SpreadSHREDDER Week 13 Record ATS: 0-3
Overall Record ATS: 17-18-1
Overall Record vs. Wagering Total: 2-2
The SpreadSHREDDER went 0-3 for the second time in history, but that simply means we now must do our best impression of GM by bouncing back and then shooting a commercial telling people about how we bounced back.
JACKSONVILLE (-5) OVER OAKLAND
While it is unacceptable for the No. 1 teams in the NFC and AFC West to have such perennially weak divisions, there is a plausible reason as to why these divisions catch such annual hell in NFL.
The Eastern time zone is the geographical authority in the NFL, and oftentimes teams from out West must adjust to these time zones, negative body clocks and all.
Come Sunday, the Raiders must travel across two time zones to play the Jacksonville Jaguars at 1 p.m. EST, which is really 10 a.m. Raider time as opposed to the Raiders' regular start time of 1 p.m. PST.
This is bad news indeed, as in their last seven games in the Eastern time zone, the Raiders are 1-6 ATS. Keep in mind that of their last six losses in the Eastern time zone, the Raiders lost those games by an average of 24.67 points.
Now, while handicapper stats like that are for marks, it is the fact that these particular stats are able to be explained (see first three paragraphs) that intrigues us to pick against the Raiders in this spot.
The Raiders will be coming off of an emotional divisional win against the Chargers, and must now try to stop the second-best running team in the league with a piss-poor run defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL.
Expect a flat Raider team to get blown-out by a Jacksonville Jaguars team with playoff hopes as Oakland continues its Jekyll (PST) and Hyde (EST) act.
CLEVELAND (+1) OVER BUFFALO
All the Cleveland Browns do is run the ball with a superior running back in Peyton Hillis, and all the Buffalo Bills do is give up big yards and touchdowns on the ground.
The Browns have been fantastic against the spread vs. teams from the AFC East this season (their only loss came in overtime against the Jets in a fluke finish), mainly because Eric Mangini used to coach in this division during his days as head coach of the New York Jets.
Sure, the Bills have a new coaching staff, rendering some of Mangini's intel virtually useless. But this should play even more into the Brown's hands as this team hitting its stride gets to play a Bills team under a first year coaching staff in a game that has proved to be Cleveland's specialty this year: Smash mouth, cold weather football. Peyton Hillis should have a big day as the Browns roll in Buffalo.
ATLANTA (-7.5) OVER CAROLINA
The Atlanta Falcons know that a win in Carolina will bring them one step closer to a division crown, and they cannot afford to slip up with the Saints coming on strong late.
The Falcons will look to run the ball, with a surging Michael Turner, against one of the worst run defenses in the league, and an improved secondary will look to take advantage of poor quarterback play from Jimmy Clausen.
Despite this being a road contest for the Falcons, there's value in the current line as the Falcons play a meaningful game against a lame duck coaching staff within their own division, and we're jumping on the line early before it inflates to near-double digits.
Many may feel that this is a 'trap' spot for the Falcons, but fear not Falcon fans: Your choke job is waiting for you in Seattle next week.