Fantasy Baseball Draft-Day Dilemma: Is Rafael Furcal a Viable Starting SS?
Rafael Furcal opened the 2010 season on fire, hitting .333 with 51 R in 243 AB prior to the All-Star Break.ย
Of course, as a consistent theme over the past few years, Furcal was limited to just 26 AB in May. Matters got even worse after the break, with just 140 AB including only seven in August.ย
Injuries to his lower back and hamstring were the issues in 2010 and, considering his speed is one of his biggest assets, you have to be concerned.
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While he was able to have 613 AB in 2009 (though they were subpar at .269 with just 12 SB), he is two years removed from being limited to 36 games in 2008. In fact, in 2008 & 2009 he totaled just 20 SB, so seeing him post 22 in 26 attempts in 2010 has to bring a little bit of a smile to your face.
Still, constantly missing time due to injury is a huge concern. If he canโt stay on the field, what value does he actually hold to your fantasy squad?
Assuming he stays healthy, he is going to bring speed. He showed that in 2010, even after the injuries limited him. In 140 AB in the second half, he stole eight bases in nine attempts, including going a perfect four-for-four in September.ย
He also should be able to score plenty of runs, given his speed and the lineup hitting behind him. While Matt Kemp struggled in 2010, we all can safely expect a rebound from him. Couple him with Andre Ethier, Juan Uribe and company, if Furcal can get on base, he is going to be rounding the bases quite frequently.
He is a career .286 hitter, though he hasnโt been up to that level in two of the past four seasons:
- 2007 โ .270 (581 AB)
- 2008 โ .357 (143 AB)
- 2009 โ .269 (613 AB)
- 2010 โ .300 (383 AB)
So, where should we actually expect him to be? In his โpoorโ seasons, he had BABIP of .296 and .302, respectively. While we want to think that with his speed he should maintain a higher mark, his career BABIP is just .317.ย
To reach last seasonโs .300 average, he had to hit to the tune of a lucky .338 BABIP.
The fact of the matter is that Furcal is just as likely to hit right around .270 as he is to hit .300. Heโll likely fall somewhere in the .280 range, which is fine, but itโs nothing to get us overly excited about.
Add that type of average to a run of the mill 9.0% career walk rate, and it is not like he is an on base machine. He has a career .351 OBP, though in his two full seasons in recent years (2007 & 2009) he was at .333 and .335.ย
Furcal will score some runs hitting atop the lineup, but even if he was to stay healthy, heโs far from a lock to reach triple digits.
Throw in single-digit home run power (his high over the past four years is nine), and there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical.
Itโs tough to draft Furcal as your starting SS simply knowing how injury prone he has been in recent years. While he does bring some upside in the speed department, at 33 years old and given his injury history, even that is far from a lock.ย
He should be a decent option, and one that I wouldnโt mind having as my middle infielder, but as my starting shortstop Iโd rather take a player that I feel more confident will play.
However, using Furcal as a security option for a Starlin Castro or Ian Desmond would be a perfect scenario. If Furcal is healthy and hot you donโt mind using him in your starting lineup, but you have an even better option if heโs struggling.
What are your thoughts on Furcal? Is he someone you wouldnโt mind starting?ย What type of numbers are you expecting from him in 2011?
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Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:
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