MLB Trade Rumors: 10 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Should Acquire Zack Greinke
With the 2010 MLB Winter Meetings heating up, everyone is waiting to find out whether the Yankees, Rangers or perhaps another suitor will win the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. No matter what team Lee ends up choosing, his decision is sure to set off a chain reaction in the baseball world, as Lee's signing will be just one major move in what promises to be a busy winter.
Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Zack Greinke might be the second hottest topic this offseason, as the Royals seems poised to trade away their Cy Young award winning ace to the highest bidder. Teams that lose out on acquiring Cliff Lee via free agency will be forced to focus their pursuit on the services of Greinke.
The Cliff Lee saga may have passed for the Minnesota Twins this past July when they were unable to make a trade happen, but as we move towards 2011 Zack Greinke appears to be on the radar for Twins management. Given the disappointing finish to this past season and some uncertain circumstances heading into 2011, the Twins would be wise to do whatever possible to bring Greinke to Target Field.
Will Pavano Leave?
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For most of the 2010 season, starting pitcher Carl Pavano anchored the Twins' rotation. Pavano's 17-11 record in 2010, combined with his 3.75 ERA and seven complete games make him a sought after free agent this offseason.
Pavano was brought in late in the 2009 as a last minute acquisition, but proved to be worth it as he finished the 2009 season strongly, and ultimately would lead the team to a postseason birth. The Twins would be quickly dismissed in the division series by the New York Yankees (heard that story before?) and spent the rest of the playoffs watching on television like the rest of us.
Pavano is a type A free agent that will likely cost somewhere in the ballpark of 30 million dollars over the next three seasons (possibly more). Pavano has turned down an offer of arbitration by the Twins, so if the pitcher signs elsewhere the organization will be compensated with sandwich draft picks. That being the case, the organization would still much rather have some stability in their rotation than the potential for improvement through compensatory draft picks.
Shaky Starting Rotation
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Assuming Pavano leaves for greener pastures, the Twins will be left with an 'ace' in Fransisco Liriano, and a group of question marks. Liriano had an overall impressive 2010 campaign, putting up a 14-10 record with a 3.62 ERA in 31 starts. Liriano hurled 201 strikeouts in 191 innings pitched - while walking less than three batters per nine innings.
Beyond Liriano however, the fortitude of the rotation comes into question. Nick Blackburn started off the 2010 season relatively strong, pitching an especially effective month of May after a demotion in the early spring. By midseason however, Blackburn had returned to normalcy, and would eventually be demoted to the bullpen in favor of left hander Brian Duensing, who performed admirably down the stretch, perhaps securing a place in the rotation for the foreseeable future.
Starting pitcher Kevin Slowey had an effective 2010 campaign, finishing with a 13-6 record in 30 starts. Slowey did rely on run support at times, as his 4.45 ERA was below the bar that his record had set. Health issues also nagged Slowey during the 2010 season, as trips to the disabled list could put his longterm effectiveness in the rotation in question.
The Twins Won't Have To Face Him...
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While this might be a skewed reason, as the Twins have been relatively successful against Greinke, one would be crazy to think that the team would rather face Greinke on the mound than have him on their side. Greinke went 0-4 against the Twins in the 2010 season, but there were multiple outings where Greinke took a solid line into the middle innings of the game, only to find that the lineup backing him up couldn't keep pace.
Greinke's WAR (wins above replacement) is among the best in the league, and the Twins would surely take their chances against any starting pitcher the Royals have to throw out if it meant they wouldn't have to battle Greinke for runs.
...But The Rest Of The Division Will
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While the Twins would be free from having to face Zack Greinke multiple times per year if they acquired the ace, the rest of the division won't have that luxury. The Tigers, White Sox, Royals and Indians would all have to face Greinke in 2011, most on multiple occasions.
In Greinke's last three seasons versus the Tigers, White Sox and Indians, the Royals ace has compiled a 14-10 record, striking out 220 batters in 227 innings pitched. The numbers that Greinke has able to put up are certainly strong, especially given the caliber of the talent that the Tigers and White Sox have been able to put on the field over the last few years.
Having those numbers on the Twins' side in the roughly 76 games the Twins will play against division opponents in 2011 would certainly come in handy, and could definitely be used to build a significant lead in the division as the season progresses.
Division Rivals Are Stocking Up
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As the 2010 season wrapped up, the Twins were relatively silent. The team had made a massive move in the previous offseason in signing catcher Joe Mauer to a long term contract, but it remained unlikely that the organization would walk into this offseason with a wallet quite as open.
As the Twins remained quiet from an acquisitions perspective, the rest of the division wouldn't follow suit. The Tigers acted first in signing catcher/1st baseman Victor Martinez. Martinez hit .302 with 20 home runs in the 2010 season, and will surely bolster the Tigers lineup which has been seeking much needed consistency.
The White Sox made perhaps the biggest splash thus far in free agency with the signing of Adam Dunn to a four year, 56 million dollar contract. Coming off a 38 HR, 103 RBI season, Dunn will certainly add some additional strength to the White Sox lineup. Ensuring that the Sox would continue to set the standard for power in the AL central, the team resigned slugger Paul Konerko to a three year, 37.5 million dollar contract. Adding Zack Greinke to the rotation would do wonders towards helping the team matchup effectively against these talented lineups.
Twins Have Enough Depth to Make Offer
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Trading for a player with as much talent as Zack Greinke never comes cheap. This is especially true when trading within the same division. If the Royals are going to trade their ace to a division rival, they will no doubt require top dollar, and the Twins would quite possibly have to overpay to acquire his services.
Luckily, the Twins have a very deep minor league system, and just might have the pieces to pry Greinke away from the Royals. Whether or not the Twins will be willing to part with their prized prospects may be another story.
It's rumored that it could cost the Twins both pitching prospect Kyle Gibson, and outfield prospect Aaron Hicks to bring Greinke to Minnesota. The Twins would likely be unwilling to part with both of these players, as they are close to the top of the rankings for the entire Twins system. It's far more likely that the Twins would try to package a deal together containing one of the two top tier prospects, and secondary prospects such as outfielder Ben Revere or Joe Benson.
Low Salary Impact
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While Greinke certainly isn't operating on a rookie's salary, he doesn't have a contract that replicates other Cy Young award winners. Greinke is owed 27 million dollars over the next two seasons, which isn't far off of what two years of service from Carl Pavano would cost the team.
Greinke may not be interested in immediately extending his stay in Minnesota, but restructuring Greinke's contract if added to the roster could prove to be a longterm cost saving measure depending on how management is able to manipulate the finances.
Need a 1-2 Punch in The Playoffs
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In thinking of the best pitching rotations in major league baseball, you'd be hard pressed to find a team that would fit into that category with only one strong pitcher. Throughout the course of the long seasons that baseball brings, teams often have to shuffle around their rotations multiple times.
In most instances however, successful teams have more than one strong pitcher that stands out among the rest. More than one pitcher who has the capability to miss bats and get much needed strike outs in pressure situations.
Adding Zack Greinke to a rotation that already has an ace type pitcher in Fransisco Liriano would further solidify the Twins powerful stance in a playoff series. With the current playoff format allotting five games for the division series, having two dominating arms to throw out against opposing teams is a definite advantage.
The Team Has Money to Keep Him
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The Twins' first year in Target Field brought about a new era in Minnesota baseball. Aside from the team rediscovering the great outdoors, the Twins also found profitability. The ownership has always indicated that the payroll of the team would be a function of it's profitability, which would explain why the team's payroll was among the lowest in the league for so many years.
The Twins have shown their willingness to spend money recently, handing large contracts to both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Even with the amount of money that will be dedicated to these players for the foreseeable future, the revenue generated by the new stadium should provide enough profit to retain Greinke for a longterm stint when his contract expires after the 2012 season.
They Have To
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In 2010, the script read the same as it has every October in recent years. The Twins played phenomenal regular season baseball, only to falter in the playoffs. Twins fans are a very proud group, but are growing increasingly frustrated by the roadblock that presents itself every time the ALDS comes around.
Simply put, the Twins organization needs to make a move that will show the fan base that the team is making the improvements needed to get over the hump. The Twins rely on drawing a big amount of excitement from franchise players such as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, but that excitement won't last if the team continues to make it a one and done occasion every fall.
With the rest of the elite teams in the league making moves to improve, especially division rivals like the Tigers and White Sox, it is increasingly important that the Twins make the move to acquire another ace to combat the onslaught they are sure to face. Greinke's familiarity with the Twins and the rest of the division would be a strong asset as the season progresses, and would quite possibly provide the spark that Twins fans need to gear up for a 2011 season as magical as the 2010 season shaped up to be.
