 games.

In 2010, Kinsler managed just nine home runs and 15 steals in only 103 games (due to leg and ankle injuries), though his batting averaged jumped to .283.

So what should we expect in 2011?

Well, at least one DL stint. Other than that, it’s tough to say. Rangers manager Ron Washington has hinted at positioning Kinsler in the leadoff spot this season, something he did for most of the 2008 and 2009 seasons. This would likely aid his run-scoring and stolen base totals, but might change his approach at the plate.

Either way, Kinsler has top-10 potential.

In fact, when comparing three-year averages to players at his position with similar power/speed skills, Kinsler matches up quite well:

• Chase Utley: 143 G, 635 PA, 100 R, 27 HR, 87 RBI, 17 SB, .284 BA
• Dustin Pedroia: 129 G, 597 PA, 95 R, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 16 SB, .307 BA
• Ian Kinsler: 123 G, 561 PA, 92 R, 19 HR, 67 RBI, 24 SB, .285 BA

Heck, if Kinsler had played in as many games as Utley over the last three seasons, he might be considered the top second baseman heading into 2011. Instead, he’s fifth among two-baggers, No. 38 overall.

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2010 stats	460	73	9	45	15	.286
3-year average	561	92	19	67	24	.285
2011 FBI Forecast	590	90	18	75	25	.281

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• No. 31: Joe Mauer
• No. 32: Victor Martinez
• No. 33: Cliff Lee
• No. 34: Nelson Cruz
• No. 35: Jason Heyward
• No. 36: Justin Upton
• No. 37: Josh Johnson

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options