MLB Predictions: Picking Cliff Lee and the 2011 NL East Preseason All-Stars
When the Phillies, to the surprise of many, reacquired Cliff Lee last December, many pundits conceded the NL East (and beyond) to Philadelphia.
But where would Cliff Lee rank on an all-NL East team?
Which other pitchers would join him in the five-man rotation, and indeed, who would be flashing him signals from behind the dish?
Would it be Brain McCann of the Braves, his own catcher, Carlos Ruiz, or the future surefire Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez of the Nationals?
My goal for this presentation was to pick the mythical All-NL East team. Unlike the real All-Star Game, I view this as more of a seven-game series, with this squad battling stars from the other divisions.
Call it East Coast bias, but I'd probably give the AL East and the NL East byes if there were to be an actual clash of the six division all-star teams. One could also make a case for the NL West getting a bye, but let's leave that discussion for another time.
So, here we go starting with our catcher.
Let the games and the debates begin!
Catcher: Brian McCann (Braves)
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While Ivan Rodriguez of the Senators has had an amazing career (and is still doing quite well at age 39) and the Phillies' Carlos Ruiz is coming off a terrific season, Brian McCann is the right selection.
McCann, who will turn 27 in February, has already played in five All-Star games, and has won four silver sluggers. He has hit over .300 twice, and boasts a lifetime average of .289, driving in about 89 runs each season.
Defensively, he's adequate, if not yet a Gold Glover, but his all-around game makes him one of the top catchers in the majors, once you reserve the top spot to the Minnesota Twins' Joe Mauer.
First Base: Ryan Howard (Phillies)
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First base is the deepest position in baseball, but the NL East (with token apologies to Gaby Sanchez and Ike Davis) only feature one great player: Ryan Howard.
Howard (31 years old) won the Rookie of the Year in 2005, although he played in only 89 games that year.
In the last five years, he has amassed three RBI titles and two home run crowns; he has also won one league MVP, and finished in the top 10 his other four full seasons.
It is a testament to Howard's consistent productivity that his line from last year—.276 with 31 homers, 108 RBI and 87 runs (along with an OPS of .859)—was considered a poor season by his standards.
Second Base: Chase Utley (Phillies)
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Second base was a three-way contest between new Braves' second sacker Dan Uggla, the Marlins' versatile Omar Infante and Chase Utley.
Uggla may have put up bigger numbers last year, but I'll take the better all-around player, Chase Utley. As for Infante, his selection by Charlie Manuel for the 2010 All-Star Game was generous, but he did have a solid year.
Utley is now 32, and coming off a down year by his standards—a year plagued by injuries.
Chase has made the NL All-Star team the last five years, and had won the previous four Silver Slugger awards (his string was broken by Uggla last year). Defensively, he has worked to become one of the best second basemen in baseball.
One of the most respected players in the game, his intangibles are off-the-charts.
In a good way.
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Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals)
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As good as Ryan Zimmerman is, this was not an easy selection.
The Mets' David Wright, while not yet the superstar he was projected to be, had very similar stats to Zimmerman's last year. Their power is about equal, but Wright has more speed.
I'll also take Zimmerman's glove. Not sure what he'll use, but you get the point.
Placido Polanco, returned to third base for the Phillies last year and had a terrific year. If you watch him every day, you see how polished a player he is.
Martin Prado can play all of the infield positions as well as left field, and may play here (depending upon Chipper Jones' status) or left field. No matter where he plays, he always finds a way to hit .300 or better.
Our selection, Zimmerman, has notched an All-Star berth, a Gold Glove and two Silver Sluggers thus far. Only 26, he is now heading into his prime seasons.
Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
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Hanley Ramirez, infuriating though he may be, is as talented as they come. He was a fairly easy pick over the almost equally puzzling Jose Reyes and the apparently declining Jimmy Rollins.
Per J-Roll, the Phillies fan in me prays for his good health and a return to something approximating his 2007 MVP form.
Let's look at what H-Ram has averaged from 2006-10:
BA: .313; OBP: .385; SLG: .520; OPS: .905
HR: 25; RBI: 78; Runs 113; SB: 40.
Hanley's production has been among the very best in the National League, regardless of position.
Defensively? To be kind, his play has been erratic if sometimes downright nonchalant, but he has cut way down on his errors the last two seasons.
Utility Infielder: Martin Prado (Braves)
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I thought about the aforementioned David Wright or Dan Uggla for this slot, as they narrowly missed the starting lineup. Both are fine players.
In the end, I favored versatility more than power, so my decision came down to Placido Polanco of the Phillies (terrific at second or third) or Martin Prado of the Braves (who can play those, plus a little short, some first, and left field if needed.) I chose the latter.
From the picture above, Prado looks a little like Polanco, getting his patented inside-out hit to right field.
Prado (27 years old) notched his first All-Star berth last year, hitting .307 (third consecutive year above .300) and scoring 100 runs.
Left Field: Jayson Werth (Nationals)
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There are a lot of oddities in this selection and in this picture.
In no particular order, here are five, as befits this five-tool player:
1. Jayson Werth was chosen as a left fielder. He has played some games here over the years, so I took advantage of his versatility to cover a weakness.
2. Jayson Werth as a National: Get used to it! With that huge contract he signed, he'll be a fixture in D.C., if mostly in right field.
3. Jayson Werth in a suit.
4. Jayson Werth cleaned up: at the bank, and at the sink, if you will.
5. Jayson Werth smiling.
You get the idea.
Whether the Nationals overpaid him—and for too long—remains to be seen. But Werth is coming off three very solid years, and possesses all the tools (power, speed, defense, rifle arm) to be an All-Star for several more seasons to come.
Center Field: Shane Victorino (Phillies)
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A healthy Carlos Beltran may have commanded this slot, but Beltran has played only sparingly the last two seasons.
So, I will gladly opt for the Flyin' Hawaiian, who has won three consecutive Gold Gloves for his strong play in center field.
Victorino is speedy, plays aggressively, has a cannon for a throwing arm and has been one of the Phillies' spark plugs the last four seasons.
If I were managing him, I would try to get Shane to lose his affection for the homer (a career-high 18 last year) and gain some affection for on-base percentage (a criminally low .327 last year).
Warts and all, he is a fine, energetic player who knows how to win.
Right Field: Jason Heyward (Braves)
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The J-Hey Kid came into his rookie season with a ton of hype, and acquitted himself quite well in trying to fulfill it. And hey, J-Hey was only 20 last year.
Heyward immediately became one of the Braves' best players, and helped lead them to a postseason appearance.
Expect a 2011 season somewhere in the range of .290 BA / .405 OBP / .495 SLG / .900 OPS with 23 homers, 85 RBI, 90 runs and 15 steals.
He'll make four or five errors in right, but will also cover a lot of ground and deliver a bunch of web gems, several in key situations.
Not bad for a 21-year-old kid just learning the ropes.
Fourth Outfielder: Mike Stanton (Marlins)
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There weren't a ton of candidates for the fourth outfielder spot.
I tossed around names like Angel Pagan (who gives you pretty good all-around skills and a lot of speed, but I'm not sold yet), a declining Raul Ibanez and either Beltran or Jason Bey, but did not know how either of those former All-Stars would bounce back in 2011.
In the end, I went for another young slugger with a world of potential: the Marlins' 21-year-old Mike Stanton.
In just 100 games last year, Stanton (listed at 6'5", 235 pounds) popped 22 homers and knocked in 59 runs. Yes, he struck out a lot (123 times) but had some other pluses that are intriguing: a) He drew six intentional bases on balls; b) he stole five bases and c) he was second among all NL right fielders with 10 assists.
He could be scary in a couple years.
Starting Pitchers: Halladay and Lee Lead the Way
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1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)
2. Cliff Lee (Phillies)
3. Josh Johnson (Marlins)
4. Johan Santana (Mets)
5. Tim Hudson (Braves)
Although each of these five pitchers could be the ace for a lot of teams, I realize that I ran out of room for two more pitchers who could have easily made the list. They are both Phillies: Cole Hamels (I flipped a coin between him and Santana) and Oswalt (right there with Hudson).
Our staff is led by "Doc" Halladay, who won the Cy Young unanimously in his first season in the NL, and also threw a regular season perfect game and a postseason no-hitter. Yeah, he adjusted pretty well.
Cliff Lee, his new teammate: Although finally roughed up a little by the Giants in the World Series, Lee is arguably still the best big-game starting pitcher in baseball, and is coming off three straight terrific regular seasons.
Josh Johnson, when on, is electric: he led the NL in ERA last year.
Santana is expected to return in June, and has recently started throwing again. The two-time (AL) Cy Young Award Winner has been a little snake-bitten as a Met, but has still been quite good in his three seasons in Queens: 16-7, 2.53 in 2008, 13-9, 3.13 in 2009, and 11-9, 2.98 last year.
Hudson, the craft veteran righty, had his best year since 2003, compiling a 17-9 mark with a 2.83 ERA.
I hope that Hamels and Oswalt read this and prove without a doubt that they should have made this rotation.
The Closer: Francisco Rodriguez (Mets)
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In looking at the NL East teams' projected closers, I was more than a little underwhelmed.
The Braves actually list young Craig Kimbrel as the closer on their depth chart. He went 4-0 with a microscopic 0.44 ERA in 20 games last year. He also had 40 strikeouts and 16 walks in 20.1 innings, so there is a lot of potential there.
But alas, it's too soon to take him as our closer, as he only has one career save.
The Marlins have Leo Nunez, who is okay (56 saves in 75 career opportunities and a career ERA above 4.00). Next.
The Phils have Brad Lidge, who was "lights-out" in 2008, "lights-on" with a can of gasoline ready to douse flames in 2009, and somewhere in between last year. Not a bad choice, but...
The Nationals have Tyler Clippard, and I should be more respectful of a 6'3" dude who wears glasses and fanned 112 batters in 91 innings. Clippard also had a remarkable 19 decisions out of the bullpen last year, and a fine 3.07 ERA. Here's the weird part: He only saved one game out of 11 opportunities last year. Ouch!
In the final analysis, I will turn to Francisco (K-Rod) Rodriguez and hope he returns with a healthy arm and a more even temperament. Yes, he last pitched on August 14, and he had that little altercation with his father-in-law, but to his credit he does have 268 career saves with a 2.50 ERA.
2011 NL East Starting Lineup
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So, how will Phillies' manager Charlie Manuel fill out his mythical lineup card?
By the way, the All-NL East managerial selection was pretty obvious once Bobby Cox retired.
Here's the lineup card that I believe Cholly should present to the home plate umpire.
R=right-handed; L=left-handed; S=switch.
1 - Hanley Ramirez, SS (R)
2 - Chase Utley, 2B (L)
3 - Ryan Zimmerman, 3B (R)
4 - Ryan Howard, 1B (L)
5 - Jayson Werth (R)
6 - Jason Heyward (L)
7 - Brian McCann (L)
8 - Shane Victorino (S)
9 - Roy Halladay (R)
Not a bad lineup: We have our Ryans, our Jasons (however they're spelled) and our first six batters go R-L-R-L-R-L. With our impressive starting pitching, we should win a few games.
Now that my 2011 All-NL East team has been presented, it's your turn to weigh in below.
Do you agree with my selections? Please sound off, and thanks for reading.
I also welcome seeing All-Star teams from the other divisions, and would enjoy "playing" a mythical series versus any of the other divisions. Just so "we" get a first-round bye.
For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and appearances, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com
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