NFL Picks Week 14: Kansas City Chiefs Cover, No Thanks on Chicago Bears
Last week's record against the spread: 4-5
Overall record against the spread: 60-42 (59 percent)
I'm not going to sugar coat it folks, I have botched the last few weeks. I started off strong at one point, being at 67 percent.
Then I got carried away with picking some of the same teams to cover every week, which became a bad idea.
Still, I am sitting at a respectable 59 percent in my picks against the spread, and there are some great games this week for the NFL fans to be excited about.
I'm taking eight games against the spread this week, but I can tell you right now that Chicago to cover or beat New England is definitely not one of them.
Here are the spreads for each game this week.
Indianapolis at Tennessee: Indianapolis -3
Oakland at Jacksonville: Jacksonville -4
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh -8.5
New England at Chicago: New England -3
Cleveland at Buffalo: Buffalo -1
NY Giants at Minnesota: NY Giants -2.5
Green Bay at Detroit: Green Bay -6.5
Atlanta at Carolina: Atlanta -7
Tampa Bay at Washington: Tampa Bay -2
St. Louis at New Orleans: New Orleans -9
Seattle at San Francisco: San Francisco -5.5
Miami at NY Jets: NY Jets -5.5
Denver at Arizona: Denver -5.5
Kansas City at San Diego: San Diego -7
Philadelphia at Dallas: Philadelphia -3.5
Oakland +4 at Jacksonville
Raiders running back Darren McFadden
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Sorry Jaguars fans.
You may have the best record in the AFC South, but I just can't buy you as a serious team.
In fact, not only can I not take you seriously, but I think the Oakland Raiders can beat you.
The Raiders are coming off a huge win against the San Diego Chargers and are sitting at 6-6, which is already better than last season.
They swept the Chargers, demolished the Broncos and took down the division leader Kansas City Chiefs as well.
I'm tempted to take Oakland straight up here, but take them to cover at least.
Cincinnati +8.5 at Pittsburgh
Bengals receivers Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
Pittsburgh is hot right now. Plain and simple.
The Steelers deserve to be on top of the division after the performance they had against Baltimore.
But an 8.5 point spread is just too much to pass up.
The Bengals look horrifying right now as far as their record goes, but they have had some good games this season.
I feel a T.O.chocinco surge coming this weekend.
Take the Bengals to cover.
Cleveland +1 at Buffalo
Browns running back Peyton Hillis
Marc Serota/Getty Images
Cleveland and Buffalo are the two main teams I have found myself picking against the spread every week and it has gotten me into trouble at times.
But it has also paid off at times.
This week, they play each other, and I am absolutely looking forward to it.
With the closest spread of the week, even Vegas knows this is going to be a close one, but I think Vegas picked wrong.
Since you can't really cover a one point spread, take Cleveland straight up over the Bills.
Green Bay -6.5 at Detroit
Lions quarterback Drew Stanton
Leon Halip/Getty Images
This one, I admit, is tricky.
Detroit covered against the Packers last time in Green Bay, losing by only two. I actually made the right pick that week.
Both teams have done a lot of changing since then.
Injuries are hurting both teams and neither is really living up to its full potential.
Still, I smell another close one in the Motor City, and I'm taking the Lions against the spread in this game.
Tampa Bay -2 at Washington
Redskins tight end Chris Cooley
Chris McGrath/Getty Images
Tampa Bay has surprised everyone this season with its ability to hang right in there with the best of them.
Last week, they took the Falcons down to the wire in a game so close that one instant replay could have changed the outcome.
Washington is at home here and is due to make something happen.
The Bucs are a good team, but I'm just not feeling them this week.
Maybe with Albert Haynesworth finally gone, the distractions will be too and the Redskins can get the job done.
St. Louis +9 at New Orleans
Rams quarterback Sam Bradford
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
No doubt about it, this is going to be one tough game for Sam Bradford and the St. Louis Rams.
Coming into the Superdome and coming out with a win is not an easy feat.
With Sam Bradford on his way to a Rookie of the Year award, the Rams are leading the NFC West.
Granted they are doing so with a 6-6 record, but still, I wouldn't be shocked if the Rams have a good game against the Saints on Sunday.
I might not take them to win, but I would definitely take covering the nine point spread.
Seattle +5.5 at San Francisco
Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck
Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images
After two absolutely humiliating losses in the last three weeks, the 49ers are anything but impressive right now.
They have shown signs of improvement here and there, but still have a long way to go before they are the division winner we all thought they would be.
Seattle isn't much better, but it is right on the heels of the Rams for the division lead, and taking San Francisco by 5.5 is an insult to Seahawks fans.
San Francisco might actually pull this one out.
But I would be more tempted to say Seattle will win outright or at least cover.
Kansas City +7 at San Diego
Chiefs receiver Dwayne Bowe
Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images
A week ago if you said Tom Brady would have a field day against the Jets while Philip Rivers struggled against the Raiders, I would have laughed at you.
That only goes to show you just how unpredictable football can be.
Vegas is predicting the Chargers to bounce back and take out the division leading Chiefs by seven.
Personally, I think Vegas is crazy.
I haven't quite figured out yet how the Chiefs are doing so well, but the fact is they are 8-4 and are very close to clinching the division and the playoffs.
The last time these teams faced off in Week 1, the Chiefs won 21-14.
We may not get the exact same outcome, but I'm still willing to bet the Chiefs cover the seven point spread if nothing else.