When Is the Right Time For the Yanks to Call the Quits?

As of July 30, the Yankees (68-60) stood one game behind the Wild-Card leading Red Sox (74-54). After the completion of today’s games, the Yankees, 5-5 in their last ten, sit six full games behind Boston for the Wild Card. At this point in the season, catching the Tampa Bay Rays (78-49) appears to be out of the question for the Yankees.

Tampa is in control of the American League East, holding a 4.5 game lead over Boston and a 10.5 game lead over New York. New York’s slumping offense has really played a huge role in their plummet down the standings. Every few games it seems like the Yankees are going to put an end to their offensive woes, but every spark of offensive life is put out the next day.

Who is to say that the Yankees’ nine run effort against Baltimore tonight is a sign of more runs in the near future? After all, the Yankees have not scored five or more runs in back to back games since August 3-4 -- both Yankees losses. Yankees fans can only hope that the offense heats up to the level it was at in the middle and end of July.

If these sparks of offense catch fire, baseball could be surprised by a Yankees comeback. Also, Joba will be returning to the Yankees rotation sometime in the next week. The Yankees are slated to play a three game set against Boston next week, following the remaining two games against Baltimore this weekend.

These next five games have the potential to determine the Yankees’ postseason fate. If Girardi can walk away with five straight W’s, the Yankees will be in good shape. That will close the gap between New York and Boston to a manageable difference with a month to play.

However, if the Yankees lose five straight or stay where they are in the Wild Card standings, their season could potentially be ruined. There will be one month of baseball remaining after the series against Boston. As of right now, six games is not an unwieldy amount to make up, but with time, it will become more difficult.

Also, the Red Sox are not the only team in front of the Yankees in the Wild Card race. The White Sox and Twins, who are tied for the American League Central lead, are 5.5 games ahead of New York. Here’s the deal. Boston’s magic number to beat out the Yankees in the Wild Card race is 29.

This means that any Boston win or Yankees loss takes away one from 29. Even if both teams win the two games prior to the Red Sox series, Boston’s magic number will be 27. With a sweep of New York, Boston’s magic number would be down to 21 with a month left to play.

At that point, the Yankees would not stand much of a chance of catching the Red Sox. If the Yankees can get within three games of the Wild Card by the end of their series with Boston, New York’s playoff hopes will still be alive, but if they remain five or six games out, it might be time for the Yankees to consider abandoning the season.

Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over,” but the Yankees might as well let some of their minor leaguers experience some September baseball if their chances of earning a playoff spot are meager.