Despite the fact that the Chicago Bears won the NFC North this season, Vegas has them as home underdogs against divisional rival Green Bay in Sunday’s NFC Conference Championship. Online betting group Sportsbook.com has the Packers-Bears point spread set at Chicago +3.5 points, while the over-under is 43 points.
When the NFL Conference Championship betting lines opened last Sunday, the odds-makers had the Packers as three-point favorites; however, due to one-sided Green Bay betting, the number quickly moved off of the key number to where it stands now.
Even with the point spread adjustment, the NFL betting public is still pounding the red-hot favorites, as 70 percent of the Packers/Bears point spread bettors are pounding the cheeseheads.
As far as the Packers vs. Bears over-under is concerned, it originally opened at 44 points but was moved down to 43.5 on Wednesday, then adjusted once again to 43 on Friday. The majority of Sportsbook.com’s bettors agree with the line movement as 54 percent of the cash in on the under.
When the total opened last Sunday, this was the number (44) that jumped off the screen for me. After all, these teams met twice already this season and the under covered easily each time.
In their first meeting back on September 27th, the Bears and Packers combined to score 37 points; the total was 45—easy cover for under bettors. Then on the final week of the regular season, they combined to score 13 points; the total was 43.
These bitter rivals seem to always play in low scoring affairs. In their last ten head-to-head contests, they combined to average just 34.6 points. Moreover, in only one of those games did they combine to score enough points to cover Sunday’s over. And that was over three years ago when the Bears defeated the Packers 27-20 in October of 2007.
Led by Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson, Green Bay’s defense allows just 15.4 points per game; only the Steelers give up a lower number (15.1). Additionally, the Packers’ defense is just as impressive away from home (15.4) and nothing proves this more than the fact that the under covered in eight out of their ten road games.
Bears quarterback Jay Cutler has been god awful versus Green Bay since he landed in Chicago two years ago. In their four games he has just one touchdown compared to nine interceptions.
Personally, I believe Vegas has this point spread right where it should be, so it is a no play for me. However, the total definitely seems a bit off. Thankfully I got it earlier in the week at 44, but 43 still has some value as my number on this game is 41. Bet the Packers vs. Bears under 43 at Sportsbook.com.