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1) New England 14-2
That's easy. Figure they'll win out at home against a Rodgers-less Pack, away at the Bills, and even with a shadow group at home against the horrible Dolphins.
2) Pittsburgh Steelers 13-3
Also pretty easy. Figure they'll pound the reeling Jets at home even without Troy the Destroyer in the defensive backfield, crush the Panthers at home, beat the Browns on the road in Week 17.
3) San Diego Chargers 10-6
Follow the logic. They Win AFC West by winning out against Bengals and Broncos on the road. That leaves them with an 8-4 conference record. They top the Chiefs by the way who also figure to finish 10-6 by virtue of head-to-head point totals as both will finish 3-3 in the division and slip by Colts at this stage by virtue of the thrashing they laid on Indy in Indy a few weeks ago. (Confusing? Of course it's confusing, it's the NFL playoffs, but it's the best I can figure my way through all the myriad tie breakers, and what has providence over what.)
4) Indianapolis Colts 10-6
With most of their offensive parts back in place win out against Jags at home, at the Raiders, Titans at home. Only way they don't get the conference is if they beat the Jags by less than three on Sunday as both figure to finish 3-3 in the division. If they win by three, it'll probably get settled by conference record where the Colts finish 8-4, the Jags 7-5.
5) Ravens 11-5
First Wild Card. Lose to Saints at home, win at Browns, win at home vs. Bengals Week 17.
6) Jaguars 10-6
Second Wild Card. Slip by Chiefs by virtue of 8-5 conference record vs. 7-5 for K.C., after losing to Colts, beating Redskins at home, beating Houston on the road Week 17.
Out: The Jets, because they simply can't right themselves from this season-ending slump, and, well, because they're the Jets.