2011 MLB Power Rankings, The Ides of January Edition (Part III, #1–10)
With most of the top free agents now signed and teams starting to take shape as we approach spring training, I thought I would share my pre-pre-season perspective on the relative strengths (and weaknesses) of all 30 major league teams. I have broken the article down into three installments, and will publish one of the segments each day this weekend.
Part I (Saturday) examined the three teams I view as the weakest in baseball; Part II (yesterday) covered the teams in the middle of the pack; and Part III (today) previews the 10 teams I believe to be the best in baseball.
Without further ado, here is how I see things:
10. Oakland Athletics (2010 record: 81-81)
Notable additions: OF David DeJesus, LHP Brian Fuentes, RHP Rich Harden, DH Hideki Matsui, RHP Brandon McCarthy, OF Josh Willingham
Notable subtractions: OF/DH Jack Cust, OF Rajai Davis, RHP Ben Sheets
The A’s offense finished 11th in the league last year, but the rotation more than compensated for the team’s dismal run production.
The front office subtracted LF Rajai Davis and DH Jack Cust from the offensive equation, but made quality additions with OFs David DeJesus and Josh Willingham, along with DH Hideki Matsui. Along with the return to health of CF Coco Crisp and a return to form by 2B Mark Ellis, those moves should help improve the lineup. The A’s offense should be able to move toward the middle of the pack in the American League.
That should be enough to make the club competitive in the AL West as they have an abundance of quality pitching—both in the rotation and the bullpen. Southpaw Brett Anderson should be healthy when the season gets underway. He’ll join fellow left-handers Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez, as well as righty Trevor Cahill in the starting rotation. Veterans Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy will vie for the final spot in the rotation.
Dominant young closer Andrew Bailey should be healthy for the start of the season. He’ll be supported by a deep relief corps which will include newly-signed free agents Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes.
You read it here first: the A’s will be this year’s version of the 2010 San Diego Padres. I doubt whether that will be enough to overtake the Rangers, but that is why they play the games.
9. Minnesota Twins (2010 record: 94-68)
Notable additions: SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Notable subtractions: RHP Jesse Crain, LHP Brian Fuentes, RHP Matt Guerrier, SS J.J. Hardy, 2B Orlando Hudson, RHP Carl Pavano, RHP Jon Rauch
The slotting of the Twins at #9 is wholly dependent on the front office securing Pavano’s signature on a new contract. The bullpen could be a bit of a mess this season, so Pavano’s presence in the rotation is crucial to the team’s success. That would allow Duensing to assume a key role in the bullpen, helping to offset the loss of Guerrier and Rauch.
The return to health of ex-closer Joe Nathan, to go along with Matt Capps, provides the club with a two-headed monster at the end of the game. The club will need RHP Pat Neshek to return to the form that once made him a solid set-up man.
The Twins offense, which was 5th in the AL in 2010, should be improved. The club has re-signed Jim Thome to a one-year contract, so they are set at DH. First baseman Justin Morneau is recovered from his concussion and will return to a lineup that includes C Joe Mauer, OFs Delmon Young and Jason Kubel, and Thome, among others. They will have a new middle infield, as Orlando Hudson and JJ Hardy have been replaced by Japanese import Nishioka and Alexi Casilla.
8. Atlanta Braves (2010 record: 91-71)
Notable additions: RHP Scott Linebrink, LHP George Sherrill, 2B Dan Uggla
Notable subtractions: LF Matt Diaz, LHP Mike Dunn, RHP Kyle Farnsworth, UT Omar Infante, 1B Derrek Lee, RHP Takashi Saito, RP Billy Wagner
The Braves made the post-season despite enduring the prolonged absence of 3B Chipper Jones and a highly disappointing season from CF Nate McLouth. The offense was 5th in the league in runs scored (4.56/g), and should improve in 2011.
The front office converted a utility player and young reliever into a solid middle-of-the-order bat (Dan Uggla). He’ll pair with rookie slugger Freddie Freeman (one of the best prospects in baseball) to form a new right-hand side on the infield. With the expected improvement from Chipper and McLouth (as well as 3B Troy Glaus) and the continued development of RF Jason Heyward, the offense should be fine.
The starting rotation is good enough to win the division. I expect youngster Kris Medlen to overtake RHP Kenshin Kawakami as the club’s fifth starter.
The lurking issue for the Braves is the bullpen, where the loss of Dunn, Saito, and Wagner creates a significant concern heading into the new season. There should be a heated competition for the closer’s role in spring training, with one-time closer Sherrill the most likely candidate to land the job. With that said, don’t count out fellow southpaw Jonny Venters, who struck out 93 batters in 83 IP last season.
7. Chicago White Sox (2010 record: 88-74)
Notable additions: RHP Jesse Crain, DH Adam Dunn, LHP Will Ohman
Notable subtractions: RHP Freddy Garcia, RHP Bobby Jenks, OF/DH Andruw Jones, RHP Scott Linebrink, RHP J.J. Putz, DH Manny Ramirez
Andruw Jones didn’t cut the mustard at DH/OF, so the ChiSox took a flier on Manny Ramirez … and then they learned what the Red Sox and Dodgers had discovered: that Manny’s skill set is in free fall. Looking to improve upon the AL’s 7th-best offense, the Sox added DH Adam Dunn to the lineup, who has averaged 40 HR and 101 RBI over the last seven years. With free agents Paul Konerko and AJ Pierzynski re-signed, anticipated improvement from Gordon Beckham, and the expected development of one of their young third basemen (Brent Morel or Dayan Viciedo), the offense should produce enough runs to win the division in 2011.
The question with the Pale Hose is the pitching staff. As for the rotation, John Danks and Edwin Jackson were the only starters to post ERAs under 4.00 in 2010, plus they will be without Jake Peavy for the first month or two of the season.
There has been considerable conjecture as to whether rookie Chris Sale will start the year in the rotation (to compensate for Peavy’s absence) or in the bullpen (to compensate for the loss of Jenks, Linebrink and Putz). There is speculation he could start the year in the rotation and then get moved into the bullpen after Peavy returns.
Some pundits point to the New York Yankees’ handling of youngsters Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes as a model for the White Sox, but while such a move would be a good means for managing his IP, it is fraught with potential problems.
Beyond the question of what to do with Sale, manager Ozzie Guillen would have to turn to either Matt Thornton or Sergio Santos (my sleeper candidate) at the end of the game.
6. Cincinnati Reds (2010 record: 91-71)
Notable additions: OF Fred Lewis, OF Jeremy Hermida, SS Edgar Renteria
Notable subtractions: SS Orlando Cabrera, OF Jim Edmonds, RHP Aaron Harang, LHP Arthur Rhodes
The Reds sat on the sidelines for the first two months of the off-season, but the front office has recently added Hermida, Lewis, and Renteria to augment the NL’s top run-scoring offense. Renteria will do battle with Paul Janish (as well as sleeper candidate Zack Cozart) to determine who will succeed Cabrera at shortstop; otherwise, Joey Votta, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips return to lead an improved offensive attack.
Once upon a time, Harang was the staff ace, but his abilities have been in decline, and by the end of the year he was just a shadow of his former self. He had clearly become the 6th-best pitcher in the rotation and was unable to crack the team’s post-season rotation. The fortunes on the club will rest on whether Travis Wood becomes a significant contributor and Homer Bailey to continues to progress into a front-of-the-rotation talent.
5. Texas Rangers (2010 record: 90-72)
Notable additions: 3B Adrian Beltre, OF Endy Chavez, LHP Arthur Rhodes, C Yorvit Torrealba, RHP Brandon Webb,
Notable subtractions: DH Vladimir Guerrero, LHP Cliff Lee, C Bengie Molina
The Rangers are the defending American League champions, but the loss of Cliff Lee (and the quality prospects they traded to get him) will be nearly impossible to overcome, at least in the short term.
The Rangers need another starting pitcher, and though Brandon Webb may be a nice addition, he may also prove to be this year’s version of Rich Harden—a bust in 2010. I fully expected the front office to jump in on Carl Pavano once Lee bid them adieu, and I suspect they’ll regret not pursuing him (as they would not only add him to their rotation, but simultaneously subtract him from their division rivals).
The key to the 2011 season will be whether the returning starters can sustain their performances from last year, and whether Derek Holland (and/or Martin Perez) becomes the pitcher everyone thinks he (they) can. If not, the ball club may find it necessary to move fireballer Neftali Feliz into the rotation.
While Alexi Ogando appears fully capable of assuming the closer’s role if Feliz goes to the bullpen, such a move would weaken the bullpen considerably.
The offense will again be formidable, assuming new 3B Adrian Beltre can resemble the guy he was with Boston and not the guy he was in Seattle for most of the last decade. Remember, Texas fans, he won’t be in a contract year. I expect Mitch Moreland will become the everyday 1B and provide significantly more offense than the Chris Davis/Justin Smoak tandem did in 2010.
4. New York Yankees (2010 record: 95-67)
Notable additions: LHP Pedro Feliciano, C Russell Martin, RHP Rafael Soriano
Notable subtractions: LHP Andy Pettitte, RHP Kerry Wood
The Yankees entered the off-season focused on signing left-hander Cliff Lee to pair with CC Sabathia atop of the rotation, but a funny thing happened on the way to the ballpark—the Phillies stole Lee out from under the Yankees nose at the eleventh hour. Hey, turn about is fair play, right? The Yankees did the same thing to the Red Sox a few years ago when they signed Mark Teixeira.
Karma can be a bitch!
And to compound the Yankees dilemma, the Red Sox stepped in and signed Carl Crawford (NY’s plan B) while the Yankees fiddled around awaiting Lee’s decision. You had better believe that George Steinbrenner would NOT have allowed his GM to pursue such a passive course of action. Hank doesn’t appear to be much of a chip off the old block! (Oh, wait, he stepped up and ordered the signing of clubhouse cancer Rafael Soriano ... woopie!)
With Lee lost and Andy Pettitte seriously considering retirement, the Yankees face the prospect of opening the year with AJ Burnett, Ivan Nova, and Sergio Mitre at the back end of the rotation. Ouch! That should not be the rotation of a $200 million ball club.
The addition of Rafael Soriano may provide the club options, but he is not the savior many Yankees fans have already declared him to be. (Is he going to improve on Kerry Woods’ 0.69 ERA with New York? I don’t think so.) He could, however, allow the Yankees to move Joba Chamberlain—either into the rotation or in a trade during the season.
Don’t be surprised to see Andy Pettitte pull a Roger Clemens and make a mid-season return for a half-season (once his kids are out of school and are able to travel to New York City for the summer).
The Yankee offense should be better in 2011, with Alex Rodriguez another year removed from his hip surgery, Curtis Granderson now acclimated to life in Gotham, and Jesus Montero poised to take over behind the plate.
But until they do something about the rotation they are no better than #4 on my list, with the Rangers just a starting pitcher away from overtaking them.
3. San Francisco Giants (2010 record: 92-70)
Notable additions: SS Miguel Tejada
Notable subtractions: SS Edgar Renteria, INF Juan Uribe
The defending world champs return an outstanding rotation and bullpen, but the problem in San Francisco remains the offense, which 10th of 16 teams in offense runs per game in 2010. The subtraction of Renteria and Uribe, with addition of Tejada, is a net loss for the ball club.
I know that pitching and defense win championships, and I know the club won the World Series last year with largely the same team as they'll field in 2011, but lightning doesn’t strike the same place twice. Sometimes, teams manage to win in spite of their weaknesses, and to an extent that was the case with the 2010 Giants. The challenge for the front office this off-season was to improve the offense and they didn’t do that. In fact, it appears they have taken a small step backwards.
The 2011 club will have to rely on a return to form from Pablo Sandoval—who has been ordered to report to spring training much slimmer—in order to achieve the needed improvement on offense. And I am not sure it’s reasonable to expect Sandoval to make THAT kind of an impact.
On a positive note, the team will enjoy a full season from catcher Buster Posey in 2011, and that should help offset some of the downgrade from Uribe to Tejada.
The key to the upcoming season will be whether Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner prove to be consistent performers in the rotation. If they struggle, or take a small step backward, they could be in a catfight for the division. Of particular concern is Bumgarner, who saw his workload increase by 73 IP last season—that kind of increase from year-to-year (for any pitcher under 25 years of age) is problematic and can be a harbinger of exhaustion or injury in the following season.
2. Philadelphia Phillies (2010 record: 97-65)
Notable additions: SP Cliff Lee
Notable subtractions: 1B Mike Sweeney, RF Jayson Werth
The Phillies are one of two teams heading into spring training with a legitimate claim to the designation as the best team in baseball.
They entered the free agent fray at the end of the process and lured southpaw Cliff Lee away from the Rangers and Yankees. As a result, the rotation, which tied for the 3rd-best in ERA+ last season, was improved significantly. (Lee's arrival is also addition by subtraction, as it means that Joe Blanton and his 4.84 ERA will be removed from the rotation and likely dealt elsewhere). As a result, they have what is arguably the best rotation in baseball (and potentially the best rotation in baseball over the last 20 or 30 years).
The weakness of the club remains its relief corps, which ranked 9th of the 16 teams in the National League last year. They retained J.C. Romero, but could have used a quality addition to improve and lengthen the bullpen. They opted for the status quo when improvement was needed.
Time will tell if the strategy will work for them.
They lost right-fielder Jayson Werth to the Washington Nationals, but the presence of top prospect Domonic Brown, the best OF prospect in baseball, should mitigate the impact of Werth’s departure.
This is a potentially dominant ball club. The balanced lineup was the second-highest scoring squad in the league last year. The Phillies will join the Red Sox as the only teams to win 100+ games in 2011 and as part of a northeastern-corridor Fall Classic.
1. Boston Red Sox (2010 record: 89-73)
Notable additions: LF Carl Crawford, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, RHP Bobby Jenks, RHP Dan Wheeler
Notable subtractions: 3B Adrian Beltre, UT Bill Hall, C Victor Martinez
The 2010 Red Sox were a very good ball club. They scored the second-most runs in all of baseball and won 89 games despite being decimated by injuries, experiencing sub-par campaigns from two of their top pitchers (Josh Beckett and John Lackey), and enduring another what-can-we-expect season from Daisuke Matsuzaka. The ownership enjoyed a continued string of sellouts because of pre-season and early-year ticket sales, but as the season progressed the ballclub played before increasingly-smaller crowds that tired of paying the highest prices in baseball to watch Darnell McDonald and Daniel Nava.
Everything in sports is predicated on health, but assuming the Sox will experience significantly better health in 2011, this is the best team in baseball, though Philadelphia fans would argue the point. The team enters the new season expecting to enjoy healthy years from Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis, and while a return to health from those players would have been enough to vault the team into the vicinity of 95 wins, the front office wasn’t satisfied.
Enter Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, who will be the new three and four hitters in an already-potent lineup. And then, for good measure, they added Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler as part of a major overhaul of the bullpen.
The Red Sox success in 2011 is not assured. It is crucial they receive an improved performance from RHPs Josh Beckett and John Lackey, which they will almost-certainly get. Whether or not you like the Red Sox, it’s important to remember that even with all of the injuries and the mediocre seasons from Mssrs Beckett and Lackey, this is a team that won 89 games last year!
It says here the Red Sox win 100+ in 2011, en route to an October match-up against the Phillies in the World Series.