Last year he disappointed in the follow up season to his 2009 Cy Young campaign. He won only 10 games (16 in ’09), had a 4.17 ERA (2.16 in’09), and struck out 7.40 batters per nine innings (9.50 K/9 in ’09).
He hardly met the expectations of fantasy owners who drafted him in the late second/early third round.
However, a closer look at some of his peripheral stats on his Fangraphs page shows that he might have been a bit lucky in ’09 and not so much so in ’10. There is no need for me to go into detail about why his FIP, xFIP, and LOB% suggest that, just trust me.
It is possible that with all other things being equal, Greinke’s numbers next season might look like they did in 2008, the year before he won the Cy Young: 13 wins, 3.47 ERA, 8.14 K/9 (with peripheral stats consistent with those numbers).
However, all other things are not equal.
With a move to the National League and a better team, the analysis has to change somewhat. With respect to the latter, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Casey McGehee , and Rickie Weeks are a significant upgrade in run support compared to Billy Butler and the eight minor leaguers with which the Royals fill out a lineup card on a daily basis.
Wins are certainly difficult to predict, but the added run support should make it easier for Greinke to get back to 15+ wins in Milwaukee.
As far as the move to the NL is concerned....