NFL Week 13 Picks Against The Spread: Selecting This Week's Winners

Dmitriy Ioselevich@dioselevSenior Analyst IIIDecember 3, 2010

NFL Week 13 Picks Against The Spread: Selecting This Week's Winners

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    SEATTLE - NOVEMBER 27:  Snow falls during the Seattle Seahawks game against the Green Bay Packers on November 27, 2006 at Qwest Field in Seattle, Washington. The Seahawks defeated the Packers 34-24. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)
    Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

    It's December and you know what that means... MORE FOOTBALL!

    On a more serious note, however, the changing weather does toss a new dynamic into this week's games. Can teams withstand the bitter cold and high winds? For most of the NFL, it's just business as usual.

    But some warm-weather teams (Miami, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston, Dallas, Arizona) might struggle playing football up north where the sun isn't shining any more.

    So with that knowledge in mind, here are this week's picks.

    Note: I've already previewed all of the games here in my weekly picks column, but without the spread. For more detailed info on each game please see my original column here

Houston at Philadelphia (-8.5)

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    HOUSTON - NOVEMBER 28:  Wide receiver Andre Johnson #80 of the Houston Texans is congratulated by Mike Brisiel after scoring in the first quarter at Reliant Stadium on November 28, 2010 in Houston, Texas.  (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
    Bob Levey/Getty Images

    Shutting out a team that has Rusty Smith starting at quarterback should not be a cause for celebration in Texans camp. This week they face a real team: the Eagles.

    Both teams have high-octane offenses, so it's difficult to imagine a blowout. Philadelphia will win by a touchdown.

    PICK: Texans

    Note: This pick was made prior to Thursday's game but, because of the news cycle, was not published until Friday. I swear, really.

Washington at NY Giants (-7)

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    EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - NOVEMBER 28:  Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants in action against the Jacksonville Jaguars during their game on November 28, 2010 at The New Meadowlands Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
    Al Bello/Getty Images

    The Redskins lost to the Vikings last week. Any team that is bad enough to lose to Minnesota should be manhandled by the Giants. Good luck staying on your feet, McNabb.

    PICK: Giants

Denver at Kansas City (-8.5)

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    SEATTLE, WA - NOVEMBER 28:  Wide receiver Dwayne Bowe #82 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates with Tony Moeaki #81 after scoring a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks to take a 20-7 lead at Qwest Field on November 28, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. The
    Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

    Considering the Chiefs got absolutely crushed the first time they played Denver this season (49-29), picking Kansas City to win by more than a touchdown seems a bit silly.

    The Chiefs should win, but it will be a relatively close game.  

    PICK: Broncos

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-3)

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    EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - NOVEMBER 28:  Maurice Jones Drew #32 of the Jacksonville Jaguars carries the ball against  the New York Giants during their game on November 28, 2010 at The New Meadowlands Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  (Photo by Al Bello/
    Al Bello/Getty Images

    No idea why the Titans are the favorite in this one. No team that gets shut out by Houston should ever be favored to win, especially against a pretty good Jacksonville team.

    I like the Jaguars to win this one outright.

    PICK: Jaguars

San Francisco at Green Bay (-9)

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    GLENDALE, AZ - NOVEMBER 29:  Runningback Brian Westbrook #20 of the San Francisco 49ers carries the football on a 8 yard rushing touchdown against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie #29 of the Arizona Cardinals during the second quarter of the NFL game at the Un
    Christian Petersen/Getty Images

    Some may point to Frank Gore's season-ending injury as evidence that the 49ers are sunk. But I don't believe that.

    Gore is a great player, but the San Francisco offense overused him. This is a team that also has guys like Michael Crabtree (one of the league's best young receivers) and Vernon Davis (literally impossible to cover).

    Brian Westbrook won't be that much of a downgrade from Gore, and the 49ers will be able to keep this game to within a touchdown.

    PICK: 49ers

Cleveland at Miami (-4.5)

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    CLEVELAND - NOVEMBER 28:  Running back Peyton Hillis #40 of the Cleveland Browns scores a touchdown as he runs from safety Sherrod Martin #23 of the Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns Stadium on November 28, 2010 in Cleveland, Ohio.  (Photo by Matt Sul
    Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

    The only time in the last five weeks that the Browns have lost by more than 4.5 points was Week 10 against the New York Jets, and that's a game that went to overtime.

    Cleveland doesn't get blown out (largest margin of defeat this season is 18 points) and Miami isn't capable of blowing a team out (largest margin of victory this season is 16 points). Guess what that means?

    PICK: Browns

Buffalo at Minnesota (-5.5)

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    CHICAGO - NOVEMBER 14: Brett Favre #4 of the Minnesota Vikings hands off to Adrian Peterson #28 against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on November 14, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the Vikings 27-13. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Ima
    Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

    The Bills have looked good lately. The Vikings have looked like the Vikings (and not the 2009 version). 

    Also, the Bills haven't lost by more than three points since Week 5. It'd be a minor miracle if they were to lose by at least six to Minnesota.

    PICK: Bills

Chicago (-5) at Detroit

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    CHICAGO - NOVEMBER 28: Jay Cutler #6 of the Chicago Bears looks for a receiver against of the Philadelphia Eagles at Soldier Field on November 28, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the Eagles 31-26. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
    Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

    Interesting factoid here: the Lions already lost to the Bears this season by exactly five points.

    Vegas is betting on a repeat performance, but I can't see it. The Bears are too good and the Lions are still the Detroit Lions. Enough said.

    PICK: Bears

New Orleans (-6.5) at Cincinnati

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    NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 30:  Sportsman of the Year Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints speaks during the 2010 Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year Celebration  at IAC Building on November 30, 2010 in New York City.  (Photo by Jemal Countess/Getty Ima
    Jemal Countess/Getty Images

    Here are the Bengals' margins of loss for their last eight games, in chronological order: 3, 3, 7, 8, 6, 6, 18, 16.

    Now here are the Saints' margins of victory in their last five games, excluding their loss to Cleveland in Week 7: 15, 10, 31, 15, 3.

    Does anybody really expect this game to be close?

    PICK: Saints

Oakland at San Diego (-13)

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    INDIANAPOLIS - NOVEMBER 28:  Philip Rivers #17 of the San Diego Chargers throws a pass during the NFL game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 28, 2010 in Indianapolis, Indiana.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
    Andy Lyons/Getty Images

    Don't get too excited by the Chargers stomping of Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. Or by their stomping of the Broncos a week before. This is still a team coached by Norv Turner, after all.

    The Raiders look terrible after losing by a combined score of 68-20 in the last two weeks. But they've got enough fight in them to keep this game within two touchdowns.

    PICK: Raiders

Carolina at Seattle (-6)

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    SEATTLE, WA - NOVEMBER 28:  Head coach Pete Carroll of the Seattle Seahawks looks on during the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Qwest Field on November 28, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
    Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

    Any time the two starting quarterbacks in a game are Jimmy Clausen and Matt Hasselbeck, you know it's going to be a game that is won on the ground.

    These two teams would be lucky to put up 30 points between them, so a line of six seems rather high.

    PICK: Panthers

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+3)

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    ST. LOUIS - NOVEMBER 21: Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons passes against the St. Louis Rams at the Edward Jones Dome on November 21, 2010 in St. Louis, Missouri.  The Falcons beat the Rams 34-17.  (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
    Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

    The Bucs are wildly overrated even with a 7-4 record, and Matt Ryan will show the NFL exactly why that is. 

    The Falcons already beat Tampa Bay by six points earlier this season, and the Bucs were lucky to be that close.

    PICK: Falcons

St. Louis (-3.5) at Arizona

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    KANSAS CITY, MO - NOVEMBER 21:  Quarterback Derek Anderson #3 of the Arizona Cardinals sits on the field after failing to make a first down during the game against the Kansas City Chiefs on November 21, 2010  at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
    Jamie Squire/Getty Images

    Derek Anderson might have something to prove in this game if he wants to keep his starting job, so this game should be close. Or he'll be benched after the first quarter and the Rams will win easily.

    I don't think Anderson deserved to be attacked by the media, and I think he's good enough to do something about it. Look for him to silence his critics with a big game.

    PICK: Cardinals

Dallas at Indianapolis (-5.5)

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    INDIANAPOLIS - NOVEMBER 28:  Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts walks off of the field after throwing an interception during the NFL game against the San Diego Chargers at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 28, 2010 in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Char
    Andy Lyons/Getty Images

    Manning's looked unusually human against two very good teams (Chargers, Patriots) the past two weeks. Lucky for him, the Cowboys are not a good team. The Colts need a big victory and this is their chance.

    Can't set the point margin high enough for this one.

    PICK: Colts

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-3)

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    CHARLOTTE, NC - NOVEMBER 21:  Joe Flacco #5 of the Baltimore Ravens against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on November 21, 2010 in Charlotte, North Carolina.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
    Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

    These two teams are about as evenly matched as you can get. They've played once this season and the Ravens won by three, so the line seems appropriate. 

    But the Steelers didn't have Ben Roethlisberger in that game. They have him now. He alone should be worth three points.

    PICK: Steelers

NY Jets at New England (-3.5)

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    EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - SEPTEMBER 19:  Tom Brady #12  of the New England Patriots looks on against the New York Jetsduring their  game on September 19, 2010 at the New Meadowlands Stadium  in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
    Al Bello/Getty Images

    Some might be surprised to see the Patriots favored in this one. But considering that the game is on New England's turf, and that the Patriots look as good as ever, a 3.5 line is probably fair.

    Belichick has something to prove in this game, however, and he never loses to the same team twice.  

    This game will be close, but I don't think it will be that close. 

    PICK: Patriots