2011 NFL Mock Draft: Luck Is On A.J. Green's Side
While most of us are concerned with the NFL playoffs, many collegiate players have been making themselves either eligible for the NFL draft or returning to school this week.
Andrew Luck made a splash when he announced that he would be making a return to Stanford even though his head coach was on his way to the NFL. LaMichael James also made headlines just before the BCS title game announcing he would be returning to school, while Cam Newton announced days after that he would be making the jump to the NFL.
With Luck returning to school, there does not appear to be a consensus number one pick, but two names are flying around the board: A.J. Green and Nick Fairley.
Fairley has all the momentum and is the trendy pick following his dominate performance against Oregon. Green has been floating around the top of everyone’s big board all season and at times appeared to be the No. 1 prospect overall.
1. Carolina Panthers
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A.J. Green WR, Georgia
With Andrew Luck removing himself from the draft, there is no QB on the board that stands out as a true franchise QB. With no franchise QB available, the Panthers will use this pick on the best available player—that player will be A.J. Green.
Green averaged a touchdown per game this season and over 90 receiving yards per game. Green had more receiving yards than the Bulldogs leading rusher this season and almost 200 more yards than the bulldogs second leading receiver (consider also, Green missed the first four games due to suspension).
As much as I like Nick Fairley, Green is too much of a weapon to pass up.
Other options: Nick Fairley, Da'Quan Bowers
2. Denver Broncos
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Nick Fairley DT/DE, Auburn
This will be a tough pick for the Broncos who may lose Champ Bailey to free agency, leaving them with a huge hole in the secondary, but with a potential lockout looming, no one knows when free agency will begin. With that in mind, Denver really needs someone other than Dumervill that can rush the passer—that guy is Nick Fairley.
While Fairley was already a top ten selection prior to the BCS National Championship, the performance against Oregon sealed a top three spot for Fairley. He only had one sack in the game but seemed to be in the backfield every play and was constantly putting pressure on Darron Thomas.
Other options: Patrick Peterson, Da'Quan Bowers
3. Buffalo Bills
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Da'Quan Bowers DE, Clemson
If the Bills have to pick here (due to failed trade down attempts), they will have to take Bowers as the best player available or be forced to overdraft for need. Bowers was the top prospect coming out of high school and did not disappoint with his 16 sacks this season and five multi-sack games.
The problem is that the Bills really need someone that can stop the run. Their third ranked pass defense was solid this season, but their run defense was dead last. And the only knock on Bowers is his run stopping abilities.
Chan Gailey will look to trade this pick and move down and pursue Marcell Dareus or if they feel that Gabbert, Newton, or Mallett is a franchise QB, they may pursue one of them.
Other options: Ryan Mallett, Blaine Gabbert
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4. Cincinnati Bengals
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Patrick Peterson CB, LSU
Peterson on the board at number four is too good to be true. While the Bengals have a need on the defensive line, Peterson is too good to pass up.
Jonathan Joseph is a free agent, so this pick fills a need for the Bengals. Peterson was a shut down corner in the SEC and I expect him to continue that in the NFL, Peterson also gives you an exceptionally skilled punt returner.
Other options: Ryan Mallett, Robert Quinn
5. Arizona Cardinals
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Ryan Mallett QB, Arkansas
With Andrew Luck deciding to return to Stanford, one of the best debates in this draft is at the QB position. Cam Newton had the best collegiate season, Blaine Gabbert was solid across the board, but Mallett has all the natural abilities to play the position.
The biggest knock on Mallett has been the inability to win the big game—remind anyone of Peyton Manning? Playing in the SEC has made Mallett battle-tested, and I don’t think anything can be worse than Arizona’s QB situation this season.
Other options: Blaine Gabbert, Robert Quinn
6. Cleveland Browns
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Robert Quinn DE/OLB, North Carolina
Quinn could have been in the talks to be the number one overall pick had he been eligible to play this season, but his intangibles and his sophomore season keeps him in the top ten.
He is probably the most versatile player in the draft and has the ability to play both the run and the pass, and reminds you of Terrell Suggs watching him play. The Browns couldn’t defend the run last year, this would be a step in the right direction.
The Browns could also use a WR, which makes Julio Jones an option here.
Other options: Julio Jones, Marcell Dareus
7. San Francisco 49ers
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Prince Amukamara CB, Nebraska
San Francisco's 24th ranked pass defense forces us to expect them to try to improve on that next season.
San Francisco has made it clear that their QB of the future is not on the roster but Newton and Gabbert won’t be on Harbaugh’s wish list. Look for Donovan McNabb to be leading the 49ers next season.
Amukamara has the potential to be an elite CB in the NFL, so don’t expect San Francisco to pass on his potential.
Other options: Ryan Mallett, Marcell Dareus
8. Tennessee Titans
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Marcell Dareus DT/DE, Alabama
Tennessee’s defense struggled down the stretch and couldn’t even get pressure against the Redskins makeshift offensive line in Week 11. Dareus is a big-time talent, and Tennessee have been looking to replace Haynesworth for the past two seasons which they can finally do with Dareus.
Dareus couldn’t have landed in a better spot as Tennessee knows how to get production out of their defensive lineman.
Other options: Cam Newton, J.J. Watt
9. Dallas Cowboys
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J.J. Watt DE/DT, Wisconsin
Dallas will be hoping that Amukamara falls to them as they could really use another corner opposite Newman. However, with Amukamara off the board, Dallas needs someone to replace Igor Olshansky.
Olshansky seems to disappear often in games and hasn’t lived up to the expectations in the Big D, Watt will fill in nicely at right end and should improve Dallas’ pass rush opposite of DeMarcus Ware.
Other options: Prince Amukamara, Aldon Smith
10. Washington Redskins
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Cam Newton QB, Auburn
The Heisman Trophy winner is off the board with the tenth pick. The Redskins have a lot of needs but QB is their biggest need. The McNabb trade was a failure and Shanahan seems ready to move on to the next one.
Cam Newton compares most to Big Ben at the NFL level, and if he makes the right decisions, he has all the tools to be successful. The Redskins have a lot of holes on the offensive line currently and Newton could hide those holes a bit with his scrambling ability.
Blaine Gabbert will also get a lot of serious consideration by Coach Shanahan and whichever one has a stronger combine will most likely be the choice.
Other options: Blaine Gabbert, Julio Jones
11. Houston Texans
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Von Miller OLB, Texas A&M
With Wade Phillips coming to town the Texans need to get the players to operate in the 3-4. The Texans really, and I mean really, need help in the secondary but there isn’t anyone worth taking with this selection.
The Texans may look to trade down and try to land a CB and an OLB later in the draft, that may be their best option.
Other options: Brandon Harris, Allen Bailey
12. Minnesota Vikings
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Ryan Kerrigan DE, Purdue
The Vilkings' defense was very underwhelming this season after a huge season the year before. Ray Edwards is set to become a free agent, had a poor season, and the Vikings will look to replace him with this pick.
Kerrigan’s stock has improved rapidly as he lead the NCAA in tackles for loss this season. The Vikings could take a long and hard look at Blaine Gabbert here also, but with Frazier at the helm he will look to fix the holes in his defense first and attempt to land a veteran QB like Matt Hasselbeck or Vince Young.
Other options: Blaine Gabbert, Allen Bailey
13. Detroit Lions
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Akeem Ayers OLB, UCLA
Another team that could really use another CB is the Lions, once again, there isn’t a CB available that is worth a top 15 pick, so the Lions will attempt to improve their front seven.
They haven’t gotten what they expected to get out of Julian Peterson, therefore Ayers will be his replacement. Ayers is a very versatile player and has the potential to play on Sundays for a very long time.
Other options: Aldon Smith, Allen Bailey
14. St. Louis Rams
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Julio Jones WR, Alabama
With Jones still on the board this pick is a no-brainer for the Rams. They would have taken a look at Justin Blackmon, but he decided to head back to Oklahoma State.
Julio Jones could turn a terrible group of WRs into a solid group with Clayton and Amendola. Jones’ unique blend of strength, size, and speed make him an asset to whatever team drafts him; luckily for the Rams he lasts until No. 14.
Other options: Nate Solder, Aldon Smith
15. Miami Dolphins
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Mark Ingram RB, Alabama
Ingram will be taking his talents to South Beach next season (sorry, I had to do it). He had a slack year but was coming off a knee injury which could have potentially slowed him down. Expect his stock to remain high with a solid Pro Day workout.
With Ronnie Brown hurt every season, and Ricky Williams contemplating retirement, expect the Dolphins to address their offensive woes with the best RB in the draft still on the board. While Chad Henne has been a bust, I don’t think the Dolphins will see Blaine Gabbert or Jake Locker as the answer.
Other options: Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
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Aldon Smith DE, Missouri
Aldon Smith is a freak athlete that has begun to climb a lot of big boards, mainly because of the assumption that he will have a big time combine.
Smith makes sense for the Jaguars because they can’t rush the passer (unless they are playing the Browns). Averaging only one sack per game outside of the Browns game, the Jaguars really need someone to rush the passer and Smith fits the bill.
Other options: Cameron Jordan, Allen Bailey
17. New England Patriots (From Oakland)
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Aaron Williams CB, Texas
The Patriots don’t have many weaknesses outside of their pass defense so look for them to take a corner. While the Patriots will most likely trade down (as is their nature), and if they stay with this pick, they may stretch a little bit to take Aaron Williams.
The Patriots would have liked to take Mark Ingram or Julio Jones, but with them gone they will draft according to their biggest need.
Other options: Mark Ingram, Allen Bailey
18. San Diego Chargers
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Tyron Smith OT, USC
Originally not in my first round, Smith has jumped up to my No.1 OT available. Right Tackle is probably the biggest need for the Chargers as they could also use another LB, but that doesn’t seem essential since they had the No.1 overall defense this past season.
Smith is in the Trent Williams mold of OTs. He is highly athletic, raw, and has the most potential of any OT in the draft.
Other options: Nate Solder, Anthony Castanzo
19. New York Giants
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Anthony Castonzo OT, Boston College
Costonzo is probably the most well-rounded OT in the draft this year, he might not be an elite talent but he is very consistent and those are the types of players the Giants seem to like.
The Giants Tackles struggled at times this year against elite pass rushers, so this pick would go a long way toward giving Eli more protection, which in turn may lower his interceptions.
Other options: Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Cameron Jordan DT/DE, California
Cameron Jordan isn’t the flashiest prospect in the draft but he does all the little things right. Raheem Morris loves guys that play with heart and soul, and he will love Cameron Jordan’s work ethic.
He has had six sacks in each of the last two seasons and a very versatile with the ability to play both DE and DT in the 4-3.
Other options: Adrian Clayborn, Justin Houston
21. Kansas City Chiefs
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Adrian Clayborn DE, Iowa
Think New England Patriots. They never take the flashy player but always take the guy with the all around skills needed to help the team win. Clayborn is that guy and the Chiefs are looking more like the Kansas City Patriots since the arrival of Pioli.
Clayborn had a monstrous junior year but slowed down a little bit his senior year, so he has slid out of my top 20. However, he makes sense for the Chiefs because they need a pass rusher opposite of Tamba Hali and Clayborn can be that guy.
Other options: Justin Houston, Allen Bailey
22. Indianapolis Colts
22 of 32
Stephen Paea DT, Oregon State
Year in and year out, we have the Colts selecting a DT, and for some reason it never works out. Someone needs to jam the middle up and stop the run for the Colts, who rank near the bottom of the league in rush defense every year.
While Paea isn’t one of the elite defensive tackles available, he will serve the needs of the Colts and should start to improve the Colts' poor rush defense.
Other options: Allen Bailey, Gabe Carimi
23. Philadelphia Eagles
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Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Carimi is a big, physical guy that probably doesn’t have the speed needed to protect Vick’s blind side but could be a project LT if he sheds some pounds and works on his foot speed.
Carimi would fit in very nicely on the right side of Vick and the Eagles need all the help they can get on the offensive line after giving up over 50 sacks this season. Carimi is also versatile enough to play guard, making him more valuable than the next best OT, Derek Sherrod.
Other options: Derek Sherrod, Mike Pouncey
24. New Orleans Saints
24 of 32
Justin Houston OLB, Georgia
Since the Saints lost Fujita last season, they are still lacking that presence in the middle of the defense. The Saints will try to do with Houston what the Redskins did with Orakpo and make him a LB.
Gregg Williams will have fun letting this guy loose on the outside, as he has jumped off the charts with 19.5 tackles for loss in the extremely difficult SEC.
Other options: Allen Bailey, Brandon Harris
25. Seattle Seahawks
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Blaine Gabbert QB, Missouri
Matt Hasselbeck isn't getting any younger and Pete Carroll is an offensive minded guy, so look for him to find his QB of the future. The Seahawks traded for Charlie Whitehurst last year but he hasn't exactly made a good first, or second, or third impression on anyone in Seattle.
Many people have Gabbert rated much higher than the 25th overall pick but he is a complete project at QB, the potential is there for Gabbert to be an elite QB but I don't think he is worthy of a top ten selection.
Other options: Allen Bailey, Jonathan Baldwin
26. Baltimore Ravens
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Brandon Harris CB, Miami (FL)
The Ravens' only weakness is their pass defense; the key pieces on the offense are young, so expect them to improve their already stout defense with a future shut down corner. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis would enjoy mentoring another player from “The U.”
Other options: Brandon Burton, Jonathan Baldwin
27. Atlanta Falcons
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Brandon Burton CB, Utah
Brandon Burton only had two interceptions at Utah this past season but was an absolute monster at shutting down his counterparts on the offensive side of the ball.
While the Falcons had a top ten rush defense this season their pass defense was bottom ten, adding another corner in the first round would help the cause. The Falcons also need some help on the offensive line so Pouncey would be another option here.
Other options: Mike Pouncey, Stefen Wisniewski
28. New England Patriots
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Stefen Wisniewski C, Penn State
Just the kind of guy the Patriots like—a versatile offensive lineman that can play both center and guard. At this time, it doesn’t appear that you will see Logan Mankins in a Patriots jersey next year, so the Patriots will just keep trucking along and plugging in guys.
Other options: Mike Pouncey, Ras-I Dowling
29. New York Jets
29 of 32
Allen Bailey DE, Miami (FL)
Cameron Heyward may have improved his draft status enough to inch his way into this pick after an impressive Sugar Bowl. However, I currently have him pegged behind Allen Bailey who is very athletic and is a steal at this point of the draft.
Allen Bailey has all the talent to be an elite NFL pass rusher, but is still raw, his skill set is very comparable to Jason Pierre-Paul. Allen could go higher with a great combine.
Other options: Cameron Heyward, Jonathan Baldwin
30. Green Bay Packers
30 of 32
Derek Sherrod OT, Mississippi State
Aaron Rodgers is constantly running for his life behind his shoddy offensive line. Sherrod is a very good OT who came along nicely throughout this season.
As one of the top tackles in the SEC you are pretty much guaranteed to be selected in the first round and a good combine for Sherrod could move him even higher as this group of tackles are all very comparable.
Other options: Nate Solder, Mike Pouncey
31. Chicago Bears
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Nate Solder OT, Colorado
Someone needs to protect Jay Cutler, and Solder is a good potential addition for them. A former TE, he has made a fine transition to OT but is still raw. The Bears could also use a #1 WR here, so don’t count Baldwin out if the Steelers pass on him.
Other options: Brandon Burton, Jonathan Baldwin
32. Pittsburgh Steelers
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Jonathan Baldwin WR, Pittsburgh
I’m sure Mike Tomlin has taken notice of this guy's skills since he is a local guy and all. Pittsburgh needs help on the O-line, but I’m not sure they are able to pass on Baldwin’s size up at this point.
Baldwin was the lone bright spot for the Panthers offensive unit this year and Hines Ward is not getting any younger. Plus you have Big Ben; who needs an offensive line?
Other options: Mike Pouncey, Greg Jones
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