Boston Red Sox: With Gonzalez Deal Done, What's Next on Front Office's Agenda?
As soon as GM Theo Epstein & Company completed the trade to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, and long before they boarded a plane for Florida to attend the MLB Winter Meetings, their collective attention immediately turned to other priorities. What is next on the agenda?
Epstein has made it clear the club has a couple of needs that need to be addressed this week: a pair of relievers and a right-handed bat.
Priority One At The Winter Meetings: The Arms Race
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The Red Sox front office has historically approached the bullpen based upon the premise that relief pitching is too volatile to warrant long-term, big money commitments to free agent relief pitchers, and statistics support their approach.
But to a certain extent, whether or not the philosophy is sound is irrelevant in the current marketplace. The Red Sox have one of the largest payrolls in baseball, and last year learned (again) that it is penny-wise and pound-foolish to scrimp on the bullpen. Too many games are won and lost in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings, and when the bullpen isn’t up to par the efforts of the rest of the team can get flushed down the toilet. Young fireballer Daniel Bard (pictured) has opined the front office needs to add a couple of arms to the bullpen.
Epstein has previously refused to budge on his refusal to enter into multi-year commitments with relievers, but in a market where the Detroit Tigers will hand out a three-year, $16.5 million deal to Joaquin Benoit, he has apparently decided it is time to re-evaluate his approach. So while he has not been ahead of the curve on this one, he certainly won’t sit by stubbornly as the rest of the world passes by his organization.
Is The Red Sox Lineup Really Too
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The other major priority left unaddressed at this early juncture is a right-handed bat, either in the lineup or on the bench. Epstein is of the opinion his lineup is currently too left-handed, and has said he is inclined to send OF Ryan Kalish back to Pawtucket for “some more Triple-A at-bats.” Right now, the lineup looks like this:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF/LF (lefty)
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B (righty)
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B (lefty)
4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B (righty)
5. David Ortiz, DH (lefty)
6. J D Drew, RF (lefty)
7. Mike Cameron, CF/LF (righty)
8. Marco Scutaro, SS (righty)
9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C (switch)
That’s four righties, four lefties and a switch-hitter... thus, it is really hard to say that the lineup is “too left-handed,” even at Fenway Park, especially when one of your lefties (Gonzalez) is reportedly very proficient at going the other way.
On the other hand, Epstein is certainly correct when he observes that the team is less right-handed than last year, having replaced Adrian Beltre with Gonzalez (switch-hitting Victor Martinez was replaced by the switch-hitting Saltalamacchia, so THAT is a wash).
Assuming for a moment SS Marco Scutaro will return to the club, and Kalish will spend much of the year in Pawtucket, then the Sox bench will be headed up by utilityman Jed Lowrie, and outfielders Darnell McDonald and Daniel Nava. Respectfully, it's not exactly a bench that will intimidate most opposing bullpens.
The Coffers Are Flush With Money
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The Red Sox have lopped off more than $50 million dollars in salary from their 2010 obligations and have approximately $20 million that is designated for new player salaries (Gonzo, Salty) and payroll increases.
Gone are Mike Lowell ($12.5 MM), Adrian Beltre: ($10.0 MM), Julio Lugo ($9.2 million in dead money), Victor Martinez ($7.7 MM), Jeremy Hermida ($3.3 MM), Hideki Okajima ($2.7 MM), Ramon Ramirez ($1.1 MM), Billy Wagner (another $1 million in dead money) and other assorted contracts totaling $2 million.
Those subtractions, balanced with new obligations and the salary increases for existing players, will leave the Red Sox with upwards of $30 million they can expend for the 2011 season. So where do they spend the money, realizing they were slightly over the luxury tax threshold at the end of the 2010 season?
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The Outfield: Carl Crawford Is NOT Walking Through That Door
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Forget about Carl Crawford. After the Jayson Werth contract he will be looking for too much money per annum for too many years. If Werth can command seven years, then Crawford can get eight years, and someone will likely give it to him. If we have learned anything about the Sox, we have learned they will NOT commit big dollars for too many years to anyone, especially to an outfielder whose game is largely predicated on speed. As Crawford ages and he loses his speed, what will be left of his game? The Sox will leave that predicament to the Yankees or Angels or Rangers to worry about...
The eighth year prevented them from signing Teixeira a couple of years ago and got in the way when they tried to sign Gonzalez to an extension this past weekend. So what are we to make of comments last night (from an undisclosed team source) that the Red Sox are still “in” on Crawford? Of course they'll say that: being "in" on him will help to drive the market and increase the price for their rivals.
Magglio Ordonez? Nope. The Tigers want to keep him, and he likes Detroit. The Tigers had dabbled with the idea of bringing Werth on board, but that door has been slammed shut… the club has also discussed Carl Crawford, but I don’t expect he will want to go there (if you have ever been to Detroit, you understand what I am talking about). So I expect Odronez to stay put.
Other free agent possibilities:
Johnny Damon? Jeremy Hermida? Manny Ramirez? Nope, been there, done that on all three accounts!
Melky Cabrera? The former Yankees outfielder will be looking for a starting gig somewhere, but will likely have to settle for a platoon situation. He’d be a really good fit for the Sox on a one-year deal, as he would give quality depth and buy time for Kalish to get a little more seasoning in AAA… but, the guess is that he will be able to get a two- or three-year deal somewhere with a more significant role than the Sox will offer.
The Outfield: If Not Crawford Or Ordonez, Then Who?
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The most likely scenario has the Red Sox filling their outfield need through the trade route.
They have long been enamored with OF Josh Willingham (.268, 16 HR, 56 RBI in 2010), the former Marlins and current Nationals outfielder. He was one of the guys the Red Sox considered when they decided to trade Manny Ramirez a couple of years ago. As we all know, the Sox eventually acquired Jason Bay in that deal, but they have always remained enamored of Willingham.
He would be far less expensive than Crawford or Ordonez. His acquisition would also leave money freed up for a couple of relievers, another bat, a midseason acquisition, and/or taking a last-minute run at Cliff Lee (a la the Yankees two years ago in the Teixeira sweepstakes).
The Bullpen: Expect Theo To Free Up Some Money Without Going Crazy
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IMO, you can forget about Grant Balfour and Scott Downs, as they are Type A free agents... and I don’t believe the front office would consider surrendering a first-round pick for a reliever, even a great set-up man. Ditto for Randy Choate and Pedro Feliciano, lefty free agents who were classified as Type B free agents and who were offered arbitration by their teams.
So who does that leave? IMO, these are the guys who are the most likely to attract the attention of the guys on Yawkey Way:
Righties: Kyle Farnsworth, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Koji Uehara, Kerry Wood
Lefties: Brian Fuentes, J P Howell, Ron Mahay, Arthur Rhodes, George Sherrill
Fuentes, Guerrier, Rauch, Rhodes, Uehara and Wood are all Type A or Type B free agents who were arbitration-eligible, but who were not offered arbitration by their clubs.
Fuentes and Wood will both be looking for a closer’s job at bigger money and more years than the Red Sox will commit to, so I don’t expect the Sox to land either of them.
Rauch and Uehara both spent part of 2010 closing and it appears they'll look for a closer's job in 2011. I don’t expect either will actually get a job as a closer, so they may be in play for the Sox. The question is how long they will hold out in the hopes of landing a closer’s job... and how long the Red Sox want to wait to solidify the bullpen.
For those reasons, it seems likely the Red Sox will be aggressive in their pursuit of both Guerrier (5-7, 3.17 ERA, 1.099 WHIP in 2010) and Rhodes (4-4, 2.29 ERA, 1.018 WHIP in 2010), and I expect they will sign one or both of them within the next ten days.
Could The Red Sox Try To Strike A Fatal Blow To The Yankees?
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Will they make a run at Cliff Lee? Theo Epstein may have something big up his sleeve, and Lee would be another huge coup for the Sox.
It is no secret the Yankees want Lee desperately, but based on comments from people who know him, it doesn't appear his persona is a great fit for New York City. Boston would offer him an equal chance to win in a smaller market.
And wouldn’t the Red Sox just LOVE to give the Yankees a taste of their own medicine by swooping in to sign Lee at the last minute. New Yawkers would then understand how we felt when their team stole Mark Teixeira out from under our nose at the 11th hour two years ago.
Take that!
Lee would be expensive ($25 million per season), but it says here the Sox would do it if they are able to unload Daisuke Matsuzaka and the majority of his salary—which is a distinct possibility. The Sox would likely have to eat a significant part of his salary, but if it enabled them to steal Lee then it seems likely they would do so. Heck, they ate a huge chunk of Julio Lugo's salary a couple of years ago with much smaller incentive.
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