2011 NFL Mock Draft: Nick Fairley, Blaine Gabbert and a Preview of First Round
Now that the season is done, the NFL Draft becomes even more significant.
A lot has changed since I did my last predictions. Most believe now that Missouri's Blaine Gabbert will be the first quarterback taken. Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller, who's remained a first round pick since the beginning, had such a good Senior Bowl that he could now find himself in the top 10. Jake Locker, on the other hand, has seen his stock drop and may no longer be a top 12 pick.
What's also intriguing is to watch some players make late surges and become first round picks.
Colorado offensive lineman Nate Solder is now a lock on most lists, and his teammate - cornerback Jimmy Smith - is starting to appear in the first round of some draft lists. Scouts Inc. even has Smith listed as the 10th best player overall in the draft.
You'll see a lot of familiar faces in similar spots from before. A few I've switched up. In some cases, it's simply reassessing where they'd be a better fit for the right team.
Keep sending me your comments. I enjoy the exchanges. Keep in mind, too: A lot of times teams have multiple needs, so you could take a variety of approaches.
Here's the first round:
1. Carolina: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
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The Panthers have so many needs here.
You could make a serious case that they could also go with Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green, but keep in mind the Panthers will probably be back in the lottery next year and they could also have a likely shot then with Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon or Ryan Broyles from Oklahoma. Defensive tackles like Fairley are hard to come by.
The All-American, Lombardi Award winner and Southeastern Conference Player of the Year played in 14 games, finishing with 60 total tackles (36 solo), a school-record 24 tackles for loss (106 yards), 11.5 sacks for 74 yards and 21 quarterback hurries.
2. Denver: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
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If there are three must-haves that teams are built around, it's usually a franchise quarterback, a talented offensive tackle to protect his blind side and a shutdown corner. Peterson is just that.
In 13 games, he had 42 total tackles, four interceptions (for 134 yards), six pass breakups and 10 pass deflections. He also had one quarterback hurry and one blocked kick.
3. Buffalo: DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
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Bowers is a top four pick, but figuring out which team he'll land with is a challenge.
While they could elect to go with Green, getting Bowers could at least help them in the division next year when they need a true pass rush against Tom Brady and Mark Sanchez. Bowers was second on the team in tackles (63), had a team-high 24 tackles for loss (150 yards), 15.5 sacks and 17 quarterback pressures.
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4. Cincinnati: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
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I could easily see the Bengals giving Carson Palmer his wish, shipping him off, getting draft picks, then finding his replacement. This year, he completed 301-of-475 passes for 3,186 yards (63.4 percent), with nine interceptions and 16 touchdowns.
5. Arizona: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M
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Something tells me the Cardinals will get a quarterback in free agency (I'll go with Kevin Kolb, then Donovan McNabb as their top two choices), which will make Larry Fitzgerald happy.
That frees them up to then draft to need, and improving their pass rush is a must. That's where Miller comes in.
In 13 games, he had 68 total tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss (101 yards), 10.5 sacks (81 yards), one interception, six passes broken up, seven pass deflections, six quarterback hurries and two fumble recoveries.
6. Cleveland: WR A.J. Green, Georgia
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Makes perfect sense. The Browns continue to build for the future and now give Colt McCoy a bigtime playmaker. Green finished the year with 57 catches for 848 yards (14.9 average) and nine touchdowns.
7. San Francisco: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
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Here's a question about the 49ers: If they elect to not take a quarterback in the draft, does Jim Harbaugh go after Carson Palmer instead? Food for thought. This would be a smart pick, though. In 11 games, Dareus had 34 tackles, 11 tackles for loss (41 yards), 4.5 sacks (26 yards), four passes broken up, four pass deflections and 10 quarterback hurries.
8. Tennessee Titans: QB Cam Newton, Auburn
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The Vince Young experiment failed, but now Bud Adams will take another shot at a dual threat quarterback and go with the Heisman Trophy winner. I don't see him playing in Year 1, so I bet they also go out and get a veteran in free agency who can groom him and still help them win games.
Newton helped lead Auburn to a perfect 14-0 record and the BCS National Championship. He rushed for 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns while passing for 2,854 yards and 30 scores.
9. Dallas: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
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Their secondary is atrocious: Dallas tied for the league lead in touchdown passes allowed (33) and gave up 243 yards passing per game during the regular season last year.
This would be a major upgrade, and some believe Prince is pro ready. In 14 games this year, he had 59 total tackles, one tackle for loss, one sack and 13 passes broken up.
10. Washington: QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
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If they don't go with the Arkansas quarterback, I bet they go with a pass rushing defensive end. But Mallett fits a need, and gives the Redskins a franchise quarterback they desperately need. I know Mike Shanahan's generally preferred more mobile quarterbacks, so this make work against Mallett, who is more of a pocket passer.
It's hard to pass up someone with his kind of arm. This year he completed 266 of 411 passes, with 12 interceptions, for 3,869 yards and 32 touchdowns.
11. Houston: DE/OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina
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The Texans could use another pass rusher and help in their secondary. If you've got a freakish, athletic end, you've got to pounce on him.
Quinn (6'5", 270) was ruled permanently ineligible this year by the NCAA for violating rules relating to agent benefits received of $5,642. In 2009, Quinn was first in the ACC and 15th in the nation in tackles for loss (19) and second in the league in sacks (11)
12. Minnesota: QB Colin Kaepernick, Nevada
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The Vikings need a franchise quarterback, and I think it would be way too risky to go with Jake Locker. But I think Kaepernick would be an excellent pick. Kid is a proven winner, athletic and has a cannon for an arm.
He finished the year completing 235 of 359 passes, with eight interceptions, for 3,022 yards and 21 touchdowns. He also had 173 carries for 1,206 yards (7.0 avg.) and 20 touchdowns
13. Detroit: OT Nate Solder, Colorado
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At first, I had the Lions going with Solder's teammate Jimmy Smith (not an awful pick), but then a voice in my head said, "Hey, if they don't get Matthew Stafford some protection, he'll be like Humpty Dumpty and you're not going to put him back together next time."
Solder (6'9", 315) leaves Boulder after having a dominating career.
He played 2,540 out of a possible 2,542 plays from his sophomore through senior years. In that span, there were a total of 1,400 pass plays called, and Solder allowed just five sacks over a three-year span.
He also had 21 pressures, meaning the other man he blocked influenced a pass play 26 times in those 1,400 plays
14. St. Louis: WR Julio Jones, Alabama
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If he's there, the Rams absolutely have to take him. It's a big-framed, big play, talented receiver who could be with Sam Bradford for years to come.
Jones closed out his college career with 78 catches for 1,133 yards (14.5 average) and seven touchdowns. He had 221 yards against Tennessee and 199 in the Iron Bowl against Auburn.
15. Miami: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
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If I'm the Dolphins, this is a smart pick and then what I'd do with the next pick would be perceived as ridiculous, but I think it would be brilliant to grab TCU quarterback Andy Dalton.
Let's focus on Ingram for the moment: The former Heisman Trophy winner still led the Crimson Tide this year in carries (158), rushing yards (875) and rushing touchdowns (13).
He'll give the Dolphins a reliable runner who has both speed and power.
16. Jacksonville: CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado
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Don't be shocked if the Jaguars take a chance here on Locker, but the smarter move would be to improve that defense, which allowed 250 yards passing per game last year.
Look at Smith's numbers and you'll see why scouts are impressed: In his junior and senior seasons, Smith (6'2'', 205) allowed just 11 pass completions in man coverage, only one for a first down.
Last year, he was a first-team Big 12 selection after finishing with 70 total tackles and five passes broken up in 12 games. He finishes his career with 183 tackles.
17. New England: DE Allen Bailey, Miami
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The Patriots will have two first round picks and could take a variety of approaches, from grabbing an offensive tackle, to a big play receiver or a defensive end. I'm going with the latter.
He would give the Patriots a potential replacement for Richard Seymour. Bailey (6'4'', 285) was a two-time ACC player who started 27 games and finished his career with 103 total tackles this season and also had 12 sacks for a loss of 112 yards in his career
18. San Diego: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
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For the longest time, I had the Chargers going with Von Miller, but I've got a hunch he's not going to be around. But they still need to bulk up their pass rush and Clayborn would be a strong choice.
In 13 games last year, he had 52 tackles (19 solo), seven tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
19. New York Giants: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
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The playmaker has freakish size at 6'4'', 255 pounds and put up big numbers again with 68 tackles, 10 tackles for a loss and four sacks (13 yards). If there's one weakness he does have, it's getting to the quarterback
20. Tampa Bay: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
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The Bucs could now get a book end to be opposite Gerald McCoy on the defensive line.
In 12 games, Kerrigan had 70 tackles (50 solo), with 26 tackles for loss (111 yards), 12.5 sacks for 73 yards, one pass breakup and one pass defended.
21. Kansas City: WR Titus Young, Boise State
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After Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs really don't have another big play receiver. Their second leading catcher is tight end Tony Moeaki (556 yards), then running back Jamaal Charles (468).
Last season, Young had a team-high 71 receptions for 1,215 yards and nine touchdowns.
22. Indianapolis: OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
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Peyton Manning certainly could use better pass protection, and some of what you read out there says Carimi could step in and contribute immediately.
The 6'7'', 327-pound offensive tackle was a consensus All-American and Outland Trophy winner. Carimi, who started 13 games, was also named Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year.
23. Philadelphia: OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State
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The Eagles allowed 52 sacks this season, so it's probably wise if they improve that line a little.
Sherrod graded out at 90 percent or higher nine times as a senior, and helped Mississippi State average nearly 215 yards rushing per game, which was 16th nationally and second in the Southeastern Conference. In eight games this year, the Bulldogs rushed for over 200 yards.
24. New Orleans: DE JJ Watt, Wisconsin
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There are lots of other high-profile defensive ends in this draft, but Watt (6'6'', 292 pounds) may be the one flying under the radar in that bunch.
The junior could strengthen a very questionable Saints line. Last year, he was second on the team with 62 total tackles, plus 21 tackles for loss (91 yards), seven sacks, one interception, eight pass breakups, nine pass deflections and 10 quarterback hurries.
25. Seattle: QB Jake Locker, Washington
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It's a safe bet at this spot, since Pete Carroll saw him up close while coaching at USC.
Locker had seven 200-yard games this year, including 310 yards passing in a 32-31 victory at USC. He finished the year completing 179 of 316 passes with nine interceptions for 2,209 yards and 17 touchdowns. He also had 101 carries for 302 yards and five touchdowns.
26. Baltimore: CB Aaron Williams, Texas
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There are reports that Baltimore is looking at the possibility of drafting a corner, so this would make sense.
Williams (6'1'', 195) made 23 starts in his last 26 games. In 11 games last year, he had 46 total tackles (30 solo), five tackles for loss, one sack, 12 passes broken up and 12 passes defended.
He's a physical player who can play both the pass and run, and rarely got burned on big plays during his career with the Longhorns
27. Atlanta: WR Leonard Hankerson, Miami
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You have to wonder what would've happened if Matt Ryan had another option in that divisional round playoff loss to Green Bay this year. If Hankerson is still around, I say jump at taking him.
In 2010, Hankerson had a career-high 1,156 yards receiving and team highs in receptions (72) and touchdown catches (13).
His 13 touchdown receptions broke Michael Irvin's previous record of 11 in 1986. Hankerson also finishes as Miami's third best receiver in career touchdown catches with 22, trailing Michael Irvin (26) and Lamar Thomas (23)
28. New England: OT Tyron Smith, USC
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Nothing wrong with getting younger on the line, and giving Tom Brady another capable blocker.
He's played primarily at right offensive tackle, and helped the Trojans offense average 31 points and just over 431 total yards per game
29. Chicago: OG/C Mike Pouncey, Florida
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Any chance you can get to improve protection for Jay Cutler is a good thing.
Pouncey's a natural guard, but can also switch to center and displays great strength and athleticism.
30. New York Jets: DE Cameron Jordan, Cal
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At 6'4'', 283 pounds, Jordan's got perfect size, and he's put together a career that will have him high on many draft boards. This year, Jordan was fifth on the team with 62 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss (47 yards), 5.5 sacks (32 yards), four pass breakups, and one quarterback hurry.
31. Pittsburgh: OT Joseph Barksdale, LSU
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He's extremely athletic, is solid in pass protection and shows tremendous hand use. Barksdale has played both tackle spots, and could give an aging Steelers line some youth and depth
32. Green Bay: CB Brandon Harris, Miami
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Harris (5'11", 195) has all the tools to be a tremendous shutdown corner, as he showed during his junior year when he had 15 passes broken up and six tackles for loss.
Harris could wind up being Charles Woodson's replacement once he retires. For now, Harris needs to sit back and learn from a future hall of famer.
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