2011 Buffalo Bills: Who Will Be in the Bills Secondary?
The 2010 season is officially over. Now we can start to look ahead to 2011 and call attention to some of the specific units that the Buffalo Bills will need to address. Due to some weird timing issues, Buddy Nix will have his hands full in trying to figure out what to do about the Bills secondary for the upcoming season.
The reasons he will have his hands full comes down to a long laundry list of reasons. We will discuss these issues in this article and try to figure out what are some steps that Nix can take to assure that the Bills secondary will be an asset and not a sore negative component of the near term Bills teams.
The Bills secondary is one of the few units that saw their coach being retained from the Dick Jauron era to the Chan Gailey phase. Gailey retained George Catavolos as the secondary coach, but they were part of the new changes that defensive coordinator George Edwards implemented when he took over from former coordinator Perry Fewell. Now with Dave Wannstedt on board to work with the linebackers and help out George Edwards, the secondary is hoping to not be asked to make as many tackles as they did in 2010.
The Collective Bargaining Agreement Has Buddy Nix's Hands Tied
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NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has been trying to speed up the negotiations between the league and the NFL Players Association, to try to find a happy accord and put the new Collective Bargaining Agreement to bed. Until the new CBA is completed, Nix is not able to do any negotiating with the Bills players that saw their contract expire at the end of the season.
The other aspect is that he is allowed to do any negotiations with any other free agents of other NFL teams either. The Players Association has recently balked at the NFL's rights to extend any kind of franchise tag on free agents, since the contract has already expired. This is really turning in to a mess.
With no clear cut deal on the docket, what does Nix do with respect to all of the Bills free agents? Donte Whitner had exchanged numbers with the Bills towards the end of the 2010 season. The reaction he received was so shocking that he immediately cleaned out his locker and hasn't been heard from since.
Bills Secondary Members Free Agents
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Whenever the new CBA is completed, Buddy Nix will undoubtedly have a window of time where he is allowed to negotiate deals with his free agents. The longer the CBA contract negotiations linger, the shorter that window of time will be. So, which of the following free agents will Nix make offers to?
Unrestricted Free Agents
Safety Donte Whitner
Safety George Wilson
Corner Drayton Florence
Corner Ashton Youboty
Restricted Free Agents
Safety Jon Corto
Bills Secondary Pedigree
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Here is an overview of where the 2010 Bills secondary members went in the draft.
First round picks: Donte Whitner and Leodis McKelvin
Second round picks: Jairus Byrd, Drayton Florence and Bryan Scott.
Third round picks: Ashton Youboty
Fourth round picks: Reggie Corner and Terrence McGee.
Fifth round - Seventh round: none
Undrafted rookie free agents: George Wilson and Jon Corto
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What Kind Of Production Will the Bills Secondary Generate in 2011?
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Taking a look back at the last four seasons, shows that the Bills' secondary is very inconsistent with respect to creating turnovers. We are focusing this slide on the passing game.
2010 season - 11 interceptions, 77 passes defended and 27 sacks
2009 season - 28 interceptions, 81 passes defended and 32 sacks
2008 season - 10 interceptions, 73 passes defended and 24 sacks
2007 season - 18 interceptions, 80 passes defended and 26 sacks
Looking at these numbers the interceptions totals jump up and down worse than my mutual funds returns. It seems like the number is high, low, high, low, etc. An every other year kind of situation. Clearly, the 28 interceptions in 2009 is an outlier, an abnormal number for the unit. The number of passes defended seems to be fairly consistent from year to year, in the 73 - 81 range.
The number of sacks is interesting in that the 32 sacks in 2009 coincides with the highest number of interceptions. The more heat you generate, or greater the pass rush, the more hurried passes and the greater the chance to intercept passes. The Bills miss Aaron Schobel pretty badly. This exercise enforces my belief that the Bills need to draft a strong pass rusher in the first round. If he can help to stuff the run, all the better.
Jairus Byrd Profile
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Jairus Byrd - 5'10" 200 pounds. Two years of experience. Started 11 of 14 games as a rookie and then started 14 of 16 games in 2010.
His game drastically changed from his rookie season to his sophomore season. Went from Pro Bowl player as a rookie, where he led the team with nine interceptions, 11 passes defended and 45 tackles to a big drop off against the pass in 2010; one interception, two passes defended and 89 tackles. In addition, he recorded his first career sack, forced three fumbles that led the team, and came up with two fumble recoveries.
Byrd demonstrated a willingness to become a much more physical player against the run, and delivered some hard blows to opponents in 2010. But, at what expense? He appeared to be out of position on a number of touchdowns and was a step or two away from being able to supply help when he was needed.
His game is evolving and he is still learning. He seemed to sacrifice his ability to be in the right place at the right time on pass plays, to become more of a physical presence in helping to stop the run game. Maybe the Bills defensive coaches can find a happy medium of the two.
Byrd will undoubtedly return as one of the Bills starting safeties in 2011. Who is the other starting safety? That right now is a mystery.
Reggie Corner Profile
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Reggie Corner is a cornerback with three years experience. Corner is 5'9" and weighs 175. Corner played in all 16 games in 2010, and even started in two of them. His production was limited however. He registered 25 tackles, one sack, five passes defended and that was it. No interceptions, no forced fumbles or no fumble recoveries.
For his Bills career, Corner has played in 44 games, has started 12 times, and has 114 career tackles. He has one career sack, 18 passes defended, one career interception, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.
Corner will be back to compete for a nickel back position in 2011, but he hasn't made that great of an impact with the playing time that the Bills have provided him so far.
Jon Corto Profile
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Jon Corto is a native Western New Yorker, who has been converted from linebacker to safety. His true role is a special teams member and he continues to excel in that phase of the game. Corto now has three years of experience. He stands 6'1" and weighs 220.
He played in 11 games in 2010 and made five tackles. That was the only real statistic I was able to find about his 2010 season. For his career, Corto has played in 43 games and made one start. He has made 37 tackles, and forced one fumble. No other statistics to speak of.
Even though he is a restricted free agent, the Bills figure to bring Corto back in 2011 to continue to excel on special teams play.
Drayton Florence Profile
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Drayton Florence is a eight-year veteran of the NFL. Florence was a starting cornerback for the Bills in 2010, but he is one of the unrestricted free agents on the team. Florence is 6'0" and weighs 195. He led the Bills in interceptions in 2010 with three, and his touchdown against the Bengals helped the Bills huge second half comeback win.
In 2010, Florence started all 16 games, and came up with 58 tackles, the three interceptions, 15 passes defended, one forced fumble and two fumble recoveries. He was a physical presence in the run game and laid some people out with hard shots.
For his career, Florence has played in more NFL games than anyone in the Bills secondary, with 119 games. His 80 career starts trails only Terrence McGee. He has 391 tackles, 75 passes defended, 14 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles and 5 fumble recoveries.
I believe the Bills will attempt to bring back Florence for 2011. Not sure how long of a contract they will offer him, but as long as he continues to be serviceable, the Bills should continue to keep him on the roster and let him compete with McGee and McKelvin for a starting spot.
Terrence McGee Profile
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Terrence McGee has completed eight years in his career with the Bills. McGee is only 5'9" and 180 pounds, but he is as tough as they come. Unfortunately, his body has been slowly and surely starting to feel the affects of those eight years of wear and tear of playing in the NFL. He only appeared in nine games in 2010, and his three starts were the lowest of his career since his rookie year.
McGee has been suffering through nerve issues in his back, but he is supposed to be ready for the 2011 season. I have no problem in bringing him back to camp to see where he is at physically. But if he has lost a step since the last year he was healthy, 2009, then it may be time to wish Terrence well.
In 2010, McGee made 18 tackles and defended two passes. That was it. Pretty much a lost year. The rest of the stat categories were blank. For his career, McGee has started in in 84 of the 109 games he appeared in. The 84 starts leads the Bills secondary. McGee has 484 tackles, three sacks, 94 passes defended, and 17 career interceptions. He also has forced three fumbles and recovered four fumbles.
Depending on how his health holds up, 2011 may wind up being the last year that McGee is in a Bills uniform. Just like Bills fans are wondering if the end is near for Marcus Stroud, McGee falls in to the same area of concern.
Leodis McKelvin Profile
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Leodis McKelvin has now completed three years with the Bills. The cornerback is 5'10" and weighs 184. He started 14 games in 2010, but appeared in all of them. That was good to see, considering that he only appeared in three games in 2009 before going on to I.R. In 2010, McKelvin made 62 tackles, and defended 11 passes. He had 2 interceptions and forced one fumble.
For his career, McKelvin has started in 23 of 35 games, made 105 tackles, had 17 passes defended, made four interceptions, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery. He has no sacks. McKelvin stepped up to show some flashes of his strong kick return abilities when C.J. Spiller was hurt. McKelvin figures to be in the mix for kick return duties again, or at least somewhere in the rotation.
Regarding his cornerback play, he will be back to compete for a starting job. If the Bills bring back Florence, then one of the trio of McKelvin, McGee or Florence will have to start on the bench. Does McKelvin take the next step up in his game? He was the first cornerback drafted in his class, and I think he will improve based off the experience he gained in 2010.
Bryan Scott Profile
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Bryan Scott is one of the Bills safeties that may be asked to take more snaps in 2011, based on what happens with Donte Whitner and George Wilson negotiations. Scott has been in the NFL for eight years now. He is 6'1" and weighs 219. Scott appeared in 15 games last year and started one of them.
In 2010, Scott made 39 tackles and had a career high three sacks. He was credited with five passes defended and made two fumble recoveries. For his career, Scott has played in 111 games, and started 54 of them. He has 460 tackles, nine sacks, 30 passes defended, and five interceptions. For good measure, he has forced seven fumbles and recovered six fumbles.
While Scott will be entering his ninth season in 2011, he will be one of the guys that helps to mentor Jairus Byrd and any other safety that the Bills draft. He will be in the safety mix, but will probably not be asked to start throughout the season, due to being a little bit slower afoot. He is a versatile player and pitched in at linebacker in 2009 when the team was besieged by injuries.
Donte Whitner Profile
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Donte Whitner is one of the first round picks that the Bills have made that has not lived up to what the Bills hoped they were going to be getting. Whitner has been with the Bills for five years now. He stands 5'10" and weighs 208. He has averaged one interception for his five years in Buffalo. As a starting safety, that just doesn't cut it. Whitner has seemingly made as many predictions as any politician makes promises, but they all seem to not come to fruition.
Whitner started all 16 games in 2010. He did have an impressive 140 tackles, but in all of that action, was only credited with one forced fumble. That does seem odd, because he had as many bone crushing hits as he ever had in his career. Besides the tackles, he had half of a sack,seven passes defended, one interception, and one fumble recovery.
For his career, Whitner has started in 66 of the 69 games he played in. He has 451 tackles, one and a half sacks, 19 passes defended, five interceptions, three forced fumbles and the one recovery. If you would have told me that we would make a safety our first round selection, and that in five years he would have come up with only five interceptions, three forced fumbles, one and a half sacks, 19 passes defended and one recovery, I would gladly have hit the "pass" button and looked elsewhere.
I believe that the lack of making enough big plays, outrageous contract demands are going to spell the end of Whitner's career in Buffalo. I would be surprised if he is back in 2011.
George Wilson Profile
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George Wilson has been with the Bills for five seasons now. Wilson is a 6' tall, 212 pound converted wide receiver, who has played safety and special teams for the Bills. Wilson went undrafted out of college, and is just one more example of how the Bills have been able to take on a project and turn the player in to a useful NFL contributor.
Wilson is an unrestricted free agent, so the Bills will have to make a decision. He will be undoubtedly more affordable than Donte Whitner, but will the level of his play be enough to allow the Bills secondary to improve to Chan Gailey's level of expectations? In 2010, Wilson appeared in all 16 games, and started in two of them. He made 35 tackles, had four passes defended, two interceptions and one fumble recovery.
For his career, Wilson has appeared in 63 games and has 26 starts. He has 202 tackles, three and a half sacks, 14 passes defended, eight interceptions, one forced fumble and four fumble recoveries. He has been a strong special teams contributor as well.
In 2011 I am of the opinion that the Bills will bring George Wilson back and ask him to compete for a starting safety role with whatever players the Bills draft.
Ashton Youboty Profile
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Ashton Youboty has already been with the Bills for five years. His contract is up and he is an unrestricted free agent. Youboty is 5'11" and weighs 189. In 2010, Youboty appeared in 13 games but did not receive any starts. He made two tackles for the year and that was his only statistic for the season.
For his career, Youboty has played in 42 games and made seven career starts. He has 60 tackles to his credit, two sacks, seven passes defended, one interception and one forced fumble. Not really a major impact guy, so if his agent comes back with a big dollar figure, I suspect the Bills will pass and let him test free agency. If the dollars come back as realistic, read cheap, then that is a different story, and he will have a chance to compete for a nickel back role.
Corners That Will Be Available To the Bills iN the Draft
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Some mock drafts are showing the Bills will select Patrick Peterson, the shut-down corner from LSU. There is no doubt that Peterson can be viewed as an elite level corner, and someone that the Bills will be checking out closely.
I can't help but think that the Bills need to take advantage of all the defensive line surplus in this draft and really make some strides at beefing up the run defense in the front seven, not to mention improving the pass rush.
Outside of Peterson, who should be gone somewhere in the top five picks, there is one other first round talent out there, Prince Amukamara from Nebraska. Unfortunately for Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey, Amukamara decided not to play in the Senior Bowl, where the Bills could have received a very up close look at him. After Prince, there is a noticeable drop in corners.
Other names that Bills fans should be following for a potential draft pick include the following:
Brandon Harris (Miami-FL), Jimmy Smith (Colorado), Aaron Williams (Texas), Davon House (New Mexico State), Curtis Brown (Texas), Johnny Patrick (Louisville), Brandon Burton (Utah) and Ras-I Dowling (Virginia).
Safety Help Available In the Draft
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From a safety standpoint, the top level talent appears to be junior Rahim Moore, from UCLA. There do appear to be some decent safeties in the draft class, and the Bills figure to tap somebody to replace the hole left by a Donte Whitner departure.
Other safeties to watch for at the combines include the following: DeAndre McDaniel (Clemson), Quinton Carter (Oklahoma), Ahmad Black (Florida), Jaiquawn Jarrett (Temple), Will Hill (Florida), Harrison Smith (Notre Dame), Tyler Sash (Iowa), David Sims (Iowa State), Jay Valai (Wisconsin), Kenny Tate (Maryland) and Deunta Williams (North Carolina).
How Many 2010 Starters Return to Bills Secondary?
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With so many questions still left to be answered, it is very difficult to know exactly how many starters will return to the secondary in 2011. The CBA situation, the free agents that need to be addressed, the draft selection process and then what kind of depth does Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey need to factor in?
Right now, I feel good about Jairus Byrd and Leodis McKelvin coming back to start next year. But after that, my guess is as good as yours. What do Bills fans think? Who do you want to see come back next year, and what do you want the Bills to do in the off-season, once the chains are unlocked? Feel free to drop by and leave a comment or two.
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