Fantasy Baseball Buy or Deny 'Em: What We Can Expect From Nick Markakis in 2011

Eric StashinDec 14, 2010

Nick Markakis was supposed to be the one middle of the order option that fantasy owners could depend on from the Baltimore Orioles. Unfortunately, all that we got was a major disappointment.

Is it something that we should have seen coming? That’s debatable.

Now, the $64,000 question is if we can expect a rebound in 2011. Before we can answer that question, we first need to look at what he did in 2010:

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629 At Bats
.297 Batting Average (187 Hits)
12 Home Runs
60 RBI
79 Runs
7 Stolen Bases
.370 On Base Percentage
.436 Slugging Percentage
.331 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The average was consistent with what he has done throughout his five-year career, as he has always been between .291 and .306. That’s an extremely solid number and one that, at this point, we have no reason to be skeptical about.

After that, however, things took a dramatic turn for the worse. The power has been on the decline since his breakout 2007 campaign. Let’s take a look at his home run totals, as well as his HR/FB for the past four years:

2007 - 23 HR, 11.6% HR/FB
2008 - 20 HR, 12.6% HR/FB
2009 - 18 HR, 8.0% HR/FB
2010 - 12 HR, 6.1% HR/FB

No matter what you think of Markakis, you have to know that he has more power than this. The problem came when he played away from Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Last season, he hit just four home runs on the road in 320 at bats. The prior three years, he had never hit fewer than eight.

Outside of that, you certainly can put a lot of the blame on the struggles of the Orioles lineup in general.

They were 27th in the league in runs scored with just 613, better than only the Astros, Pirates and Mariners. They were among the worst teams in on-base percentage.

A lot of the problems were centered on the injury to Brian Roberts. He is the sparkplug that helps to make the offense go. Without him, Markakis and the rest of the “thumpers” came up with the bases empty and little to accomplish.

Markakis was actually good with runners in scoring position, hitting .338. Yes, you can argue that he had only one home run, which is true, but it didn’t really matter. He still had 45 RBI in 136 AB. What he needed was more opportunities.

Outside of the return of a healthy Brian Roberts, the Orioles are working hard to improve the power in the middle of the order. With Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy in place, joining Markakis, Luke Scott and Adam Jones, the lineup certainly would appear to be more equipped to score runs.

Yes, you want to say that the move is just a repetition of 2010, when they tried Garrett Atkins, but things are different.

While Hardy is trying to regain his value, Reynolds has never lost his power. He still hit 32 home runs in 2009 and is just a year removed from a 44-homer campaign. He may strike out a ton, but he’s going to provide at least a little bit of protection for Markakis and others.

The bottom line with Markakis is that if you are looking for a 30-home run hitting outfielder, you are looking in the wrong place. While we all hoped that he would develop into that, it clearly just is not what is going to happen.

Does that make him an option that we shouldn’t be targeting? Absolutely not. We just all need to know what we are buying into.

What you are going to get is a .300 hitter with 16-23 home run power and the potential to go 90/90, if not push 100/100 if the lineup around him is producing. That certainly has value in all formats, doesn’t it?

He’s not going to be a top outfielder, but he’s certainly a player I’m going to be targeting in all formats.

While others may downgrade him for the poor season, I wouldn’t ignore him. He’s likely to rebound and will have value.

What about you? Is Markakis someone you would target in your drafts? Why or why not?

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

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