MLB Predictions: A Complete Projection Of The Phillies Starting Pitching Staff
With all of the hype about the Phillies starting rotation, we all want to know how they are going to fair together. This collective unit has been deemed the best in baseball, and with that title, they will need to live up to the hype. Anything short of magnificent will be a let down for baseball fans.
As the regular season comes nearer and nearer, projections start flying in, and everyone wants to know what to expect (especially fantasy baseball owners). It is with this in mind that I have decided to project the stats of every starter in the Phillies rotation, from Cliff Lee down to Joe Blanton.
5. Joe Blanton
1 of 5
Yes, the Phillies do have a fifth starter, and his name is Joe Blanton. Last season Blanton went 9-6 as a starter in 28 starts, but had a 4.82 ERA. Blanton has not had a complete game as a Philly yet, and this won't be the year he does. Blanton will be pitching in the fifth spot, and with four aces on the team Charlie Manuel will probably want to use the bullpen when Blanton pitches.
Blanton had a down year last year, and he will probably not rebound this year. Blanton has gotten progressively worse since his rookie year, and he will probably have about the same ERA this year because teams will know that they absolutely have to take advantage of Blanton as a pitcher since the other four are much better.
Blanton will probably have a losing record, but since he will be in pitching match ups against other fifth starters, the Phillies offense (which looks worse and more lefty-oriented since last season) will probably post a run support average just a little bit below last season. If Blanton were higher in the rotation he probably would not have many wins this year, but since he is low I will give him a few extra wins.
Look for Blanton to be switched out will Kyle Kendrick at times, if this happens then his projected totals will fall.
Projection if not switched out with Kendrick: 29 starts, 8-10 record, 4.59 ERA
Projection if Kendrick pitches at time: 14 starts 3-7 record, 4.91 ERA
4. Cole Hamels
2 of 5
This could be Hamels' breakout year for the Phillies.
Cole Hamels is used to pitching as the ace or second starter with the Phillies. This put Hamels in some unfavorable pitching match ups. Now that he has been placed in the number four role, he will be pitching against some much easier competition. Bearing this in mind I fully expect the Phillies offensive production with Hamels pitching to rise, especially considering that the Phillies just could not hit for him at all last year, and he still posted a 12-11 record with a 3.06 ERA.
Opposing offenses will try to throw everything at Blanton and the top two starters of the Phillies because they think that that is when they will need it most and they will give players more days off against Hamels (or other teams). This will take a lot of the pressure off of Hamels, and he will be more comfortable on the mound. With this all happening at once, Hamels could have a heck of a start to the season until other teams wise up and throw everything they've got at every starter on the Phillies, and give days off before and after their games with the Phils. Hamels will most likely have a great first half with an ERA under 3.00, but it will probably rise in the second half.
Overall Hamels will most likely have an excellent year for Philadelphia barring any injuries.
Projections: 31 starts, 13-8 record, 3.08 ERA
3. Roy Oswalt
3 of 5
A flashback to the early 2000s may be in store for Oswalt this season.
When Roy came to Philly, he had a 6-12 record and a 3.42 ERA in 20 starts in Houston. During his stint in Philadelphia, however, he posted a 7-1 record and a 1.74 ERA in 12 starts. Now these numbers are too much to ask for (or project) for Oswalt this season, but he should still have a great year.
Oswalt had a pitiful offense behind him in Houston, but coming to Philadelphia, he has a much better one. Sure the Phillies offense lost Jayson Werth, but they are still very good, and if they stay healthy this year (they did not even come close to this last season) then they can be very powerful. When a pitcher like Oswalt does not feel like he has to shut out the opposition to get a win, then he can be calm and just pitch his game.
Last season Oswalt finished with a 2.76 ERA overall (the second best in his career) and a 1.025 WHIP. These number were amazing, and while he might not retain them, he will still be good and have a better record than 13-13.
With a better offense behind him, Oswalt's record should be very good. When he enters his comfort zone on the mound other teams will need to look out, because his ERA will be stellar. The last time this happened to Oswalt he had an ERA under 3.00 and he posted a 15-8 record. Could he do this again? Why not?
Projection: 32 starts, 17-8 record, 2.81 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
2. Roy Halladay
4 of 5
Halladay will have another good year, but not a breakout year since he is already one of the best.
We all watched last year when Halladay threw his perfect game against the Marlins, and his postseason no-hitter against the Reds who had one of the best offenses in the league. Halladay posted a 21-10 record and a 2.44 ERA with the Phillies in 33 starts, going so deep into games that he only had two no decisions all year. That was a great season, and there is no real reason to expect a drop off from Halladay.
With his nine complete games and four shutouts, Halladay was one of the best in the league, probably second only to Cliff Lee. Halladay's offense this year will only be slightly worse, and his pitching match ups will be slightly easier going from the ace to the second starter. With these essentially cancelling each other out, Halladay should pitch about the same with the same amount of run support (sometimes more because of injury). These projections were probably the easiest of all five as long as Halladay stays healthy.
Now that Halladay will not have to pitch as deep as he did last season he will probably not have as many decisions, but will have a better ERA. Halladay also had a year to adjust to the park and adjust his game accordingly, so his stats could be even better than last year.
Projection: 32 starts, 19-7 record, 2.38 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
1. Cliff Lee
5 of 5
Probably the biggest offseason move this year, Cliff Lee will stay dominant in the National League.
Lee did not have such a spectacular year last year, but that should all turn around this year, especially if the Phillies' offense stays healthy and dominant. Last season Lee posted 3.18 ERA and a 12-9 record despite being hurt in the beginning of the year. Lee is expected to return to dominance with the Phillies, and since he will be competing for the ace of the Phillies with Roy Halladay, he will step up his game like he has been known to do in the postseason.
Lee and Halladay are both great pitchers and they will probably want to get better by sharing tactics. If and when this happens, Lee will show how good he really is, and he will have an awesome year. The transition from the batters in the AL to the batters in the NL should not be hard since Lee had to face some of the best hitters in the game in the AL. Now that he is in the "slightly weaker" NL, Lee should become the true ace of the team.
Last season Lee's offense was about as good as the Phillies should be this year if they stay healthy, and if Lee steps up his game as I expect, he should have outstanding numbers.
Projection: 32 starts, 21-8 record, 2.67 ERA, 1.009 WHIP
