2011 Projections No. 27: Why Adam Wainwright Is Better Than Lincecum & Hernandez

Nick Kappel@@NickKappelAnalyst IIIFebruary 4, 2011

ATLANTA - SEPTEMBER 09:  Starting pitcher Adam Wainwright #50 of the St. Louis Cardinals against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field on September 9, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Over the last two years, Adam Wainwright has established himself as one of the best starting pitchers in fantasy baseball.

His three-year averages in wins (17), BB/9 (2.36), ERA (2.68) and WHIP (1.14) are all better than those of Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez.

Since 2007 (Wainwright’s first full season in the majors), the towering right-hander has improved on his formerly average strikeout and walk rates:

Strikeout Rate

  • 2007: 6.06 K/9
  • 2008: 6.20 K/9
  • 2009: 8.19 K/9
  • 2010: 8.32 K/9

Walk Rate

  • 2007: 3.12 BB/9
  • 2008: 2.32 BB/9
  • 2009: 2.55 BB/9
  • 2010: 2.19 BB/9

In 2010, Wainwright was the only pitcher in baseball to record a value of 10 runs above average with three different pitchers (fastball, slider, curveball); in fact, Wainwright’s curveball was the best in the majors last season, checking in at 22.4 runs above average.

Looking forward to 2011, there’s nothing to suggest a letdown. A tiny regression to the mean from his 2010 ERA of 2.42 may be in order, but it shouldn’t be a big one.

Expect another dominant performance from the 29-year-old in 2011.

 IPWK/9BB/9ERAWHIP
2010 stats230.1208.322.192.421.05
3-year average198.2177.802.362.681.14
2011 FBI Forecast220188.402.302.701.17

 

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