New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears: 5 Factors That Will Define the Matchup
The Chicago Bears won the NFC North division, while the New York Jets have no shot at the AFC East. Both teams have momentum coming off of great wins. The Bears stomped the Minnesota Vikings 40-14 and the Jets surprisingly went to Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers 22-17.
While the Bears are trying to keep a chance at a second seed in the NFC alive, the Jets are in control of their own destiny for a wild card playoff spot.
Both teams' early season projections have changed since August. The Bears were looked to have a chance at a wild card spot, but the Jets were picked by many to win the AFC East outright. Ironically, both teams have switched positions in December when teams are getting ready to end their season or go for a long playoff run in January.
Now the underrated Chicago Bears and the overrated New York Jets will go head-to-head in Week 16. There are some matchups that could make or break both teams.
Jay Cutler vs. Mark Sanchez
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Jay Cutler has improved every week since the bye. He has cut his interception totals in half since last year and the receiving corps is making strides in the Mike Martz offense.
In the Bears' last four games, Cutler has only thrown three interceptions and has a 104.6 QB rating.
With a more balanced attack, the Bears have become more successful offensively.
Mark Sanchez, on the other hand, has been on a slide as of late. Having Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards has not helped Sanchez in his execution.
In the Jets' last four games, Sanchez has thrown five interceptions and only one touchdown and has an abysmal 54.2 QB rating.
He also has shown that he makes more mistakes on the road and a partial tear in his throwing shoulder won't make the challenge any easier.
When the defenses clamp down in this game, Cutler will use his athletic ability to exploit the blitz and Sanchez only needs to take a few big hits and he could be sitting on the sideline.
Advantage: Bears
Offensive Lines
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The New York Life Protection Index shows a team's aptitude in pass protection. It's basically sabermetrics for NFL offensive lines. The formula is calculated using a proprietary formula. The fundamentals are comprised of the length of a team’s pass attempts combined with penalties by offensive linemen, sacks allowed and quarterback hurries and knockdowns. The Index is based on a 100-point scale.
Chicago Bears
The Bears rank 32nd in the Index with an average of 31.4.
In wins, the Bears average 33.3 and in losses they average 20.5.
The highest score they got was 67.7 in Week 2 against the Dallas Cowboys.
In the last four games, the Bear's Index average is 35.3.
New York Jets
The Jets rank 12th in the Index with an average of 66.8.
In wins, the Jets average a 74.2 and in losses they average 52.6.
The highest score they got was a 81.1 in Week 15 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
In the last four games, the Jets index average is 70.4.
Advantage: Jets
Special Teams
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The Chicago Bears special teams has given them a boost in almost every win. Devin Hester is finally getting to the end zone again and teams are starting to punt away from him. Also, the special teams as a whole has executed their blocking assignments with precision.
Field position in a game against the Jets becomes more crucial because it gives the offense more options on a shorter track. If the Bears gain a lead because of return touchdowns or a short field for the offense, the Jets will have to get out of their comfort zone (running game) and will have to put it in the air more often. This could lead to Mark Sanchez throwing a game-changing interception.
The New York Jets' special teams aren't slouches either. They are just behind the Bears in kickoff return yard average with 26.3 yards, while the Bears have an average of 27.0 yards per return.
Rex Ryan has been quoted as saying that he will not punt to Hester, some even think that the Jets will take the penalty for kicking the ball out of bounds on kickoffs.
If a team is taking flags and losing field position over challenging themselves to stop a big-time threat, that says a lot about the Bears' special teams, especially Hester.
Advantage: Bears
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Cover 2 vs. 3-4 Defense
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The Bears run a base Cover 2, which lets teams dink-and-dunk them to death, but tightens up as a team gets in the redzone. The Bears have been very successful against the run with Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher, but the secondary has questions even though the team has collected 19 interceptions.
The Jets loved to run the ball more before Santonio Holmes came back and the tight ends were targeted more. If the the Jets want to be successful in this game, they will have to take what the Bears give them.
The Jets run a 3-4 defense that has a reputation for exotic blitzes and stopping the run. Having some standout cornerbacks in Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie will look to slow down Chicago's speedy receivers. If the Jets try to pressure with secondary blitzing, the quick slants and and bubble screens could open up for Chicago.
Both teams have a strong defensive mindset and look to stuff the run up the middle. Both teams average under 100 yards per game to opposing running backs and have sack totals in the 30s.
If Julius Peppers can experiment on both ends and find his gaps, he will be a nightmare for Mark Sanchez, but if the Jets' defense gets Jay Cutler to gamble with passes into tight windows, the Bears could be on the losing end.
Advantage: Even
Coaching
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Lovie Smith might not be the most outgoing coach in the NFL, but his style has been effective this year. At the beginning of the season, many fans were calling for his replacement. Whether this is for a lack of emotion on the sidelines, losing on challenges or stubborn play calling, he has once again put the Bears into the playoffs.
On the other hand, Rex Ryan is probably the most outspoken and brash coach in the league. He is a complete polar opposite to the style of Smith. That seemed to work in the 2009 season, but it hasn't been the case this year. One thing that he has done is put all of the spotlight on him, so the players can focus on the game. People have to remember that he has only been a head coach for a short period of time and the mistakes he made this season will be lessons learned down the road.
Both coaches are defense oriented and their teams reflect that.
Their demeanor on the field reflects their teams as well.
The Jets play the disrespect card and build hype, while the Bears just try to be consistent every week and don't get too high or too low.
Currently, Smith's style is paying dividends with the recent success of the Bears since the bye.Ryan's controversies between the sideline interference, the vocal jabs at the Pats and his love of feet have been the headlines, not the team's production.
Two different styles and two different personalities.
Advantage: Bears
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