2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 33: Why Cliff Lee's Move To the NL Isn't a Factor

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Less than four years ago, Cliff Lee was sent down to Single-A in an attempt to resurrect his career. In three seasons since, the crafty southpaw has averaged 222 innings, 16 wins, 7.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9, 2.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP per season with four different MLB teams.

In 2010, Lee posted a minuscule walk rate of 0.76, the lowest since Carlos Silva (0.43 BB/9) in 2005. Lee also led the league in first-pitch strike rate last year, firing the first pitch across the plate 69.8 percent of the time (MLB average 58.8 percent).

His contact rate (84.1 percent in 2010, 83.5 percent career, 80.7 percent MLB average) has always been high and his strikeout totals aren’t overwhelming. Luckily, Lee doesn’t have to have dominant stuff given the Phillies’ defense.

Although Lee’s shift back to the N.L. might appear beneficial, his N.L./A.L. splits since 2008 are very similar:

• N.L.: 181.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.50 K/9, 1.29 BB/9
• A.L.: 486 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.13 K/9, 1.35 BB/9

It is important to note, however, that Lee has fared very well in limited action at Citizens Bank Park:

• 35.2 IP, 2.52 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.11 K/9, 1.26 BB/9

Given a fourth-consecutive season of 210-plus innings, there’s every reason to believe Lee will perform as a top-five fantasy pitcher. Draft the 32-year-old with confidence.

	IP	W	K/9	BB/9	ERA	WHIP
2010 stats	212.1	12	7.84	0.76	3.18	1.00
3-year average	222.1	16	7.23	1.28	2.98	1.12
2011 FBI Forecast	224	17	7.20	1.30	3.20	1.12

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• No. 31: Joe Mauer
• No. 32: Victor Martinez

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options