NFL Week 15 Picks: First-Look Predictions for Every Game
NFL Week 15 will do a lot to confirm who will be in the playoffs and who won't. So far, the New England Patriots are the only team to secure a playoff spot.
By this time next week, there should be a lot more teams making postseason plans. While last week's slate of games produced a lot of average games, this week should provide much better entertainment. Hopefully all the coaches on the sidelines will resist the urge to trip players this week.
You have a big game in Indianapolis as the Jaguars come to town, the Eagles go play the Giants and the Jets travel to Pittsburgh.
The Patriots face the Packers in a game that will decide the Packers' playoff future, and the Saints travel to Baltimore in what is sure to be a very intense game.
Last week I went 10-6, with one of the losses being the Kansas City game. After Matt Cassel had his appendectomy, I said to myself, "Go change that pick." Then I said, "Don't do it, that'll just come back and bite you."
Yeah, always go with your first instinct.
Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 136-72
San Francisco 49ers vs. San Diego Chargers
1 of 16
The San Francisco 49ers and Alex Smith overran the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday, and Smith once again tried to make the case why he should be the starting quarterback of the future for the 49ers.
The San Diego Chargers put themselves right back in the playoff race by destroying the Matt Cassel-less Chiefs, and they pretty much have to win out to make the playoffs.
The Chargers are not the Seahawks, and the 49ers still have too many issues. The Chargers are going to want this game more.
Chargers 31, 49ers 17
Kansas City Chiefs vs. St. Louis Rams
2 of 16
The Chiefs showed last week their offense doesn't work with Brodie Croyle behind center. As of right now, Matt Cassel is planning on playing Sunday, but his effectiveness will have to be questioned.
Ben Roethlisberger had an emergency appendectomy a few years ago, missing one game, and he took a few weeks to really look like "himself" again, so that's what you have to take into account here.
The St. Louis Rams are an NFC West team, but they might be the ones to win the division, and they have Sam Bradford, who is as good as advertised.
The other thing to consider here is that the Rams defense is not the Chargers defense, and the Chiefs still are fighting for their playoff lives.
As much as I hate to pick an NFC West team versus a non-NFC West team, the Chiefs may be in trouble now, and I'm going to have to take the Rams.
St. Louis 20, Kansas City 17
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
3 of 16
The Buffalo Bills pulled a win last week out of Cleveland, but they won't be so lucky with the Dolphins.
The Dolphins have issues this season, one of those being their difficulty winning at home, but last week's win versus the Jets is one of those wins a team feeds off.
The Dolphins, amazingly enough, still are in the race to get a Wild Card, and by beating the Jets, they kept themselves in the playoff hunt.
The Bills actually hurt themselves by winning, and they may already have taken themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes should he declare, so the Dolphins go into this game with more drive to win.
It's going to be a close game because the Bills have this amazing ability to stay in just about every game they play in, and don't be surprised to see another overtime game.
Dolphins 30, Bills 27
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
4 of 16
The Browns have a quarterback problem. Jake Delhomme is still the starter and he's old, immobile and makes bad decisions.
The Browns have a coaching problem. Their offensive coordinator doesn't adjust during the game and the head coach refuses to bench Delhomme despite all the bad play.
The coaches also don't trust any of their players, and as a result, they run the same three plays the defense can call from the bench.
With their backs to the field.
Right now Delhomme is the starter, so even though the Cincinnati Bengals can't seem to find their way out of a paper bag, I'm picking the Bengals.
The law of averages says at some point Carson Palmer will have a good game and the Bengals will steal a game. This looks to be that week.
I reserve the right to change my pick if Delhomme is benched prior to the start of the game.
UPDATE: Colt McCoy now is reported to be taking the first team snaps in practice. This changes everything.
Browns 20 Bengals 10
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
5 of 16
This game is going to be a war. This game pretty much determines who wins the division and who fights a losing battle for a Wild Card.
The Colts looked more like their old selves last week versus the Titans, but can they do it two weeks in a row?
Manning's numbers still are good, and he looked as good as ever last week.
Another thing in the Colts favor is the extra time to prepare after playing in last week's Thursday game. It gives extra time for Joseph Addai and Austin Collie to heal and hopefully get back on the field, and it gives the Colts a chance to just relax.
Jacksonville is playing loose, though, and that could present the Colts with some big problems. The Jaguars are way ahead of where most analysts thought they would be at this point in the season. Some of that is because of the Colts' three-game losing streak, but the Jaguars definitely are playing well.
Maurice Jones-Drew continues to be one of the best running backs in the league and David Garrard is throwing good games, especially in the fourth quarter. While still a bit inconsistent, he's nowhere near as inconsistent this year as he was last year.
Still, I think the Colts have turned a corner and the Jags are in for a rude awakening Sunday.
Colts 28, Jaguars 24
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
6 of 16
We have our first officially meaningless game of the week, and of the rest of the season.
Whatever these two teams do, it will have no effect on the AFC South. In fact, it probably won't have an effect on any playoff races anywhere unless strength of victory somehow comes into the equation.
Either way, the Texans have the better offense, but the Titans can surprise the Texans if Kerry Collins has a good game.
Neither team's defense is very good at the moment, so this could lead to a very entertaining game.
With the problems in Tennessee, and owner Bud Adams talking about replacing Jeff Fisher at the end of the year, the Titans have gone from a postseason guarantee to a complete mess in only two months.
The Texans seem to have the edge when you look at the stats, but in a game like this, the stats don't mean much.
The Texans probably want this game more, as the Titans already look like they've packed it in for the year.
Texans 35, Titans 30
Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
7 of 16
The Redskins can't do anything right. Donovan McNabb is good one week, terrible the next and their field goal unit can't even handle snaps anymore.
The Dallas Cowboys are a new team under interim head coach Jason Garrett, and it's likely he's already been unofficially hired on as the permanent head coach for next year.
This game will be ugly for Redskins fans.
Cowboys 38, Redskins 10
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
8 of 16
The winner of this game pretty much has a lock on the NFC East. With identical records coming into the game, Philadelphia has the slight edge from beating the Giants on Nov. 21.
However, rookie defensive end Brandon Graham tore his ACL in the game, and that's a big blow to the Eagles pass rush. The ability to put Eli Manning under pressure is one of the keys to beating the Giants.
When Manning doesn't have time to throw, he's not as good as Michael Vick at extending the play and getting yards out of it, whether it's from a scramble or a roll-out and dump off pass to the open guy.
However, the Eagles still do have all their offensive weapons, but so do the Giants. And the Giants defense isn't as banged up as the Eagles' is.
Vick is the wild card in this game, as he has been all season. Vick is a threat to run, throw or just do something amazing. Plus, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson are on the field.
But Manning has weapons of his own, and a running game that's one of the best in the league.
This game comes down to who makes the least amount of mistakes, and right now I'm feeling it's the Eagles. If I'm wrong on this one, though, it's not like I'd be shocked.
Eagles 21, Giants 20
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
9 of 16
John Skelton already has demonstrated he's a better quarterback than Jimmy Clausen. Other than that there's not much more to say.
Both teams are bad. Neither team has a lot of talent on defense, and the Panthers are all fighting each other to see who can beat up Clausen first after last week's game.
Cardinals 17, Panthers 9
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10 of 16
The Lions are out of the playoff race, but the Buccaneers aren't. Plus, the Buccaneers are undefeated against teams with losing records.
The Lions threw a new wrinkle into their offense against the Packers last week. According to a report on ESPN, the Lions began moving slot receiver Stefan Logan into the backfield, which confused the Packers defense, as they weren't sure what his role in the play would be.
But the big key to last week's game in Detroit was the loss of Aaron Rodgers, and the Lions still only won 7-3, so I find it doubtful even the Logan variable will have that big of an effect on the game.
Buccaneers 28, Lions 13
New Orleans Saints vs. Baltimore Ravens
11 of 16
This is a game where I think you can break everything down, but it comes down to who wants the game more—and even that's a debatable point of argument.
The Saints now are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL and they've been playing much better over the past few weeks.
The Ravens are a little beat up, but are one of the toughest teams in the NFL, having taken on the Steelers and only lost by three points two weeks ago.
The Ravens defense also defies their stat lines by letting teams back into games in the second half, a mistake the Ravens escaped from on Monday night in overtime.
Drew Brees is throwing more picks this season, though, and he's already matched his total interception line from 2009 with three weeks to go.
Both of these teams could miss the playoffs if they lose one more game, which is astonishing when you look at the Saints' record. But that's just how good the NFC is this year, and that's how things work in the AFC North when the Steelers get double-digit wins almost every year.
The Ravens have home-field advantage, and that has to be taken into account, but I'm feeling the Saints here.
Saints 38, Ravens 31
Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks
12 of 16
I've said this before and I'll say it again: The Atlanta Falcons are the most complete team in the NFL right now.
Period.
The Seahawks can't even get a foothold on the lead of the NFC West.
Falcons 35, Seahawks 10
New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
13 of 16
After seeing what has happened to the Jets over the last few weeks, I'm now beginning to think we are witnessing what will be called one of the game's all-time great collapses.
The Jets absolutely do not stand a chance against Pittsburgh's defense, and that's where the game breakdown begins and ends.
Steelers 17, Jets 6
Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders
14 of 16
Tom Cable wants to keep his job, and so does Jason Campbell.
I'm not sure the Broncos even care they have three more games to play at this point.
Kyle Orton is a mess all of a sudden, and the Broncos defense needs an offseason rebuild in the worst way.
The Raiders have Darren McFadden, who ran all over the Broncos once this year and will do it again. It will be another blowout. The Raiders have a lot of pent-up frustration.
Oakland 48, Broncos 3
Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots
15 of 16
If Aaron Rodgers can't start Sunday, this game is over before it begins, and you can pencil in the victory for the Patriots.
As of this writing, it's not known if Rodgers can play. Assuming he does start, I still don't see the Packers getting a victory.
No one takes advantages of mistakes like a Bill Belichick-coached team, and the Packers' Achilles heel this season has been their penalty-heavy play.
With Rodgers in, the Packers can score and keep the game interesting because there's nothing wrong with the Packers defense.
That being said, the Patriots are playing at a whole different level at the moment, and I'm just not picking against them right now.
With Rodgers: Patriots 30, Packers 21
Without Rodgers: Patriots 42, Packers 9
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
16 of 16
Bears fans rejoice! I'm picking the Bears this week.
Jay Cutler and the Bears are not facing the New England Patriots. They are facing a Vikings team that has no real quarterback, a great running back and a defense that can't be counted on week-to-week.
The Bears will be looking to put on a better show in the cold weather of TCF Stadium, assuming the Metrodome still is unusable (no decision as of this writing).
The Vikings will give Tarvaris Jackson another look, but I just don't expect much out of him. If the game is outdoors and it is as cold as is being predicted, that could have a huge effect on the game, because every single player will be fighting the elements, just the way the Football Gods intended.
Bears 21, Vikings 14
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
