Fantasy Football: 2010 Takeaways to Help You Dominate Your Draft in 2011
The fantasy football playoffs are starting in most leagues this week, and while I made the playoffs in each of my three leagues (I never said I was humble), I can no longer continue to harp on who to start and who to sit per my rosters. Henceforth, I have taken a long look at the last 13 weeks for cues as to what to expect with certain situations in 2011.
Handcuff much?
Who are you taking in the first round next year?
Is Arian Foster, like MC Hammer before him, too legit to quit?
Where should Vick fit into your 2011 planning?
Tight end by committee? What is this blasphemy?
Is Peyton Manning nearing the end of the line?
How about the other Peyton?
What are some things to do in Denver when McDaniels days are dead?
Where does TO land?
What does Meat Loaf and Randy Moss have in common?
FFArmory.com's Tenny Stegman has answers to each of these questions plus a bit more!
Bust Out the Handcuffs: They’re Key
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Anyone associated with the hobby of fantasy football, pundit or otherwise, that tries to tell you that handcuffing is a bad strategy doesn’t have a clue and probably has never won a championship (queue angry response—you can direct them to Stegman@FFArmory.com).
There are two handcuff RBs in the overall top five fantasy RBs (Run DMC and Peyton Hillis), and if you count games started only (vs. games where handcuffs got stuck in for a play or two), there are another nine handcuff RBs in the top 24 RBs in fantasy points per game average (LeGarrette Blount, Chris Ivory, Thomas Jones, LaDainian Tomlinson, Mike Tolbert, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Ryan Torain and Keiland Williams).
I actually drafted Darren McFadden as the handcuff to Michael Bush, who I thought was going to be the real bread-winner in the Oakland offense. Handcuffing enabled me to make the wrong call. Nice.
What Position Are You Drafting in the First Round Next Year?
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In a non-shocking twist of events, no fewer than five (Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Randy Moss, Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams) first-round draft picks once again busted in 2010. So how do we mitigate risk in the first round? When you go position by position, the answers are not so obvious.
There is more disparity between 2010 RB preseason projections vs. actual rankings as of Week 13 than at any other position, and WR is a close second. Meanwhile, QBs remain a stable position to forecast, but with so much depth, drafting Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees isn’t an automatic.
Let’s start with RBs. Five of the top six fantasy running backs through 13 weeks (Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis, Run DMC, LeSean McCoy and Knowshon Moreno) were not drafted on any board within the first 12-15 RBs.
WRs have a similar, but not quite as severe, disparity. Six of the top 10 WRs through Week 13 WRs (Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Terrell Owens, Steve Johnson, Terrell Owens, Dwayne Bowe) were not drafted in any league within the top 12 WRs (unfortunately, we were bold and wise enough to have TO ranked at 13th in the preseason, but the rest of those guys were coming in at 18 or higher on nearly every pundit’s preseason rankings that we looked at including ours).
If you check out the QB preseason rankings, you won’t find any shockers within the current top five: Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. But you can’t just stop there, call it a day, and assume if you draw the third pick overall in 2011 that Aaron Rodgers is the right call. He and Matt Ryan (12th ranked QB) are only averaging a five fantasy PPG difference. Michael Vick, on the other hand, is in a league of his own at QB averaging almost three more fantasy PPG than second place Rodgers.
For my money, if I don’t land the first, second or third pick overall, I'm leaning towards taking a top-tier WR once again like Mega-tron, Roddy White or Andre Johnson. Mega-tron can make do with pretty much any QB you throw his way (Daunte Culpepper, Drew Stanton, Shaun Hill, Dan Orlovksy, Matt Stafford), and ‘Dre and Roddy have studs under center.
Is Arian Foster Legit?
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Let the “is Arian Foster for real” articles start to fly in cyberspace. A quick look back at the last six RBs to lead the NFL in fantasy scoring is all I need to figure this out. (Queue cheesy limerick.)
Chris Johnson does not have a QB.
DeAngelo Williams was in a RBBC.
LaDainian Tomlinson was approaching his 30’s.
Shaun Alexander was given too many carries.
Holy awful limerick, and it’s not even five lines so it probably does not qualify, anyway. Those four RBs have led fantasy scoring among RBs for the past six seasons (Alexander and LT2 doing it two times in a row each from 2004-07).
Chris Johnson led all RBs in 2009 and 2010 has so far brought not just eight, but in a lot of cases NINE in the box as Vince Young keeps getting boo-boos, Kerry Collins is finally showing his age, and rookie Rusty Smith, well, he was drafted in the sixth round and is no Tom Brady repeat.
DeAngelo Williams led the league in fantasy points among RBs in 2008 despite sharing about 180 or so carries with Jonathan Stewart. The chances weren’t good for him to repeat in a RBBC the following year, and very few fantasy ‘ballers targeted him first overall, anyway. He finished seventh in fantasy PPG average to no-one’s surprise.
LaDainian Tomlinson, who led all fantasy RBs in 2006 and 2007, saw his well dry up in 2008 a bit as three straight seasons of 400+ touches finally started to take their toll as he flirted with turning 30 years old. He finished 10th that season.
Shaun Alexander rattled off two league-leading fantasy point seasons in 2004 and 2005, and ended up providing the final proof of ye ol’ “Curse of 350 carries” theory. He toted the ball 720+ carries in those two years, inked an enormous contract the next year, and was basically never playable again. He was 29 years old at the time.
Foster, meanwhile, will be 25 years old by your draft next season, has a better QB than each of the above RBs (except maybe LT2), has an All-pro WR in Andre Johnson which none of the above had, and will have approximately 450 or so career touches in two seasons. Yes, I am concerned about the 395 touches he is currently pacing for, but we are concerned only with 2011, here, and we watched LT2 and Shaun Alexander repeat in each of the last two years with as many touches but less things going in their favor. Foster is the clear No. 1 draft pick in all formats in 2011 barring injury.
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Where Are You Drafting Mike Vick?
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Before Vick was imprisoned for managing the torture and mutilation of pitbulls, he was a fantasy starter-worthy QB from 2003-06 ranking anywhere from fifth-12th over those years. Something happened to this guy in jail, though; he learned how to be an incredibly efficient and able pocket passer while not losing any of the speed that made him worthy of your lineup in the first place.
Lop onto to all of that the fact that he plays in a pass-heavy offense with guys like DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek and LeSean McCoy, and you have the makings of the first QB drafted in 2011. Furthermore, once Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson disappear off the board, he must be contemplated at that third pick in round one.
True, there is a ton of depth at QB with only about a five fantasy point difference between Aaron Rodgers and the 12th ranking QB, Matt Ryan. Vick, though, has Rodgers beat by almost three points per game alone. The value is certainly there, but the main risk is his penchant for injury. There are safer picks, but few with his upside.
What Does T-E-B-C Stand For?
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Dallas Clark owners that pounced on Jacob Tamme are enjoying the extra .8 fantasy points per game he has provided over his injured predecessor. It’s difficult for me to believe that Jim Caldwell and Peyton Manning will just relegate their newfound weapon to the pine in 2011 if Clark is able to stay healthy.
The likely scenario is that the Colts will roll out more two TE sets to frustrate both opposing defenses and us fantasy managers; a TEBC if you will.
The only issue now, is, who to draft in front of them? There is such a distance between Gates and the next best TE going forward that it’s almost unfair, and once he drops off the board, you should maybe take the risk on in round five or six, or not worry about TEs until after you have three RBs, three WRs and two QBs.
Are Peyton Manning’s Days As an Elite Fantasy QB Winding Down?
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I’m going to go with a big, fat, roll-ridden, jelly-filled NO and here’s why:
He is currently fourth among QBs in fantasy scoring and that has come alongside him losing his starting TE, starting RB, and two starting WRs at different times this season.
While there was no immediate drop-off that can be connected to the missed games out of Austin Collie or Dallas Clark, one has to assume that the 11 INTs he’s thrown over the last three weeks could be symptomatic of the myriad mid-season adjustments he has to make with the likes of rookie Blair White and Clark’s backup, Jacob Tamme.
Or what about the fact that he’s got no dependable RB in protection? There have been four different starting RBs in the backfield this year for the Colts (Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Mike Hart and Javarris James). All these losses have to be weighting Manning down a little.
You heard it here first, the Colts will make a serious play for DeAngelo Williams this offseason, and if I’m right, I’m going to go on ahead and rank Manning as the third best QB prospect for the 2011 season.
When Does Peyton Hillis Hear His Name Called Out in 2011?
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Speaking of Peytons...
He is yet another example of why working the waiver wire is critical to fantasy football success. Many hit the snooze button on this kid after he rattled off a couple of TDs in Weeks 1 and 2, and rightfully so. After all, what good are white RBs in fantasy football? Don’t go uttering those words around John Riggins, mind you.
However, Week 3 opened some eyes (144 yards and a TD vs. the Ravens), and those owners that remembered how the Browns’ offensive line was able to block Jerome Harrison to fantasy gold toward the end of 2009 dropped their top ranked claim-order spot quite wisely and have been laughing ever since.
If all he could do is run the ball, I would be screaming “BUST” like many fantasy pundits probably will be prompted to do just to make for interesting fantasy headlines next summer. He does a lot more than run the ball, though. His ability to protect what little QB prowess is left in Cleveland means he won’t be losing his job like his old pal, Jerome Harrison.
It’s his pass-catching ability that has me going bat-crap about his 2011 prospects. Keep a close watch on any key injuries or losses on this offensive line, and assuming there are no red flags in that department, the answer to the proposed question on this slide is a rather large, steaming pile of “Yes”.
The Fantasy Party Is Over in Denver!
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Josh McDaniels has been canned, and with that, the fantasy fat lady has sung in the Rockies.
If you go drafting Kyle Orton among the top six or seven QBs, please email me when you do so I can laugh in your digital face.
McDaniels made several fantasy juggernauts this season to include Brandon Lloyd, Orton, and Knowshon Moreno. Each player will likely take a nose-dive in 2011 irrespective of who they bring in.
McDaniels’ scheme is quite fantasy friendly (see his days in New England as an offensive coordinator—cough Matt Cassel—on top of the last two in Denver), and the Broncos have attempted the fifth most passes in the league. Thirty-six percent of Moreno’s fantasy success this season has been through the air, and McDaniels was not coy with the fact that it was his mission to showcase what Moreno can do in that department.
Will his next coach be so bold?
Where Does He Land and What to Expect from TO?
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Well, he didn’t seem to do a whole lot for the Bengals in the win column, but savvy fantasy GM’s that scooped this enigmatic WR up at a value in rounds five or six in a 12 man league have had expectations exceeded putting it mildly.
After TO was announced a Bengal this summer, Chris Harris, of ESPN fantasy fame, wrote that he had him ranked “about 50th on my receivers list”. LMAO. I offered Harris a bet via Facebook that TO would finish closer to top five than top 50. He’s lucky he’s a busy guy.
Quasi-interesting anecdotes aside, this slide is the first in a long line of future editorial pondering where TO will land in 2011. I think we can safely cross Dallas, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Washington (if McNabb is even still around) and Buffalo off the list for obvious reasons. He will no longer entertain playing for a team that doesn’t have a QB that can get him the ball like Oakland, Minnesota, Carolina, Arizona, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Miami or Tennessee.
Organizations like Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Diego, Green Bay and Indianapolis that put a high premium on player personality would likely not bother sniffing what it would cost. And I’d go so far to cross New Orleans and New England off the list as they are not big into featuring one guy on offense.
The best fit for TO, in order, is as follows (Rosenhaus, if you are reading, here’s your cue): St. Louis, Atlanta, Kansas City, Houston, NY Giants, Detroit and Baltimore.
The Rams are a no-brainer, and didn’t go after him initially because they didn’t want to bury Bradford mentally before he got started. Pairing TO with either Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Mega-tron or Anquan Boldin would be pretty sick; a stud WR opposite plus an able QB?
Frightening to think about, although, Baltimore already reviewed and passed on him earlier this summer. Finally, TO in a Charlie Weis offense? That’s fantasy gold.
If this thing plays out like I outline, I wouldn't hesitate making him a top ten WR next summer. Old, shmold. The guy has been a rule-breaker since he started in this league.
Should We Go on Ahead and Stick a Fork in Randy?
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Most fantasy ‘ballers might be tempted to look at TO’s career trajectory for clues as to how well or not Moss will bounce back from a pretty miserable 2010 campaign. After all, they both have toxic locker room personalities which have been documented on three teams each (Moss = Minnesota, New England, Oakland, and TO = San Francisco, Dallas, Philadelphia), and they both have other-worldly talent with eye-popping career stats. I, personally, chose to draw the lines of comparison there.
Have you ever seen TO loaf it on a play? I haven’t. That does not equate to that he hasn’t in his career, but go ahead and Google “Randy Moss Loaf” and “Terrell Owens Loaf”, and the results for TO are a combination of TO and meat loaf, while Mosses results are riddled with blogs and articles from major publications waxing poetic about what a lazy POS Moss was during whatever game they were reviewing.
Also, while they’ve both lost a step, Moss’s game is much more predicated on speed than TO’s has been over the last couple of years. TO is more physical and much stronger than Moss and better at creating separation with opposing CBs, whereas Moss will rarely go over the middle, and is more of a long-bomb finesse WR with great hands, but again, a loafer mentality. A lost step has affected him much more.
As an NFL coach, assuming skill-set is equal, where is your money going? A toxic personality who also loafs it when he’s not in the mood? Or a toxic personality that wants to win so much that he can’t contain himself, and usually doesn’t (this year withstanding as TO understands that he’s operating on a two-strike count).
Moss will find a home, it will probably be right after TO gets locked up, and how he fares from a fantasy perspective will be determined moreso on his team’s win/loss record. It's a gamble that I am not going to bother with. If he's sitting there in the fifth or sixth round like TO was in most drafts, and he's on a team with a sick amount of potential, you can bet your arse that I'll take the flier based on upside. Perhaps, though, it's a bit early to be forecasting this one, as there are so many X-factors involved.
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