NFL Picks Week 11: Will Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions Cover?
Last weeks against the spread record: 4-2
Overall against the spread record: 47-27 (63%)
Yes, you read that right.
Cleveland, Buffalo and Detroit will all cover against the spread.
Even though I have had a couple of good weeks recently and still only one week with a losing record, I am not hitting that 70% marker like I would like to.
Which means I have to go bold this week.
And I am confident this week is the best week to do just that.
With 12 picks against the spread this week, here are the lines for each game.
Chicago at Miami: Miami -1.5
Oakland at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh -7
Houston at NY Jets: NY Jets -7
Baltimore at Carolina: Baltimore -10
Washington at Tennessee: Tennessee -7
Detroit at Dallas: Dallas -6.5
Green Bay at Minnesota: Green Bay -3
Buffalo at Cincinnati: Cincinnati -5.5
Cleveland at Jacksonville: Jacksonville -1.5
Arizona at Kansas City: Kansas City -8
Seattle at New Orleans -11.5
Atlanta at St. Louis: Atlanta -3
Tampa Bay at San Francisco: San Francisco -3
Indianapolis at New England: New England -3.5
NY Giants at Philadelphia: Philadelphia -3
Denver at San Diego: San Diego -10
Chicago +1.5 at Miami
This was a late pick for me.
I realized Tyler Thigpen was starting at quarterback and something hit me.
He's not that good.
With the Bears looking pretty good right now sitting on a 6-3 record coming off a big divisional win against Minnesota, it's hard to think they will lose to the Dolphins.
With the spread only being 1.5, to bet against the spread on this one is to take the Bears straight up.
And I'm okay with that.
Houston +7 at NY Jets
Houston is coming off a heart-breaking and controversial loss to the Jaguars.
This week, things won't get any easier as they will go into the New Meadowlands Stadium to face one of the stingiest defenses in the league.
Houston definitely has their work cut out for them to win this game.
However a seven point spread is definitely manageable for the Texans.
Take Houston to cover.
Washington +7 at Tennessee
Tennessee stunk it up against Miami last week.
But I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Washington had a much worse game against Philly last Monday night.
Tennessee will be looking for redemption and I expect them to get it at home by beating the Redskins.
Still, the 'Skins are going to be looking for redemption as well and taking them to cover isn't that crazy.
Detroit +6.5 at Dallas
The Cowboys new head coach, Jason Garrett, is coming off a much needed win against their division rival Giants.
With some smart play calling and aggressive coaching, Dallas is feeling optimistic about their future, even with a 2-7 record.
Still, Detroit has been in just about every single game this season barely losing to the Bears, Eagles, Jets, Packers and Bills.
What makes Vegas think this game is so different?
Take Detroit to cover.
Green Bay -3 at Minneosta
Call this one a hunch.
Barring a very unlikely playoff game against one another, this will be the last time Brett Favre suits up against his old team.
I know Favre has had some rough times this season, but he is still Brett Favre.
Maybe this is just me pulling for the silver fox to have the last laugh, but I'm going to be taking the Vikings to win.
Though, if you're not as optimistic you could take Minnesota to at least cover.
Buffalo +5.5 at Cincinnati
The Buffalo Bills are coming off their first win of the season.
Which for them, means they are on a hot streak.
Buffalo lost the previous three games by a total of nine points and have somehow been able to hang in there with the opponents before finding a way to lose at the last minute.
I do expect Cincinnati to win this one, but I'd be surprised if the Bills don't at least cover here.
Cleveland +1.5 at Jacksonville
I love Cleveland right now.
Somehow, I find myself wanting to pick them against the spread every time they are the underdog.
They spanked the Patriots and came from behind to nearly tie the Jets last week.
Peyton Hillis is one mean white boy and Colt McCoy seems to be exactly what the doctor ordered.
Jacksonville is capable of winning this game, but I'm taking Cleveland against the spread here.
Arizona +8 at Kansas City
I will be honest with you here.
I'm taking this game against the spread mostly because the spread is rather high at eight points.
Kansas City is becoming a divisional favorite and Arizona will likely finish last in their division so taking the Cardinals to win straight up is a little much for me.
But I can definitely see the Cardinals keeping it within eight to cover.
Seattle +11.5 at New Orleans
Again, here is a game I am taking against the spread mostly because the spread is rather high at 11.5.
New Orleans has been sketchy against teams they were supposed to blow out of the water this season and Seattle isn't the worst team in the league.
Surely they can keep it within 11.5 to cover.
That's what I'm going with at least.
Tampa Bay +3 at San Francisco
Here is a game full of questions.
Can Troy Smith earn the permanent starting job?
Will LeGarrette Blount make a statement as the new primary back in Tampa?
The list goes on.
I expect this game to be very close.
So close in fact, Tampa will cover.
Indianapolis +3.5 at New England
The Colts-Patriots rivalry has become one of the best rivalries in the NFL since Dallas and San Francisco in the 90's.
Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are bound to have big games when they go up against each other and without a doubt this is the game of the week in my opinion.
New England is coming off a huge win against Pittsburgh while Indianapolis was able to beat Cincinnati despite a poor performance from Peyton Manning.
Regardless, if this game is won by more than three points I will be surprised.
Hence, I am taking the Colts to cover.
Denver +10 at San Diego
This will be one of the biggest shootout games of the week.
The only thing either team is really capable of is throwing the ball.
Both Kyle Orton and Philip Rivers are two quarterbacks who have been able to air it out all season, despite less than amazing receiving cores.
I'm not sure if Denver can pull off the upset and win this one, but it wouldn't surprise me.
Take the Broncos to cover this generous 10 point spread.