Super Bowl XLV Prop Bet Predictions From Whatifsports.com

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Super Bowl XLV Prop Bet Predictions From Whatifsports.com
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

From "Mean Joe" Greene taking a swig of a kid's Coke to three frogs croaking out "Bud-Weis-Er" to Larry Bird and Michael Jordan's "nothing but net" showdown to that "Milkaholic" baby hyping stocks online, the evolution of Super Bowl television ads may only be trumped, on occasion, by Las Vegas oddsmakers and the sassy prop bets they concoct.

Only in America can your grandma lay down a Benjamin on if Fergie will be wearing a Thong, G-String or Bikini Bottom when she first appears on stage during the Super Bowl halftime show. If she was right, grammie would pocket $100k and Fergie's career is extended another five years.

With that image in mind, Whatifsports.com has spent days running the numbers on several other
Super Bowl XLV prop bets and here are our predictions.

 
Prop Bet Vegas Odds WIS Prediction
Coin Flip Heads (-105)
Tails (-105)
Heads - 50.17%
Aguilera's National Anthem 1 minute 52 seconds 1 minute 47 seconds
Gatorade Shower Color Blue (10/1) Yellow - 70.2%
  Clear/Water (2/1)  
  Lime Green (5/1)  
  Orange (3/1)  
  Red (15/2)  
  Yellow (3/2)  
Brett Favre On-Air Mentions O/U - (2.5) Over - 4
QB Girlfriends on TV First Jessica Szohr (Rodgers' girlfriend) - (-140) Szohr
  Ashley Harlan (Ben's fiance) - (EVEN)  

 

Prop Bet Analysis

Coin Flip - This prediction falls under the "tails never fails sabremetric theory of gravity" or TNFSTOG.

Aguilera's National Anthem - I spent way too much time breaking down Aguilera's (no relation to Rick, former Minnesota Twins pitcher) National Anthem film. Youtube.com provided five sample videos proving Christina can breeze through the anthem as fast as 1 minute and 21 seconds or milk the moment for up to 1 minute 58 seconds. It took Carrie Underwood 1 minute 45 seconds to hit the last note prior to Super Bowl XLIV last year.

Gatorade Shower Color - I'm a visual learner. Here are the last five football Gatorade showers:

Urban MeyerMike TomlinNick SabanSean PaytonGene Chizik




Gatorade Shower Note: The last picture is Gene Chizik's arm.

Brett Favre On-Air Mentions - Broadcaster on-air segways into Favre (in no particular order):
Packers' general manager Ted Thompson rolling the dice, Aaron Rodgers stepping outside of his shadow, comparing Favre's Super Bowl XXXI stats with Rodgers Super XLV stats, and if Green Bay is winning late in the fourth quarter.

QB Girlfriends on TV First - Factors to consider: if either quarterback gets injured during game and/or if Roethlisberger or Rodgers have an impact on the first touchdown of the game. Jessica Szohr is more "famous" as an actress on "Gossip Girl", but Ashley Harlan's engagement is more intriguing considering Ben's recent off-the-field incidents.

Our NFL Simulation engine's 2,500 Super Bowl XLV simulations also generated predictions for the following in-game prop bets.

 
Prop Bet Vegas Odds WIS Prediction
Score First Steelers (-105) Steelers - 51.8%
  Packers (-125)  
Score First TD Steelers Packers - 51.1%
  Packers  
First Player TD Rashard Mendenhall 14.8%
  James Starks 11.4%
  Greg Jennings 9.7%
  Mike Wallace 9.6%
  James Jones 6.9%
  Donald Driver 6.3%
  Brandon Jackson 6.0%
  Hines Ward 5.7%
Over/Under (45.5) Over - (-105) Under - 66%
  Under - (-115)  
Super Bowl XLV MVP Donald Driver (25/1) 0.50%
  Hines Ward (25/1) 0.68%
  Greg Jennings (14/1) 1.64%
  Mike Wallace (16/1) 2.8%
  James Starks (14/1) 4.5%
  Rashard Mendenhall (15/2) 8.58%
  Ben Roethlisberger (7/2) 20.93%
  Aaron Rodgers (3/2) 32.71%


 
Team 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr.
Green Bay Packers 4.2 10.9 14.3 20.3
Pittsburgh Steelers 4.3 11.0 14.8 21.2

Simulate Super Bowl XLV

 
Team 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr.
Green Bay Packers 3 10 13 20
Pittsburgh Steelers 3 13 20 23

Simulate Super Bowl XLV

 
Team Last 2 Minutes of Half Last 2 Minutes of Game
Green Bay Packers 50.0% 30.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers 46.7% 31.4%

With Super Bowl XLV being your last taste of football for the next seven months, Whatifsports.com is here with your daily fix. Create your ultimate Super Bowl roster using our Dream Teams feature. Take that roster and simulate it against ANY OTHER NFL TEAM IN HISTORY using our NFL SimMatchup tool.

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