
Zack Greinke Traded To Milwaukee: Where Does Brewers Rotation Rank in NL?
Zack Greinke is finally on the move. The Kansas City Royals ace was traded today to the Milwaukee Brewers for a collection of top prospects, including shortstop Alcides Escobar, center fielder Lorenzo Cain and pitchers Jeffrey Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi. The Brewers will also receive shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt and $2 million in cash.
After two months of debate and speculation, Royals GM Dayton Moore pulled the trigger and sent Greinke to as far away from the AL Central as possible. It's the second major trade for the Brewers this offseason, a team that acquired Toronto Blue Jays ace Shawn Marcum for top prospect Brett Lawrie.
But does the combination of Greinke and Marcum suddenly give the Brewers one of the best rotations in the National League? Let's take a look at where Milwaukee ranks among the top five rotations in the league.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
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2010 Stats and Projected Rotation (* indicates a left-handed starter)
- Clayton Kershaw* (22): 13-10, 2.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 204.1 IP, 9.3 SO/9, 3.6 BB/9
- Chad Billingsley (25): 12--11, 3.57 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 191.2 IP, 8.0 SO/9, 3.2 BB/9
- Hiroki Kuroda ((35): 11-13, 3.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 196.1 IP, 7.3 SO/9, 2.2 BB/9
- Ted Lilly* (34): 10-12, 3.62 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 193.2 IP, 7.7 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9 (with Cubs and Dodgers)
- Jon Garland (30): 14-12, 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 200.0 IP, 6.1 SO/9, 3.9 BB/9 (with the Padres)
- Vicente Padilla (32): 6-5, 4.07 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 95.0 IP, 8.0 SO/9, 2.3 BB/9
Analysis
Both Kershaw and and Billingsley are top-of-the-line starters and have been pitching as such for three seasons now. Kuroda has been terrific since coming over from Japan (career 3.60 ERA), and Lilly and Garland are both seasoned innings-eaters. This is a very well-balanced rotation, with the veteran Padilla more than capable of stepping in as a spot starter. Everyone in this group gives the Dodgers a chance to win on any given night, but Billingsley and Lilly are the only ones who have been All-Stars in recent years and none of them have come close to a Cy Young award. That doesn't bode well come playoff time.
4. Cincinnati Reds
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2010 Stats and Projected Rotation (* indicates a left-handed starter)
- Johnny Cueto (24): 12-7, 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 185.2 IP, 6.7 SO/9, 2.7 BB/9
- Bronson Arroyo (33): 17-10, 3.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 215.2 IP, 5.0 SO/9, 2.5 BB/9
- Homer Bailey (24): 4-3, 4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 109.0 IP, 8.3 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9
- Mike Leake (22): 8-4, 4.23 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 138.1 IP, 5.9 SO/9, 3.2 BB/9
- Travis Wood* (23): 5-4, 3.51 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 102.2 IP, 7.5 SO/9, 2.3 BB/9
- Edinson Volquez (26): 4-3, 4.31 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 62.2 IP, 9.6 SO/9, 5.0 BB/9
Analysis
The Reds rotation was hit hard by injuries, with only Cueto and Arroyo making at least 30 starts last season. Volquez, once regarded as the ace of the staff, missed most of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Leake and Wood just made their professional debuts in 2010. With the exception of Arroyo, this is a very inexperienced rotation. But it has the potential to be as good as any in baseball.
Plus, the Reds still have a fireballer in Aroldis Chapman waiting in the wings with an arsenal of pitches that is rumored to be the best on the staff. If just two starters can put together a strong season behind Cueto and Arroyo, then the Reds will be very difficult to beat.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
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2010 Stats and Projected Rotation (* indicates a left-handed starter)
- Zack Greinke (26): 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 220.0 IP, 7.4 SO/9, 2.3 BB/9 (with the Royals)
- Shawn Marcum (28): 13-8, 3.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 195.1 IP, 7.6 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9 (with the Blue Jays)
- Yovani Gallardo (24): 14-7, 3.84 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 185.0 IP, 9.7 SO/9, 3.6 BB/9
- Randy Wolf* (33): 13-12, 4.17 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 215.2 IP, 5.9 SO/9, 3.6 BB/9
- Chris Naverson* (28): 12-9, 4.99 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 167.2 IP, 7.4 SO/9, 3.2 BB/9
- Manny Parra* (27): 3-10, 5.02 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 122.0 IP, 9.5 SO/9, 4.6 BB/9
Analysis
The Brewers had one of the worst staffs in the NL in 2010, posting a team ERA of 4.59. But after acquiring Marcum and Greinke, Milwaukee now has one of the best rotations in all of baseball. This rotation isn't very deep, with neither Naverson or Parra considered a particularly good starter. But Greinke is one of the 10 best pitchers in all of baseball and Marcum and Gallardo are both former top prospects that seem to only be getting better. Wolf is a great veteran to have in the back-end of the rotation. This staff should be especially dangerous in the playoffs, as few teams can match up with the Brewers top three.
2. San Francisco Giants
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2010 Stats and Projected Rotation (* indicates a left-handed starter)
- Tim Lincecum (26): 16-10, 3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 212.1 IP, 9.8 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9
- Matt Cain (25): 13-11, 3.14 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 223.1 IP, 7.1 SO/9, 2.5 BB/9
- Barry Zito* (32): 9-14, 4.15 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 199.1 IP, 6.8 SO/9, 3.8 BB/9
- Jonathan Sanchez* (27): 13-9, 3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 193.1 IP, 9.5 SO/9, 4.5 BB/9
- Madison Bumgarner* (20): 7-6, 3.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 111.0 IP, 7.0 SO/9, 2.1 BB/9
Analysis
Everyone saw what this rotation could do in their run to a World Series championship. But that may have just scratched the surface of the potential of this group, especially considering that Lincecum had a down year (for him) and Bumgarner didn't even join the team until late June. Lincecum is capable of throwing a no-hitter anytime he takes the mound and Cain would be the ace of most staffs in baseball. This rotation has potentially four pitchers who could compete for a Cy Young award, but not much depth if someone gets injured.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
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2010 Stats and Projected Rotation (* indicates a left-handed starter)
- Roy Halladay (33): 21-10, 2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 250.2 IP, 7.9 SO/9, 1.1 BB/9
- Cliff Lee* (31): 12-9, 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 212.1 IP, 7.8 SO/9, 0.8 BB/9 (with the Mariners and Rangers)
- Roy Oswalt (32): 13-13, 2.76 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 211.2 IP, 8.2 SO/9, 2.3 BB/9 (with the Astros and Phillies)
- Cole Hamels* (26): 12-11, 3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 208.2 IP, 9.1 SO/9, 2.6 BB/9
- Kyle Kendrick (25): 12-11, 4.73 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 180.2 IP, 4.2 SO/9, 2.4 BB/9
- Joe Blanton (29): 9-6, 4.82 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 175.2 IP, 6.9 SO/9, 2.2 BB/9
Analysis
Remember how Cole Hamels began the 2009 season as the ace of the Phillies rotation? Well Hamels hasn't gotten any worse. The Phillies just added three more aces who are arguably at least as good as Hamels. Philadelphia has an embarrassment of riches in the rotation thanks to the recent acquisition of Cliff Lee. Four of these pitchers have received serious Cy Young consideration and two of them (Halladay and Lee) each have the pitching award in their trophy cabinet.
Even if the Phillies trade Blanton, as they're expected to do, Kendrick is still a good pitcher who is more than serviceable as the No. 5 starter or as a spot starter for an injured ace. It's not inconceivable for the starters alone to win 90 games, as the Phillies are unquestionably the team to beat in the National League. This isn't just the best rotation in the NL. It might be the best rotation in the history of baseball.

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