NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread

Every week, I pick three NFL games against the spread (ATS). Here are my three picks for Week 7:

Ravens -14 (over Bills)

Typically, I prefer to avoid teams facing opponents that are coming off their bye week. For a second week in a row, I'm going against my own tendency and picking the Ravens against an AFC East team coming off their bye.

On the season, the Ravens (15.8 points allowed per game) have allowed 16.4 fewer points than the Bills (32.2 PPG) have allowed this season. Through six games, the Ravens have scored more than 20 points in only two of their games. The glass half full view would be they've scored more than 20 points in all of their home games.

The Bills have allowed 182.4 yards per game on the ground ranking them last in the league in rushing defense. Although their pass defense is better than their rush defense, they have only one interception through five games, which ranks them last in the league. Last year, they had 28 interceptions, which was second in the league.

Falcons -3.5 (over Bengals)

The Falcons looked awful against the Eagles last week. Before that game, however, they were only one long overtime run by Pittsburgh's Rashard Mendenhall away from a perfect record. So, which one are they?

One game doesn't make a trend.

The Falcons return home and they are a combined 15-3 at home since 2008. During that same span, the Bengals are 6-13 on the road.

Typically, three points of the spread are attributed to the "home-field advantage." In other words, Vegas is saying that the Falcons are only a half-point better than the Bengals on a neutral field. I'm not buying that.

So, here I go, picking against another team coming off their bye week, but I think last week's horrible showing in Philly by the Falcons has artificially lowered this spread to an unjustified level. Look for the Falcons to bounce back big this week.

Browns +13 (over Saints)

The Saints will be without running backs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush for another week although Chris Ivory had a big week last week against the Bucs. For the first time this season, the Saints scored 30-plus points. Even so, 11 other teams have scored more points per game than the Saints (21.7 PPG).

Against the Steelers last week, the Browns played surprisingly well with rookie Colt McCoy under center in his first-ever career start. McCoy had good rapport with tight end Benjamin Watson and completed nearly 70 percent of his passes.

While I don't expect the Browns to win this game, I expect them to keep it closer than 13 points.

For picks by our two other "handicappers," check out TheWeeklyBlitz.com. For fantasy football information and rankings, check out TheTipDrill.com.

Also, the Week 7 thread of our free fantasy football contest is open. New entries are welcome and encouraged.