Super Bowl Predictions: 10 Can't Miss Gambling Plays

Eric Ball@@BigLeagueEballFeatured ColumnistFebruary 2, 2011

Super Bowl Predictions: 10 Can't Miss Gambling Plays

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    The biggest gambling day of the year is only days away. Football is the sport of choice for gamblers, and there are endless amounts of bets to be made.

    Prop bets like the color of the winning team's Gatorade, length of the national anthem and amount of times Jerry Jones is shown on TV are just a few.

    During the game, you have everything from who scores the first TD to how many INTs Aaron Rodgers will throw.

    But not all bets are created equal. Here are 10 Super Bowl bets that will win you money.

10. Over/Under: Total Tackles By Steelers Safety Troy Polamalu: 4.5

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    He has just been named Defensive Player of the Year and goes into the Super Bowl a bit under the radar.

    He had over four tackles in nine of the 16 games he played in this season including the playoffs.

    On the biggest stage the stars make the difference, and none other is bigger on the Steelers defense than Polamalu.

    The Packers love to throw the ball, and Troy Polamalu will have a ton of opportunities for tackles in the secondary.

    He is going to make about 6-7 tackles and soar over the 4.5 line.

    Bet: Over

9. Over/Under Sacks For Packers Linebacker Clay Matthews: .5

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    The runner-up for defensive player of the year led the NFL with 13.5 sacks during the regular season.

    He is a bear up the middle and has terrorized defenses all season long.

    He has another 2.5 sacks in the playoffs, recording a least half a sack in every ballgame. The Steelers offensive line is banged up and not their strength even when at full health.

    Matthews, with an assist of the mediocre Steelers O-line, should be able to help bettors cash in this bet. The over is -200 compared to the +160 under, but don't be scared off by the high price tag.

    Bet: Over

8. Odds A Punter Hits the Cowboys Stadium Scoreboard: 10:1

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    The enormous scoreboard caused a bit of a controversy last season when the Titans punter drilled the video board in the middle of a preseason game.

    But he had expressed his concerns before the game and may have been trying to prove a point in a meaningless game.

    Ever since then the scoreboard has gone unscathed, and the odds of a ball hitting the scoreboard are slim to none.

    While the 10:1 odds mean you have to throw down $1,000 to win a $100, but it's easy money. The punters are not going to try an intentionally kick a high punt to see if they can hit the scoreboard because the game is juuuust a little important.

    Take the expensive odds and win some easy money.

    Bet: No

7. Number Of Times Brett Favre Is Mentioned During FOX Broadcast: 2.5

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    This is the Packers first Super Bowl appearance since Favre left the team, and it seems like a safe bet that Joe Buck will mention his name at least once.

    But three times?

    The Aaron Rodgers fighting through adversity story to earn the faith of the Packers fanbase and management will force a mention.

    At some point, they will compare the body of work of both QBs since Rodgers was handed the reins of the Packers.

    If the Packers are winning in the fourth quarter, there will no doubt be old footage of Favre passing against the Patriots in his one Super Bowl win, which will force another mention.

    If the Packer win he will be mentioned once again. These are only a few situations.

    Easy bet.

    Bet: Over

6. Over/Under Receiving Yards by Antwaan Randle El:15.5

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    This season, Randle El caught 22 passes for only 253 yards in 16 games.

    He hit the 15-receiving-yards milestone a total of five times. In his only appearance this postseason, he managed to fumble while accumulating zero yards.

    Doesn't sound good right?

    But this prop bet seems too easy. That's never a good feeling to have when it comes to gambling.

    Randle El was one of the few players who was in the 2006 Super Bowl against the Seahawks and has a ton of postseason experience.

    In the big game will the Steelers continue to rely on rookies Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown?

    This could easily be a case of the forgotten man coming through. I sense a 20-yard gadget play in his future.

    Bet: Over

5. Over/Under John Kuhn Total Yards: 19.5

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    In 84 rushing attempts this season, Kuhn rushed for 281 yards.

    In Green Bay's 16 regular-season games, Kuhn surpassed 20 total yards seven times.

    He has been extremely quite in the postseason, with combined stats of eight yards on six attempts in three games.

    This coincides with the emergence of unknown rookie James Starks.

    Kuhn will be used in goal-line situations and other short yardage scenarios. Rushing for over 19 yards is very unlikely in the Super Bowl.

    Bet: Under

4. Will B.J. Raji Line Up On Offense? Yes Or No

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    This is a great value pick.

    Defensive tackle B.J. Raji made the biggest play of the NFC Championship when he intercepted a pass and returned it 18-yards for a touchdown.

    Vegas is now trying to entice the public into betting that Raji will play at least one down on offense for Green Bay.

    It wouldn't be his first time playing both ways.

    In Green Bay's second-round playoff win at the Atlanta Falcons, Raji lined-up as a goal-line fullback. Weighing in at 337 pounds, Raji was the lead blocker for running back John Kuhn, who scored on that play.

    But does the bet have enough value?

    "Yes" is at -175 and that is way to high for a guy that has only played one snap on offense in 19 games. Bet "No" and make a ton of money.

    Bet: No

3. Will Ben Roethlisberger Score a Rushing TD in the Game? Yes Or No

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    He may have only scored two rushing TDs in 12 regular season games, but I have a strong feeling he will be walking into the end zone at some point in the Super Bowl.

    While Rashard Mendenhall is a relaible short yardage back, the Steelers call for Big Ben when it matters most. He ran for a score against the Jets in the AFC Championship game.

    There is a precedent here in the Super Bowl as Big Ben ran for a TD in the 2006 game.

    With +350 odds, putting down a Benjamin will net you $350. That's great value and a strong bet in this Super Bowl.

    Bet: Yes

2. Will Greg Jennings Score a TD in the Game? Yes Or No

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    Greg Jennings has been the leading receiver for the Packers the entire season. He has 12 TD receptions in the regular season as Aaron Rodgers favorite target.

    But he has been shut out of pay dirt in three 2011 playoff performances. He has put up over 100 yards in two of those games and the lack of a TD may be a bit of a fluke.

    He has 16 receptions in the last two games and is going to be targeted early and often.

    Jennings has the best chance of busting out a big play that results in a TD for Green Bay. He also is the main guy for Rodgers on a 10-yard quick slant around the goal line.

    Odds are that at -115, Jennings finds the end zone.

    Bet: Yes

1. Over/Under Aaron Rodgers Completion Percentage: 63.5

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    Rodgers has had a great season for the Packers, throwing for a tidy 65.7 completion percentage.

    For his career he has a 64.4 accuracy clip.

    But this is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

    In their matchup a season ago, the Steelers were able to hold Rodgers to a 54.2 completion percentage, despite the Packers putting up 36 points.

    During the 2010 regular season the Steelers allowed a middle-of-the-road 61.2 percentage. If they hold serve, you win the bet comfortably.

    With the exotic blitz schemes of Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, it will take Rodgers some time to find a rhythm.

    Couple that with the inevitable jitters of the entire Packers offense in the first quarter, and we are looking at a completion percentage well below his career and season mark.

    Bet: Under