Cliff Lee: Is He Really Worth a 7-Year Deal?
Cliff Lee is one of the bigger stories coming out of the baseball winter meetings. The word is that he wants a ton of cash as well as the security of a lengthy contract.
The cash is one thing. Teams have shown they don't mind throwing money at the problem, just as long as they can guarantee that their prized athlete is at or near their top of their game for the duration of the contract.
The latest word is the the Nationals are prepared to offer the pitcher the seven year contract he craves at $20-25 million a year. Can the left handed hurler be considered a value at such a lengthy and expensive contract? Let's take a look.
5. Yes: Nobody Better
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Sure Cliff Lee is asking for the world. Look at the competition. There is nary a reliable starter in the bunch. I would much rather overpay on Cliff Lee than Carl Pavano or Brad Penny. Both of which will not command as much as Lee, but whatever you pay for them you are getting taken.
Couple that with the fact that the teams that are mentioned in the Lee Sweepstakes should be looking at value over prestige. Except of course for the Yankees, cash is Monopoly money to them.
5. No: Better Value
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Granted there is only one Cliff Lee on the market. That does not mean there is not value to be had on the open market. This note is especially for the Nationals who will not contend for much next year.
This is rebuilding time for some teams. Spending you entire budget on two players is ridiculous for any team let alone for the National who just broke the bank for Jayson Werth.
Chris Young looked to be the real deal before he was sidelined for the year due to injury. Or what about Jeff Francis. He would be a 4.00 ERA pitcher or lower outside of Colorado. At 29, you get more years out of him.
The point is, you can get a few players on the market for what one Cliff Lee delivers.
4. Yes: Left-Handed Stud
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It is one thing to have a great starting pitcher to anchor your staff. It is quite another to have a lefty be there. The Nationals do have one thing correct, a southpaw ace is invaluable.
The lefties are a different breed. Their fastballs have more movement than some righties junk. Cliff Lee is one of the best. With most starting pitchers being right handed, it is priceless to be able to throw a different look at the opposition.
my one concern is where Lee fits in with the Yankees. Lee is a pure ace. They already have one in C.C. Sabathia. I have learned not to question the Yankees and their spending sprees.
4. No: Not The Best In Baseball
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If you spend that kind of money for that many years, you better be buying the best. Cliff Lee is not the best. He ranked sixth overall in 2010 in ERA. But my real argument is the post season.
All of these teams are out for different things. The Yankees want to get over the hump and win a title. The Nationals are trying to build a winning culture from the ground up. The rest of the teams in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes lie somewhere in the middle.
But for that money, everyone will want someone that can and will win the big game. Lee pitched twice in the World Series. The Rangers traded to get him for that specific reason. He was lit the first time around for six runs and was a bit better in his second attempt. He went seven and change giving up three earned runs.
3. Yes: 40 Is Not Old
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Well, 40 is not old in baseball years. Many players play well into their late thirties. At 32, Lee would be 39 to start his final year of his contract.
This is a different age where players and pitchers play much longer and deal much better with age. Greg Maddux was able to lose velocity and paint the corners for the final years of his contract. Tom Glavine did the same. Lee has a repertoire that boasts a fantastic change up and curve. He could make the rest work if he loses some of his fast stuff.
3. No: Steroid Era
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Of course players well into their forties. We are at the denouement of the Steroid Era. Players were, as it seem, juiced out of their minds. So players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were just as good if not better than their younger playing days.
Those days are gone if not trickling to a halt. Whatever Cliff Lee gives at age 37 and on is all him. Do you really thing that a 32 year-old Cliff Lee will give you what a 39 year old will? That is why a seven-year deal is much to long to give to anyone.
2: Yes: Better On Your Team
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This is the fear of most teams. There may come a time during the season when you have to face the guy that you missed out on in the off season. It's the reason the Yankees wanted Roy Halladay so badly. They had an idea that he would kill them in the World Series. It turns out both the Phillies and the Yankees did not have to worry much about that.
But the luxury for some teams is the ability to overpay just so another contender does not land the best in the baseball. I would put the Yankees in there and now must put the Nationals there too. It seems that they are up and comers in the market. They bought Werth, are trying to nab Lee, and are tying to steal Carlos Pena.
I don't know where this money comes from. No one watches their games.
2. No: Jamie Moyer and Greg Maddux
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I mentioned Greg Maddux earlier as someone who made it work. Which he did. But he and pitchers like Jamie Moyer hit a wall. Their ERAs hit a blip that took them up from the 3.30 area into well above 4.00. That wall was right around the age of 40.
That being the case you have to expect Cliff Lee to at some point hit the same wall. How can you pay for Cliff Lee at that point. Would you dole out $20 for a one year contract for Greg Maddux or Jamie Moyer when they hit 28? I didn't think so.
1. Yes: True Ace Invaluable
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Many general mangers and players will tell you that having a true blue ace in the hole is invaluable to any club. They almost guarantee a win every fifth game. They may be one player, but the keep a streak alive or kill a slump before it turns cancerous.
Lee is the only Ace on the market. Some teams out there are in desperate need of one, the Nationals included. Lee instantly bumps the club into one that should be respected. Immediately hitters will circle their schedules assuming they will face the lefty once during the Washington trip. There is a lot of value to the psyche that creates.
1. No: Injury
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This is the most important reason that you do not give a 32 year old athletes a long contract, no matter the sport. You lock up the young studs, not the aging lefty.
Injury can occur at any time or not at all. Lee could remain healthy until he retires. But the prudent thing is to sign him to at most four or five years and jump off that bridge of over paying when he is up for re-negotiations.
The worst case scenario is that he blows his arm out as soon as he inks the deal. Where will your millions be then. We have seen it plenty in Darren Dreifort, Kerry Wood and the infamous Mark Prior situation.
Conclusion
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My feeling is that this has become a players market. The likes of Scott Boras and other super agents have overblown the salaries of certain players. This is an instance where one team, the Nationals, are willing to pay what they think it will take to land the southpaw.
But in reality, even the Yankees see seven years as a bit much. That should tell you that this deal is awful. You will get the best of Cliff Lee for a few years. After that you are paying $20 millions for a second tier pitcher.
So, no. Cliff Lee is not worth the seven year deal.
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