NFL Predictions for Week 12: Picks Against the Spread for Every Game
The Thanksgiving edition of the all of the NFL picks against the spread is here.
There is nothing better than watching a football game that you have a few bucks on after a nice Thanksgiving meal. Now the hard part is just picking winners.
Before we get on to the picks let’s do a quick recap of last week’s plays. When I narrow my picks down to five on game day my record is actually pretty good, but when it comes to picking every game my record was one game under .500 last week finishing at 7-8.
My overall record on the year is 73-82-2 against the spread (ATS), but I will press on hoping the Turkey day games bring me some luck and not indigestion.
On to the games for Week 12.
New England at Detroit
1 of 16
Week 12 NFL Odds:
Lions+6.5 (-110) /Patriots -6.5 (-110)
Total: 50 points : Over (-110), Under (-110)
Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will spend their Thanksgiving in Detroit as they take on the Lions. I have a full length game preview here, but to make it quick I believe the Lions can win this game.
The latest NFL sports betting line for this game posted by Bet Revolution has the Patriots listed as 6.5 point favorites and it seems like they are keeping it below a touchdown to attract that Patriot money.
Not this guy, I’m on the Lions. The Lions offense is decent through the air and that is where the Patriots are vulnerable as they rank 30th in the league in pass defense. The Lions are surprisingly good pass rushers as they rank sixth in sacks and that means pressure on Brady.
The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 6-0 ATS in the last six games against teams with winning records.
The Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite and will be looking past this game as they have a Monday night meeting with the Jets next week.
Lions +6.5
New Orleans at Dallas
2 of 16
The New Orleans Saints travel to big D to face the resurgent Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The latest NFL odds for this game posted by Bet Revolution have the Saints listed as four point favorites.
As much as I hate to admit it, the Cowboys are looking much better since they fired Wade Phillips and it actually looks like they are trying on the field. The Cowboys have won back-to-back games and the offense has scored over 30 points in each game.
Jon Kitna is not putting up glorious stats but he is not hurting his team either and Dez Bryant is an absolute monster on the field. The Cowboys have won four straight on Turkey day and have an overall record of 27-14-1.
The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win and 6-13 ATS in the last 19 games against the NFC. The Cowboys are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games in November and the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six games of this series.
How bout dem Cowboys?
Cowboys +4
Cincinnati at New York
3 of 16
The New York Jets will host the Cincinnati Bengals in the nightcap of the NFL triple header. The latest NFL odds released by Bet Revolution have the Jets listed as nine point home chalk in this game.
The game may not be any good but so far the trash talking has been fun. T.O. spoke out about Revis in response to Revis calling T.O. a slouch, should be a fun match up to watch.
The Jets are 4-10 against the spread (ATS) in their last 14 games as a home favorite and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 12.
I like to bet on teams that are off an embarrassing game and the Bengals fit that mold after they were stomped at home by Buffalo, giving up a huge lead. I look for the rebound and a close game, so I am taking the points.
Bengals +9
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Green Bay at Atlanta
4 of 16
In what could be a preview of the NFC Championship game the Atlanta Falcons host the Green Bay Packers. The latest NFL odds released by Bet Revolution has the Falcons listed as two point favorites.
This could easily be the best game to watch this weekend. Both teams are playing very good football and are led by great young quarterbacks. The Falcons are one of the best home teams in the league and Matt Ryan is nearly invincible on his home turf, but in this game I am going with the Pack.
Aaron Rodgers is looking like an MVP and skewered the Vikings in his last game out. If the Falcons do have a weakness it has to be in their secondary. They are improved from a year ago but still ranks 24th against the pass.
The Packers are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog.
The Falcons are 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record and they are just over matched in this contest.
Packers +2
Minnesota at Washintgon
5 of 16
Week 12 NFL Odds:
Minnesota +1 (-110) / Washington-1 (110)
Total: 43 points : Over (-110), Under (-110)
If you like drama, make sure to tune in when the Washington Redskins play the Minnesota Vikings. The Latest sports betting line posted by Bet Revolution has the Redskins as one point favorites, but this game is a toss-up.
The Vikings recently fired Brad Childress and will hope to get a boost from the change at the top, much like the Cowboys did after firing Wade Phillips.
Meanwhile the on again off again drama in D.C. seemed to have died down when the Redskins beat the Titans in overtime, but stay tuned.
The Redskins are decent as small home chalk as they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. The Vikings are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 and 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. I wouldn’t touch this game, but since I pick on every game, I will take the home team in what should be a close game.
Redskins -1
Pittsburgh at Buffalo
6 of 16
Week 12 NFL Odds:
Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110) / Buffalo +6.5 (110)
Total: 42 points : Over (-110), Under (-110)
The Buffalo Bills are riding a two game winning streak when they play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. The latest NFL Odds as posted by Bet Revolution have the Steelers listed as 6.5 point favorites.
This game fits one of my favorite handicapping angles. Play on a team that won outright on the road as an underdog and is a home underdog the next week. The theory here is that the team will ride their previous success and play good the next game as well.
The Steelers are obviously the better team but has some trends against them this week.
The Steelers are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 14 points. The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games overall.
The Steelers are on upset alert and I would not be surprised if the Bills win their third game in a row.
Buffalo +6.5
Titans at Texans
7 of 16
This week the Tennessee Titan travel to Houston to take on the Texans but they are surrounded by plenty of controversy. The latest NFL odds posted by Bet Revolution have the Texans as 6.5 point favorites.
The relationship between head coach Jeff Fisher and Titans QB Vince Young hit another rough patch when Fisher told Young not to show up for a team meeting. This was due to how Young reacted after he was not put back into the game against Washington. Fisher is handling it all in stride but it had to be a distraction for the team this week and now Rusty Smith gets the call at quarterback. Oh boy.
Can things get any worse for the Texans? They are playing good football but a porous defense has let the last two games slip away from them in the waning minutes of the game. The Texans ranks 31st in the league in total defense and although the Titans will be starting a rookie signal caller they still have a great running back in Chris Johnson.
The Underdog is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings and the Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six against the AFC South and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.
The Titans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and could win this game on the field. Titan’s owner Bud Adams really wants to beat Houston every year and Fisher will make sure it happens.
Titans +6.5
Jacksonville at New York Giants
8 of 16
The New York Giants will look to rebound after a tough loss when they host the streaking Jacksonville Jaguars. The latest NFL odds released by Bet Revolution have the Giants listed as a seven point favorite.
This is another game that I would take a pass on if I were not picking every game. The Jags should get stomped in this game. They rank poorly in both offense and defense categories but they are playing with plenty of heart. They have had two come from behind wins the last two times out, but I don’t see it against the menacing Giants defense.
The Jaguars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, and 1-7 ATS against a team with a winning record.
The Giants are just too much to handle for this Jacksonville team.
Giants -7
Panthers at Browns
9 of 16
Week 12 NFL Odds:
Browns -10(-110) /Panthers -10 (110)
Total: 38.5 points : Over (-110), Under (-110)
The Cleveland Browns will have a new quarterback this week when they host the hapless Carolina Panthers. The latest NFL odds released by Bet Revolution for this game have the Browns listed at ten point favorites.
Jake Delhomme will start in place of Browns rookie quarterback Colt McCoy who has a high ankle sprain. That’s a shame since McCoy looked like he was on his way into developing into quite the young leader of this promising Browns team.
Last week I bet on the Panthers and felt like a genius when the score was close late in the game against the Ravens. Then after two interceptions that were returned for scores I realized I had been suckered again. That is when I put them on my list of teams I will never play on again this year and then I saw this line.
The Panthers are not a very good football team, but they don’t quit and they play somewhat decent defense. In fact they have better defensive statistics then the Cleveland Browns.
The Panthers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team with a losing home record and the Browns are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a loss against the spread. Here I go again.
Panthers +10
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
10 of 16
When the Baltimore Ravens host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers it will be a matchup of two teams that are 7-3 on the season. The latest NFL odds released by Bet Revolution have the Ravens listed as 7.5 point chalk in this game.
The Buccaneers are easily one of the surprise teams of the year. They are in the hunt for the division title and Josh Freeman has emerged as one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league. The oddsmakers are not impressed as this line is bigger than most would have thought.
The main reason is that the Bucs do not match up well with the Ravens. The Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS against a team with a winning record and can beat up on losing teams, but not the big boys. When they have faced a team with a winning record they have been beaten badly and that won’t change this week.
The Ravens are 25-10-3 ATS in their last 38 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 44-19-1 ATS in their last 64 games as a home favorite. The Ravens take it to the Bucs and cover the big number.
Ravens -7.5
Kansas City at Seattle
11 of 16
Week 12 NFL Odds:
Chiefs -1.5 (110) /Seahawks +1.5 (110)
Total: 43 points : Over (-110), Under (-110)
The Kansas City Chiefs will attempt to hold on to the division lead when they play in Seattle. The latest NFL odds released by Bet Revolution have the Chiefs listed as 1.5 point favorites.
Do you think the Chiefs are in panic mode yet? The Chargers are making a run at the AFC West and playing very good football. Meanwhile the Chiefs need to keep winning and doing that in Seattle is never easy.
For as bad as the Seahawks have looked on the road, they are a very good home team. Pete Carroll has this team headed in the right direction they are just missing a few parts. Since they play in the weak NFC West they are right at the top of the standings.
The Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 and 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite overall. The Seahawks are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a winning road record and the home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
I will take the points and the home team.
Seattle +1.5
Eagles at Bears
12 of 16
Two of the most impressive teams in the NFC play one another when the Philadelphia Eagles play the Chicago Bears. The latest NFL sports betting odds released by Bet Revolution have the Eagles listed as 3.5 point road favorites.
The Eagles have won three straight on the arm and legs of quarterback Michael Vick. They beat the Colts and followed that up with back-to-back division wins over the Redskins and the Giants. Asante Samuel is day-to-day with a minor knee injury and has not been able to practice this week.
The Bears have also won three straight games and are winning with a dominating defense. They had extra time to prepare for this game as they last played last Thursday, shutting out the Dolphins 19-0. The Bears have turned into a legit contender for the NFC and will prove it against the Eagles.
The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 2-5 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
This should be a close hard fought game, so I will take the points.
Bears +3.5
St. Louis at Denver
13 of 16
The St. Louis Rams travel to Denver to take on the Broncos this Sunday. The latest NFL odds released by Bet Revolution have the Broncos listed as four point favorites.
The Rams are playing much better this year then they have had in the past thanks to rookie quarterback Sam Bradford. They lost a disappoint game last Sunday against Atlanta and will have to try and regroup to face Denver. The Rams were a bit concerned with the altitude and running back Stephen Jackson even considered making a purchase to help him prepare.
“I was actually looking into getting a hyperbaric chamber,” Jackson said. “During my research a lot of people said it wasn’t a huge difference. And I opted to not have to go under and did the (oxygen) tent thing. I chickened out.”
Denver was beaten down on the road against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. The season for the Broncos is just about over and a poor performance against the Rams could easily end it.
The Broncos are 5-20-1 ATS against a team with a losing record, 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 games as a favorite, and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss. The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog and I will take the points.
Rams +4
Miami At Oakland
14 of 16
Week 12 NFL Odds:
Miami /Oakland
Total: N/A points : Over (-110), Under (-110)
The Miami Dolphins will travel to the west coast to take on the Oakland Raiders this weekend. The latest line has not yet been posted by Bet Revolution because the status of some Dolphin players is unknown at this time.
Miami has a quarterback question because head coach Tony Sparano hasn't named a starter. Tyler Thigpen and Chad Henne took snaps with the first team on Wednesday. The injury to wide receiver Brandon Marshall has also put his status in question. Regardless the Dolphins are struggling right now.
The Raiders are having a good season and will be eager for redemption after getting pasted by the Steelers.
The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game and 5-1 ATS in the last six games overall. I will take the Silver and Black at home against a Dolphins team that is in turmoil.
Raiders
Chargers at Colts
15 of 16
The San Diego Chargers play against the Indianapolis Colts in a game that will feature two potential MVP candidates in quarterbacks Peyton manning and Phillip Rivers. The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by Bet Revolution have the Colts listed as three point favorites.
Manning and the Colts just lost to the Patriots and will try and rebound against the Bolts. The Colts offense, although plagued with injuries, looks good but the defense is just awful and ranks 20th overall in the league.
On the other side of the field the Chargers are making another late season push to the AFC West title. If you like stats, you will love the Chargers. They have the No. 1 ranking on total offense and total defense. Anytime I can get a team like that plus the points, I am all over it.
The Colts are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0 and the underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings. The Chargers are 21-6-3 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Chargers should win this game on the field but I will take the points.
Chargers +3
San Francisco at Arizona
16 of 16
The Monday Night Football crew has to be disappointed with the teams they selected for this week as the pitiful San Francisco 49ers take on the Arizona Cardinals. The latest NFL odds as posted by Bet Revolution have the 49ers listed as one point favorites.
Before the season started this game could have been seen as a battle for the division title, but now it’s just a game of two bottom feeders trying to stay alive in the ugliest division in football. Both teams only have three wins but still have an outside shot at winning the division and both teams come into this game off a loss.
The 49ers lost at home to Tampa Bay and were shutout 21-0, while the Cardinals were embarrassed on the road by the Chiefs.
This is going to be an ugly game to watch but I will back the home divisional underdog in a prime time game.
The Cardinals are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a home underdog and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. The 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite, 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
Arizona +1
Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews and predictions. Feel free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com.
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