MLB Prediction: Why The Giants Lineup Will Sabotage Their Quest for a Repeat
Dear Giants Fans,
Congratulations, the Giants won the 2010 World Series. They narrowly edged out the Padres in the final series of the season and rode the momentum to a World Series Championship. Nobody can deny the Giants were the best baseball team during the 2010 postseason. They have the hardware to prove it. Now let’s come back to reality and understand why the Giants are not favorites to repeat in 2011.
I am going to break down the Giants lineup position by position. I will show why the Giants will be hard pressed to field a lineup capable of producing a World Series Champion in 2011.
Catcher
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Buster Posey- .305/.357/.505
Posey is a stud. He came up last season in the middle of a pennant race and performed like a seasoned pro. He was outstanding behind the plate calling games. He batted in the middle of the order and posted some very impressive numbers. Posey’s numbers are likely to regress some during his second season as pitchers’ make adjustments to him but Posey should still post all star caliber numbers anyway. Also, whatever regression Posey suffers offensively will be offset by improved defense as he adjusts further to catching the Giants big league staff. Posey looks like he will be a cog in the Giants middle of the order for years to come.
First Base
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Aubrey Huff- .290/.385/.506
Huff was outstanding last year. He posted the best numbers of his career. Compiling a stellar slash line and a WAR of 5.9. He was also 33 years old last year. His next highest WAR total was 3.9 back in 2004. In fact in 2009 Huff posted a WAR of -1.4. In 8 of his 11 seasons Huff has been considered average or below average according to WAR. Entering his age 34 season it is highly unlikely Huff will post numbers close to his 2010 numbers.
Second Base
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Freddy Sanchez- .292/.342/.397
Freddy Sanchez had a WAR of 1.5 in 2010. Which is considered below average. Assuming that an average player should post a WAR of 2.0. I don’t think many people (besides Giants fans) would argue Sanchez is much more than a below average to average second baseman. He hits for a good average but he does not walk much which drags down his OBP. He does not have a high enough slugging percentage to compensate for these deficiencies. Sanchez does play a solid second base. He posted a UZR of 5.1 last season. However, his defense is not strong enough to balance out his weak offense. Sanchez is your typical average/below average number 8 hole hitter.
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Shortstop
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Miguel Tejada- .269/.312/.381
I think one look at Tejada’s numbers has caused many people to question his signing. Tejada posted an OPS of .693 last season. Tejada will be 37 this season. His defense, UZR 0.1 in 2010, was questionable at best. Tejada’s value lies in his bat which hit a wall last season. Tejada posted a WAR of 1.4 in 2010 which is well below average. Using a 37 year old who is clearly on the decline to plug a hole at a premium position is a huge risk. The Giants front office is taking a chance and hoping Tejada can rebound in 2011. However, age is not on his side.
Third Base
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Pablo Sandoval- .268/.323/.409
Sandoval was pegged to have a breakout season in 2010. His 2010 season was far from a breakout. He showed up to spring training overweight and never caught up. The potential is there, as seen in 2009. The question is whether or not Sandoval can put it all together on a consistent basis. It remains to be seen if Sandoval will show up to spring training in shape and ready to put the 2010 season behind him. Sandoval remains a huge X factor for the Giants this coming season. It will be interesting to see if losing his starting job in the postseason will motivate him or not. Bill James is projecting Sandoval will hit .305 with 18 HR and 71 RBI. I think all Giants fans will be pleased if he matches James’ projection.
Left Field
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Cody Ross- .269/.322/.413
Ross posted a 1.0 WAR between Florida and San Fran last season. In 2008 Cody Ross posted a 2.3 WAR which is slightly above average. In 2009 he posted a 1.5 WAR which is slightly below average. Since he has become an everyday player Ross has been an average outfielder. He gained a lot of fans after his amazing postseason performance. Fans are overlooking the fact it is highly unlikely for Ross to post numbers like he did in the postseason over the course of an entire season. Most likely Ross will post numbers in line with his career averages which show Ross is nothing more than a mediocre outfielder. Fans may soon regret jumping on Ross' bandwagon when they see him starting in left field for an entire season.
Center Field
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Andres Torres- .268/.343/.479
Torres has a breakout year in 2010. The only problem is he was 32 years old. He was basically a career minor leaguer before the Giants signed him in 2009. Sure he could be a late bloomer. There could also be a reason he did not become a starter until he was 32. What I am trying to say is time is not on his side. His offensive numbers will likely decline but his defensive numbers still will allow him to be a competent center fielder. Torres was the biggest surprise for the Giants in 2010. Yes, even bigger than Bumgarner and Posey. Bumgarner and Posey were top prospects before being called up. Torres has never produced numbers like he did in 2010 at any level during his major league career. This is why most analysts do not believe Torres will repeat his 2010 performance in 2011.
Right Field
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Mark DeRosa- Missed the majority of 2010
DeRosa is penciled in to play right field opening day. He is as much of an enigma as Sandoval going into this season. He is coming off a season cut short by injury and will be 36 years old when the season begins. I think DeRosa is better used in a super utility role at this point in his career. The more rest he receives the better. DeRosa will most likely be moved into the utility role if he struggles in the beginning of the year.
Conclusion
9 of 9After looking at the Giants projected lineup it is not hard see why most analysts are looking elsewhere for their 2011 World Series Champion. The Giants are a team comprised of a very good catcher combined with several average to below average players. The 2010 Giants lineup greatly overachieved especially in the postseason. The likelihood of these same players overachieving again in 2011 is very slim. Most likely they will perform at or near their career averages and the Giants will be left with a mediocre offense once again. Hey, anything can happen but the future does not look bright for this lineup.
Look for my analysis of the Giants Pitching Staff and Bullpen in the near future.
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